UFC 131 Fight Card: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown of Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin
It's a bout that we all wanted to see happen for a long time, ever since Shane Carwin earned his crack at Brock Lesnar with his UFC 111 win over Frank Mir, to be exact.
But it's a bout that we all thought would stay a fantasy and never truly surface as a legitimate fight, especially when Lesnar came off of a hard-fought split decision win in a bout with diverticulitis to survive a fatal and unquestionable 8-10 first round and submit Shane Carwin with a second-round "Death-Clutch" Arm Triangle choke at UFC 116.
Unfortunately for fans of the former WWE Champion, 2002 WWE King of The Ring, and former UFC Heavyweight Champion, MMA Junkie reports that diverticulitis has engaged in a rematch with the Minnesotan, and thus Lesnar will not be able to face fellow TUF 13 coach Junior "Cigano" Dos Santos at UFC 131.
Stepping in for Lesnar is one of the only two men that fans legitimately believe can and definitely could knock Dos Santos out, and with UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez sidelined until the still-TBA UFC card slated to take place in Houston, that man is none other than Shane Carwin, who will be revamping his game plan to prepare for Dos Santos in lieu of a young and hungry Jon Olav Einemo.
It's the bout we were close to never actually seeing, and since we now know that it will indeed happen, it's about time for Yours Truly to run it down from top-to-bottom: this is the head-to-toe breakdown of Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin!
Strength
1 of 11Overall, when we talk about stuff like this, we're talking about the man who might be able to push his opponent around and wear him out against the cage.
This one is a little bit tricky, because Dos Santos was able to push Roy Nelson around despite Dos Santos' size and frame, while Carwin muscled around guys left and right before gassing out against Brock Lesnar.
It's hard to say whether it will be Dos Santos that will use his strength to muscle around Carwin or the other way around, but if Carwin has been keeping his muscular frame in the same healthy shape that he kept it before the injury that kept him out of UFC 125, he could be able to pin Dos Santos against the cage in a few precarious positions.
Advantage: Carwin (unless Dos Santos can prove different)
Technical Striking
2 of 11Carwin has that one-punch power in his fists that I once described as a "Shotgun-right," and that right has dropped everyone not named Brock Lesnar, hence the current reputation of "The Beast".
However, when we break down striking, we have to look at the technical aspect as well as the power aspect, and truth be told, the KO Power is a tough one to break down, but more on that later.
From the technical aspect (the perspective that deems one as advantageous over his foe due to his ability to be accurate when landing his hard shots rather than swinging to force a KO punch) there should be little question as to how Dos Santos tops Carwin here.
Dos Santos, like Carwin, can land one big punch that knocks his foes out, but when he goes for the KO, he wants to get the full shot in, and throwing punches that land in order to set up his kill-shot is the very thing that he does better than Carwin.
Expect Dos Santos to demonstrate how accurate he can be throwing fists when he faces the one man who even I will admit has the unsurprisingly best legitimate chance to beat him by way of knockout.
Advantage: Dos Santos
Power Strikes
3 of 11It is tough to fully capture the image of what a punch from Shane Carwin feels like, so I'll state the only real definite about Carwin right here and now:
Carwin's punches hurt like hell.
Enough said?
I think so, but put it up against Dos Santos' striking.
Dos Santos might be better technically striking, but when it comes to power, does Cigano pack the deadlier chain of explosives in his fists?
When he has someone hurt with a skillfully telegraphed shot, Cigano is untouchable, but when it comes to throwing the heavier shots (the ones that may not always land, but that do cause bottling harm when they connect with one's anatomical shell) there should be little argument to the truth,.
In this case, the truth is that Carwin's strikes may carry a little bit more force than those of Dos Santos.
Advantage: Carwin
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Submissions
4 of 11It's hardly fair to say that Carwin has the edge over Dos Santos simply because he won by way of an actual submission hold in four of his fights or simply because of his purple belt under Nate Marquardt, who is one of today's toughest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu aces.
Besides, if you know your BJJ ranks, a brown belt is a bit higher rank than a purple belt, although a purple belt is a jump and a half up from a white belt.
Dos Santos may have won only one fight by way of an actual submission hold (specifically a guillotine choke, whereas the other submissions were a submission win by exhaustion and the win over Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 103), but that and the brown belt hardly serve as solid arguments towards the myth of Dos Santos having a ground game.
As masterful as the Greg Jackson student is, one must never doubt the ground prowess of someone that rolls around with guys like the Pitbull brothers, Bibiano Fernandes, Marlon Sandro, and above all others from Team Black House, the arguable best BJJ practitioner in MMA post-Gracie-Era, Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira.
As some will tell you, though, the brown belt of Dos Santos may be closer to a black belt, but when it comes to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a man's skill isn't necessarily measured by the color of his belt or the camp he rolls with.
Then again, one could argue the same for Carwin, as it may not mean much that Dos Santos trains with the Nogueiras when you're as jacked as Carwin.
To put this slide in simple English: Chalk this one up to bias.
Advantage: Open (although Dos Santos might have a slight edge)
KO Power
5 of 11To me, this is the real wild-card in the entire fight.
When I first weighed in on the fight, I didn't anticipate them using much of their submission games, but back then it was a given that the two would eventually trade shots.
The same holds true now, but considering that both guys have gotten actual submission holds on their foes before, that aspect could kick in during this bout.
As for the KO Power, that is a bit tough to call, because Carwin may have the heavier hands compared to Dos Santos, as I'm sure some do believe, but does that matter at all when Dos Santos' last fight was this past August at UFC 117, while Carwin's last bout was last July against Lesnar?
You tell me, and I'll explain the hint at possible cage rust for Carwin later.
Advantage: Open
Takedowns
6 of 11
For the first time ever in a fight, Dos Santos got a takedown on Roy Nelson and showed that he wasn't kidding when he said he'd been working on his wrestling.
It's tough to not respect a dude like that, but look at Carwin's record as far as Wrestling.
He's a two-time runner-up for the NCAA Division II National Wrestling Heavyweight Tournament, the NCAA Division II Wrestling Heavyweight Champion in 1999, a Western State College Mountaineer Sports Hall of Famer as of 2004, a Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference Hall of Famer as of last year, and an NCAA Division II Wrestling Hall of Famer as of this past March.
Just a fun fact, he got inducted a week and two days before fellow Jackson Camp teammate Jon Jones dethroned Mauricio "Shogun" Rua en route to becoming UFC Light Heavyweight Champion.
That, plus his takedowns are very earth-shaking when he gets them in.
That's something Junior Cigano should think about come UFC 131.
Advantage: Carwin
Takedown Defense
7 of 11
Part of why we haven't seen JDS on the ground is because he's been facing a sort-of who's who of strikers and a BJJ ace in Fabricio Werdum.
If you look at Stefan Struve, Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel, and the mixed threat of Muay Thai and BJJ that Gabriel Gonzaga was supposed to bring, what you have are the guys who were solid on the feet, but when you mention the two PRIDE legends, you're mentioning two guys who had no takedown ability.
Big Country was equally a big test for Dos Santos, and while he wound up being JDS's toughest fight so far, but not even he could get or keep Dos Santos down.
Granted, Dos Santos wasn't facing a strong wrestler when he fought Nelson.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if Carwin is the man to test out Dos Santos' ability to scrap from his back.
Advantage: Split (give credit to Carwin since he IS a Wrestler)
Cardio
8 of 11Every time I do these, there's always the one slide that I absolutely HAVE to say without hesitation "this one is a no-brainer."
Well, this is that slide.
Carwin went into the fight with Lesnar with a supposedly large gas tank, as many thought he would be conditioned enough to get past round two if the fight left round one, but he wound up exposing his own lack of a large gas tank when he showed no defense to Lesnar's second-round takedown or his arm triangle.
This is a problem unless he proves that pushing the action will not be an issue if the fight goes past the first five minutes against Dos Santos.
Granted, you can count myself as one of the many who thought the fight would end in that first round and had to re-watch the fight to see why it didn't end in round one, but even I will admit that Carwin needs to prove himself in this aspect here.
Dos Santos has gone past the first round only twice, but his spirit was not broken by the fact of him having to go into round three with his opponents, as he was able to do enough to secure the win both times (fun fact: the UFC 117 with over Big Country was the first time Junior had gone to the judges).
The fact is, Dos Santos has proven that he can go three rounds without much problem.
Carwin may have to prove it come June 11.
Advantage: Dos Santos
Heart and Soul (aka the "How Bad Do You F**king Want It" Factor)
9 of 11
Carwin's heart is not the same as his cardio...he does hang in there when he gets hurt like Gonzaga did at UFC 96.
Hey, we can't say Nelson or Yvel or Struve never hit Dos Santos, either...Cigano has taken tough shots in his career as well.
This question may come up during the fight, although it won't be until after one of them gets hit and we have to think about whether either man will prove to have a glass jaw or not.
In any event, the man across the cage with likely serve as the toughest career challenge on both ends, as both men will prove difficult to finish.
The only question left is "Who will be that man?"
Advantage: Split
Footwork
10 of 11I'm not putting Creativity as a point here because I doubt Dos Santos will actually think about being the first Heavyweight to pull off a Showtime Kick or try to be the first fighter to finish with it.
I just thought it would be cool for y'all to see him do it.
It would be cool if he did pull it off though...just saying.
Anyway, this here is just me rambling on about the movement of each fighter, will they be able to throw their opponent off guard with their movement, and so on and so forth.
Carwin has never struck me as being an unorthodox Heavyweight; he seems kind of like the ideal image of what you'd expect a Heavyweight fighter to look like, and he moves around as such.
Dos Santos is the same, but when you couple in a certain someone and the company he has been giving Team Black House, one can't help but think a quicker and more athletic version of Dos Santos will come out to play against Carwin.
Truthfully, that will not surprise me...although him training with the Roufusport boys probably will.
Advantage: Dos Santos
Team Cigano or Team Beast: Whose Fight Is This to Win?
11 of 11For those who think otherwise, let me first clarify that I am not saying Shane Carwin cannot win at UFC 131.
I've said time and time again that any fight in which one has to walk from a backstage area to a cage or a ring just to beat up someone that wants to beat them up is not an easy fight.
Carwin can beat Junior Dos Santos in the areas that I have Dos Santos winning, just as Dos Santos can win in the areas where I feel Carwin is superior, but I also cannot lie and claim that this fight will be the cakewalk that most people thought Carwin's fight with Jon Olav Einemo would have been.
I refuse to believe that Carwin will have an easy fight on his hands when he faces Dos Santos, and I equally refuse to believe that Dos Santos will breeze through Carwin, because the truth is that neither man qualifies as an "easy fight" given their strengths.
What I will easily believe is that regardless of who prevails at UFC 131, Cain Velasquez will be in for the fight of his life on the night he steps foot once again inside the Octagon.
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