UFC 131: Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin, Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown

It's been a tough week for the UFC. First, the main event for UFC 130, Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard III, was scrapped when both fighters sustained injuries.

This left fight fans groaning as Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs Matt "The Hammer" Hamill was promoted to the main event.

Then yesterday it was revealed that Brock Lesnar will be unable to headline UFC 131 because he has been stricken with diverticulitis.

Luckily for MMA fans, UFC 131's main event has not been completely ruined. some would even say that it's better.

Top contender Shane Carwin has stepped in to fight Junior Dos Santos for the No. 1 contender spot in the heavyweight division.

Let's take a look at how these two stack up.

Experience

It's scary how similar these two guys' experience levels are.

Both of them have 13 fights. Both have only one loss. They both lost by submission. They have each fought three top level opponents.

Both guys are used to being in their with high level opponents and they are used to being in the UFC's spotlight, Junior especially because of TUF 13.

Based on that, I don't think experience will play a huge role in this fight.

However, if I had to tilt it in someone's favor, I would go with Carwin because he has fought for the belt before.

Edge: Shane Carwin

Cardio

Anyone who watched the Lesnar vs Carwin fight knows that Junior will enjoy a cardio advantage. In that fight, Carwin tried too hard to finish Lesnar in the first round and totally gassed himself out.

When he came out for the second round he was noticeably exhausted and Lesnar was able to take advantage, winning the fight with an arm triangle choke.

Junior's cardio isn't off the charts, but he showed in his fight with Roy Nelson that he can go three rounds and still have some gas left in the tank.

He consistently pressed the action against Nelson, threw big bombs for all three rounds and also endured some grueling clinch work.

Edge: Junior Dos Santos

Striking Power

Shane Carwin has insane power in his hands. There is a reason that his first 12 professional fights didn't make it out of the first round. Any punch from this guy is dangerous.

He put Gabe Gonzaga on dream street with a short right hand that looked practically harmless. His knockout of Frank Mir was one of the most vicious in UFC history.

Mir was left a helpless pile on the canvas. It's also noteworthy that Carwin has the biggest hands in the UFC.

Junior Dos Santos punching power is no joke either. He has finished four fights in the UFC by way of knock out and forced Mirko Cro Cop to submit by breaking his orbital bone with a punch.

The only man to survive Junior's onslaught was Roy Nelson, but Dos Santos still won the fight handily.

There's no doubt that both these guys have one punch knockout power, but Carwin can end the fight with punches that seem harmless. That's something we haven't seen Junior do.

Edge: Shane Carwin

Striking Technique

Junior Dos Santos has the best boxing in the heavyweight division. Period. Joe Rogan often refers to Junior as a "specialist." He has close to perfect punching technique.

He mixes his punches up well and is particularly well known for his uppercut. Dos Santos has been criticized before for not incorporating more kicks into his stand up game, but his hands are so good that he hasn't needed to.

Carwin is a good boxer, but he is not on Junior's level. Shane mostly gets by on his punching power. His movement isn't great, he just kind of plods forward.

Overall, I would say Junior has more precise striking, moves better and mixes things up more.

Edge: Junior Dos Santos

Chin

This one is a tough call.

Both guys are lethal strikers and tend to end fights quickly, so they tend to not get hit much.

However, Carwin has been tagged once. It was in his fight with Gabe Gonzaga. A shot from Gabe visibly rocked Carwin and had Gabe tried to finish standing instead of dragging it to the ground, he might have been able to finish the fight.

Carwin recovered well, but if Gonzaga put him in trouble Junior is definitely capable of doing so.

Junior's chin has never been sternly tested, but he did eat a few stiff shots from Roy Nelson and didn't seem at all phased.

Edge: Junior Dos Santos

Grappling

The picture here says a lot. Getting Brock Lesnar on his back is no easy task and Carwin did it and managed to keep him there for most of a round. Shane is a very accomplished wrestler.

In 1999 he was NCAA Division II Heavyweight Champion. When you combine his credentials with his daunting size, you get a wrestling force that is extremely difficult to contend with.

So far the only man to put Carwin on his back has been Lesnar, but only after Carwin was completely gassed.

Junior's grappling isn't something we see much of. He mostly uses his grappling abilities in reverse to keep the fight standing.

He showed good takedown defense in his fight with Roy Nelson. He also showed good scrambling ability in his fight with Gabe Gonzaga. However, Junior has never faced a wrestler or Carwin's caliber.

Edge: Shane Carwin

Submissions

This one is kind of a no-brainer.

We saw in his fight with Lesnar that Carwin's Brazilian jiu-jitsu isn't exactly top notch. He was subbed by Brock Lesnar, who is relatively new to the world of BJJ.

Shane does have a few submission wins to his name, but they're over low level competition. He only has his purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

We haven't seen much, if any, of Junior's jiu-jitsu in the UFC. He does have a submission victory, but he got it for breaking Mirko Cro Cop's orbital bone with a punch.

That being said, Dos Santos does have his brown belt in BJJ and he trains at Black House. Black House is known for fighters with excellent jiu jitsu such as both Nogueira brothers, Anderson Silva and Jose Aldo.

Given his higher level belt and the caliber of training partners he has to work with, Junior should have a clear advantage in the submission game.

Edge: Junior Dos Santos

Winner?

Shane Carwin is a game opponent, but I see Dos Santos taking this fight.

Junior is much quicker than Carwin and has much better hands. Dos Santos will have to be wary of Carwin's power and keep his distance, but I think he will be able to do so.

Given how rocked Carwin was by a punch from Gonzaga, I think Dos Santos will have no trouble putting him in trouble.

Shane also has enough power in his hands to end this fight, but given how much better Junior's hands are, I think he'll put Carwin away before Carwin lands a big shot on him.

Winner: Junior Dos Santos by first-round TKO