Bulls vs. Heat: From Rose to LeBron, Every Player's Potential Impact on Series
This type of post season excitement hasn't been seen in the Windy City since the guys with the statues played in the United Center.
The newest Bulls great leads a young upstart Chicago team, one year ahead of schedule into the biggest series of their lives.
I have assessed each player on both teams, measured their potential positive impact to their teams and predicted their likely effect on this series.
Lastly, I've predicted who I believe will win this series and the NBA championship.
Miami Heat: Joel Anthony
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The Heat’s under-sized center works hard, knows his role and happily accepts it. He is a below-average rebounder for his position and every pivot player he’ll oppose in this series is a better rebounder.
He will need to step up on the boards, most of all to take pressure off of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. As good a rebounders as both of them are at their positions, it’ll take a lot out of them to have to board to win.
Anthony needs to excel in this area to give the Heat a chance to compete in the battle on the glass.
Potential Impact: +35
Noah and Asik are too big and athletic for Anthony, this should be a rough series for him.
Likely Impact -10
Chicago Bulls: Rasual Butler
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I'm not sure why the Bulls even signed Butler. It seemed as though he could've been an option at the two guard as Bogans was struggling at the time of the acquisition.
The Bulls didn't pull the trigger on moves that could've brought in OJ Mayo or Courtney Lee. So when Butler was signed, it seemed as though he would potentially get an opportunity to play that role.
Potential Impact: 0
Butler has only seen mop-up duty for the Bulls and don't expect any difference in this series.
Likely Impact: 0
Miami Heat: Mike Bibby
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The aging Heat point guard has not become the floor general and veteran presence they’d hoped he’d provide when they acquired him.
Bibby was never a defensive stalwart, and he is a shell of the mediocre defender he was earlier in his career.
He struggles in an offense where he doesn’t control the ball. He is not an off-the-ball point guard in the mold of a John Paxson.
Anytime he is in the game matched up against Derrick Rose, the MVP will eat his lunch and take his appetite for dinner.
Potential Impact Rating : +15
The best hopes for an effect on this series for Bibby will be to nail some big shots from beyond the arc as LeBron or Wade kicks it out to him in desperation.
Likely Output -15
Chicago Bulls: Kurt Thomas
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"Big Sexy" has played well whenever Thibodeau has called on him, as a starter or reserve with unpredictable minutes. That is what you want from a veteran, and Thomas has delivered.
Kurt didn't see a lot of time against Atlanta because he didn't match up well against the Hawks athletic front line.
The Heat are nowhere near as athletic up front, so Thomas could play a role defensively and hitting that consistent 15-foot jump shot.
Potential Impact: +10
Also expect the veteran to lay the hammer on a couple Heat superstars as they drive to the hole.
Likely Impact: +10
Miami Heat: Juwan Howard
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The veteran Power Forward from Chicago Vocational High School, the “V” to us South Siders, is on the down side of his career. He plays valuable bench minutes for Miami and will likely match up with Carlos Boozer or Taj Gibson when he’s in the game.
Offensively, he won’t be asked to do more than make a 15-footer or two per game.
Potential Impact: +20
His biggest impact will be solid post defense, spelling Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony.
Likely Impact: +5
Chicago Bulls: Ronnie Brewer
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Brewer is one of the Bulls' best defenders, though he doesn't offer much on offense. His defensive versatility will be available in this series as he can spell Bogans or Deng, guiding LeBron or Wade.
The problem for Ronnie comes in on the other end, as he allows the Heat to almost play five on four.
He loves to run the baseline and slash, but that doesn't take much pressure off of Rose.
Potential Impact: +10
Expect to see his assignment cheat off of him like a Tony Parker text message.
Likely Effect: -10
Miami Heat: Eddie House
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The veteran sharp shooter hasn’t been so sharp lately. House tallied six DNP-Coaches Decisions so far in this post season.
When he is effective, he is a deadly escape valve for penetrators. His lack of size and foot speed makes him a liability on defense.
If you want to know what House on Rose looks like, see Mike Bibby times 48.
Potential Impact: +5
We are not likely to see much of Eddie House in this series unless Derrick Rose snaps Mike Bibby’s ankles Kathy Bates, Misery style.
Likely Impact: 0
Chicago Bulls: Keith Bogans
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Bogans was much maligned early in the season. He plays solid defense and doesn't have a complicated role on offense.
If he makes 40 percent from three-point range, he is exceptionally valuable to the Bulls attack.
He must keep Wade or Chalmers honest. If shoots the ball the way he did against Atlanta, then he will give the Bulls a huge lift.
Potential Impact: +20
Bogans is tough, though he is a bit hobbled, I think he'll continue to shoot it well.
Likely Impact: +15
Miami Heat: Zydrunas Ilgauskas
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Big Z is a 7-foot-3 jump shooter at this point in his career. He is incapable of moving his feet, as they are battered and torn from surgeries and NBA campaigns.
He is a big body, which, coupled with his savvy, can be somewhat valuable on the defensive end.
Potential Impact: +10
Much of this can be negated by any and every Bulls pivot player lapping him up and down the floor.
Likely Impact: -10
Chicago Bulls: Omer Asik
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The big man from Turkey has shown why the Bulls were willing to wait for him to arrive stateside. He is the Bulls best low-post defender and shot blocker.
If he played Noah's minutes, he'd lead the team in this category. Omer averages two blocks per 36 minutes played; Noah averages 1.6.
He has zero offensive moves, but when he gets it, he's going strong.
Potential Impact: +15
He is another reason the Bulls should dominate the boards in this series.
Likely Effect: +15
Miami Heat: Udonis Haslem
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This guy is part of the Miami Heat heart and soul. He is tough as nails, but right now those nails are pretty rusty.
He has missed nearly all of the regular season, and it's tough to be thrown into an intense series like this without a rhythm.
Luckily for him and Miami, he is a hustle player whose defensive presence and rebounding dictate his level of effectiveness.
Potential Impact: +15
Still, it is not likely he’ll have the wind to keep up with the young and hungry Bulls front court. He also received a DNP-Coaches Decision in Game 5 vs. Boston.
Likely Impact: 0
Chicago Bulls: CJ Watson
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CJ has been playing timidly and with a lack of assertiveness. The Bulls offense is stagnant and lacks direction when Rose sits.
The Bulls would love for Watson to come in and attack from the moment he hits the floor.
Potential Impact: +20
I doubt he will change it up for this series. I have been disappointed in his performance this year, sans the Nuggets game that Derrick Rose missed with a crook in his neck.
Likely Impact: -5
Miami Heat: Mike Miller
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A favorite of many current and past teammates, Miller really hasn’t had nearly the impact Miami had hoped for all season.
This trend has continued in the post season as he is averaging less than a point per game. Miller’s best quality is his shooting ability. This has not been evident.
Miller is a smart team defender, though his one-on-one defensive skills are lacking.
The Heat have shorten their rotation even more in the post season.
Miller has been a casualty of this adjustment, but I’m not sure they can afford to do that against a team as deep as Chicago.
Potential Impact: +10
Don’t expect a breakout performance from Miller in this series.
Likely Impact: -10
Chicago Bulls: Joakim Noah
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"The Igniter" could be extra large versus the Heat. He has always gotten up to play against LeBron and other marquee players not named Dwight Howard.
The Bulls need Noah to dominate the offensive glass, getting second shots for himself and his teammates. Noah's defense will also take center stage as he is the best fit to guard Bosh.
He can match his foot speed an if the Heat run pick and roll with Bosh, Noah defends it as well as any big man in the NBA.
Potential Impact: +45
Noah will thrive on the big stage
Likely Impact: +40
Miami Heat: James Jones
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The Heat’s best bench player has shown the ability to knock down big shots. He plays tough defense and uses his length well.
If he is making his shots, it will make double teams from the Bulls perimeter defenders difficult.
Jones will be a big key in this series. If he doesn’t produce, The Big Three will have to be enormous every game of the series.
Potential Impact: +30
The Bulls defense will limit Jones open looks
Likely Impact: +10
Chicago Bulls: Taj Gibson
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Taj had a great fourth quarter that had plenty of ridiculous Bulls fans screaming for Boozer's benching. Taj is a great bench player, on this team that is all he should be.
If the Bulls had a back to the basket center, that would be a different story, but they don't.
Gibson's athleticism and shot blocking will be a big boost for Chicago. if he can continue his offensive production, he could become the Bulls MVS, the Most Valuable Sub.
Potential Impact: +20
Taj comes down to earth a bit, but he will still be a valuable sub.
Likely Impact: +15
Miami Heat: Mario Chalmers
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Chalmers has plenty of heart. He is an intense competitor, good defender and has always shown the ability to make clutch shots.
He is very familiar with Rose and this goes back to their collegiate days. He plays him better than most if you gauge the fact that he isn’t asked to do nearly as much as Rose.
I think Chalmers is another big key for Miami. I expect Rose to come out with a vengeance against Chalmers.
He doesn’t want to drop another post season matchup to him.
Potential Impact: +25
Chalmers will be frustrated by a lack of opportunities
Likely Impact: +5
Chicago Bulls: Luol Deng
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The Bulls most underrated player, but that is the best thing for his personality. Deng is an under the radar type of guy.
His defensive performance on LeBron is not as important as his offensive performance in this series.
He must play James tough on defense, this is true, but he must make LeBron respect his offense. The King has become one of the game's most dangerous weak side and help defenders.
He is able to roam like when he doesn't have to lock down on his man.
Deng must make himself a threat in this series outside of the first quarter.
Potential Impact: +55
Deng's effort will definitely be there, but his defensive workload will be too much to get enough scoring to make LeBron work as much as needed.
Likely Impact: +20
Miami Heat: Chris Bosh
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The smallest of The Big Three is Snoop Dogg’s little cousin Chris Bosh. When Bosh is active an doesn’t settle for the jump-shot he is very effective.
The pump fake and drive to the basket down the stretch against the Celtics in Game 5 will be his most valuable offensive move.
Bosh doesn’t bring a ton defensively, though he has been shamed into a better effort with this defensive minded group. Boozer loves this match up as it seems he takes it personally.
I believe Miami was his first choice and every team seemed to have Bosh rated higher on their list of Power Forwards this summer. He will win this crucial match up of fours in this series.
Potential Impact: +45
The physical nature of this series will be too much for Bosh to produce consistently throughout the series.
Likely Impact: +20
Chicago Bulls: Kyle Korver
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Ashton Kutcher was in purgatory throughout most of the Atlanta series. He was not shooting it well, but what was even worse was that his poor defense was being exposed more than usual.
The Hawks presented no favorable match-ups for Korver. There was no where to hide him on defense. Believe it or not, Korver matches up much better with Miami.
Sure, he cannot ever be caught on tape attempting to check Wade or LeBron, but Mike Miller yes. Mario Chalmers, yes. Eddie House, yes, even Mike Bibby is an assignment he can handle.
If Korver can make the Heat pay from the outside, it could be one of the biggest factors in overcoming the Heat.
Potential Impact: +40
Korver's shooting will impact the wins the Bulls get in this series
Likely Impact: +20
Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade
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Flash is one of the five best players on the planet. He is the best defensive two guard in the league and a explosive scorer.
The Bulls like most teams don’t have an answer for him. Expect Bogans and Brewer to stay in foul trouble.
The one possibility for the Bulls lies in the fact that Wade hits the deck even more than Rose. He hasn’t been nearly as durable though.
If he is hobbled all the weight of carrying this squad could shift to The King.
Potential Impact: +190
Wade is still his team's best late game option, he is an absolute animal in the fourth quarter.
Likely Impact: +190
Chicago Bulls: Carlos Boozer
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"The Big Outburst" had a great Game 6 in Atlanta. He actually matches up better with Miami as well.
I know he wants this series bad, but he must be on the floor. He cannot let mental lapses on defense or silly fouls limit his minutes.
It is time for Boozer to earn his keep. 20 points and 10 rebounds per game from Carlos will make the Bulls awful tough for the Heat or anyone else to beat.
Potential Impact: +65
Though he will outplay Bosh, the Bulls need even more from Boozer.
Likely Impact: +40
Miami Heat: LeBron James
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King James is the best player in the world. I know Derrick Rose won the MVP, but there is a difference between MVP and best player.
If it were the same, Michael Jordan would have won 10 MVP awards, at least.
Obviously, the Bulls don’t have an answer for James. Deng will give his best effort, but if LeBron is on, its even more of a lost cause than when Rose is making his jump shot.
He will be asked to do more than score, which is nothing out of the ordinary for him. One big difference is that his defensive assignment will include guarding Derrick Rose.
The more they put him on Rose, the more energy he’ll have to expend.
Potential Impact: +200
James is hungry and he believes in Wade, he knows its not all on his shoulders and that is the way he likes it.
Likely Impact: +200
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
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Great players are great in the biggest moments of the careers. This is the first huge stage Rose will have ever played on. The last two post season's are nothing compared to the intensity and pressure of this series.
If the Heat depend on their point guards to check Rose, he will average 32 points and 12 assists in this series, on over 50 percent shooting.
The King and Wade will have to take the assignment at some point after he starts to torch the firm of Chalmers, Bibby and House.
When and if this happens is when his teammates must step up, Rose will be Rose, I'm confident of that.
Potential Impact: +200
Rose is no flash in the pan, he will arguably be the best player in the NBA for the next five to seven years and he will bring it all series.
Likely Impact: +200
Prediction: The Winners Are.....
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Though I would love to be wrong and I can think of scenarios where the deeper Bulls could win this series.
What I've learned in over 30 years of watching and loving this sport tells me two all-time greats in their prime will be too much for the young inexperienced Bulls to overcome.
Derrick Rose's star will shine as bright, if not brighter than anyone in the series, but the alliance in South Beach will have officially changed the way NBA champions are constructed until someone breaks the spell.
Through tears, I concede and predict the Heat will win in six or seven and go on to win the NBA Finals.
