NBA Playoffs 2011: 10 Burning Questions Facing the Chicago Bulls in East Finals
The Chicago Bulls are in the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat. The question is, can they win a seven game series against them? The answer is yes, if they can answer these next 10 questions affirmatively.
First though, a little discussion on the two teams. The two teams are the best two teams in the Simple Rating System (SRS); a system used by basketball-reference.com that combines margin of victory and strength of schedule.
In efficiency differential, including both the regular season and the postseason, the Bulls are first and the Heat are second. If you look at just the playoffs, the Bulls are first and the Heat are fourth.
In terms of record, the Bulls are the top seed in the East and the Heat are the second seed. Regardless of how you look at it, this is truly a matchup of the "Beasts of the East." People should show caution before denying the credibility or credentials of either team.
1: Can They Win the Rebounding Battle?
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The Miami Heat don't have a lot of holes or weaknesses, but they do have problems with rebounding. By that I don't mean they are a bad rebounding team, but that they struggle when they are out-rebounded. In fact, when their opponent grabs more boards than they do, the Heat are 17-18. If you include the postseason on that stat, they are 18-20 when out-rebounded.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are the best rebounding team in the NBA. They've had more rebounds than their opponent in all but one game in the playoffs. In the regular season, they won the battle of the boards 65 times in 82 tries. That includes their three wins over the Heat.
If they can continue to dominate the boards the way they have all season, then the Bulls will have a significantly greater chance of beating Miami. Per 36 minutes, the Heat's best rebounder is Zydrunas Ilgauskas who has 9.0 rebounds.
By comparison, the Bulls have five players who are better than that—Kurt Thomas (9.2), Taj Gibson (9.5), Carlos Boozer (10.8), Omer Asik (11.1) and Joakim Noah (11.4). The Bulls rebounding is not only better, it's deeper and it's both offensive and defensive rebounding.
If the Bulls can increase their second chance opportunities while minimizing the Heat's then they have a great chance to win. It's been a big part of their formula for success all season, and it's likely to continue in this series.
2: Can the Bulls Keep LeBron James and Dwyane Wade Under 50?
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No one is going to stop the Heat superstars. The question is whether you can merely slow them down. When teams have held them to under 50 combined points, the Heat are 26-13—good, but not "unbeatable." When they've scored 50 or more, they are 23-6—much closer to "unbeatable."
In all, the pair average about 54 points when the Heat win and just under 50 when the Heat lose.
The Bulls are equipped to do that as some of their best defenders are at the two and three. In the regular season matchups though, James has fared much better than Wade. James has averaged 27.5 points on 56 percent shooting, while Wade had 29 points, but on 47 percent shooting.
In the two games where they both played, the Bulls held the duo to under 50—once when they combined for only 46 in Miami. In the game where they both played in Chicago, they combined for 63 points.
There is going to be a tremendous burden on Luol Deng to slow down LeBron. He hasn't done a great job of it at anytime in the past, and he'll need to have the defensive series of his life for the Bulls to win this series. On the plus side, Tom Thibodeau is the man who delivered the scouting reports that helped Paul Pierce, an inferior defender, to contain LeBron in past series.
It's possible that for this reason the Bulls will be featuring Ronnie Brewer a little more in this series than in the previous two. Thibodeau has been more than willing to change things up from series to series. Now, of course Brewer isn't going to even remotely keep up with Wade from a scoring perspective however, when he's guarded by Brewer, Wade has only made 39 percent of his shots this season.
3: Can Keith Bogans Hit His Threes?
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When Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer combine for just two three-pointers made, then the Bulls are 46-4 on the season, including both regular and postseason games. There's a reason beyond coincidence for that.
The Bulls defense is their secret to success. When their defensive shooting guards are shooting, they don't have to go to Kyle Korver, a vastly inferior defender, to hit the threes and stretch the court. When they are getting them, it forces defenders to open up the lane and that allows for Rose to penetrate.
Ronnie Brewer is no Ray Allen (although he does look like him from the scalp up), but he doesn't need to be. If he can just knock down two threes a game, the Bulls will be in a great position to win the series.
4: Can Boozer Continue to Play Like a Number Two?
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Carlos Boozer is the highest paid Chicago Bull and he was paid to be the man in the post when the Bulls got where they are now. When he's playing confident, hitting the mid-range jumper, getting to the rim, and playing aggressively, the Bulls are a much better team.
It would be great if the Bulls could get a 20-point, 10-rebound night from him every night, but they don't need that much. If he can just give them 18 points and nine rebounds a night, then the Bulls can have a great chance at beating the Heat as they are 18-4 when he goes for 18 and nine.
Boozer's been showing recent signs of coming out of his prolonged slump as he has averaged 17.3 points and 9.3 boards over the last three games.
He has traditionally outplayed Chris Bosh, getting 18.4 points and 11.1 rebounds to Chris Bosh's 17.1 and 18.5. This season he's won two of the three head-to-head matchups against Bosh.
5: Can Joakim Noah Contain Chris Bosh?
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One of the biggest difference-makers in the series will be who wins the battle between Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer.
However, I believe that this series Bosh will be guarded by Joakim Noah as Noah has tended to guard the longer, more nimble power forwards. Noah will present a much tougher challenge to Bosh as he's only shot 29 percent this season with Noah on the court.
Boozer has actually played better when he's being guarded by Bosh, than when he's guarded by other Heat players, averaging 15.4 points and nine boards per 36 minutes with Bosh on the floor. His shooting percentage is 49 percent when Bosh is on the court, and 33 percent when he's on the bench.
Additionally, there's what Noah will get over Joel Anthony, offensively speaking. In their previous games, Noah wasn't all the way back yet. He's been playing much stronger as of late. The main Heat player who was pitted against Noah in the regular season games, Eric Dampier, spent almost 18 minutes on the court in one game, but only had one rebound, no points and three fouls.
Furthermore, Anthony doesn't have the length to bother Boozer the way some centers would, so the same kind of switch up isn't going to help the Heat. The Bulls have an advantage here in that they can have Noah concentrate on stopping Bosh, but the Heat don't have a "Boozer stopper" in their arsenal.
If the Bulls can win the battle in the paint, they will have a huge advantage in the series. They outscored the Heat in the paint 116-to-100 in the season series.
6: Can the Bulls Defense Keep the Heat from Getting Hot
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When the Heat make at least 47.7 percent of their shots, they are 42-4. They are 14-22 when they shoot below that. In contrast, the Bulls have best field goal percentage against in the NBA as their opponents make a mere 43.0 percent of their shots.
If you take the difference, then that's 45.35. In games where the Bulls have given up a field goal percentage of 45.4 percent or lower, they have gone 48-6. This is not as difficult as it sounds. First, in the games they played, the Heat have a field goal percentage of 44.2 percent.
Second, the plays the Heat like to run, the Bulls defend exceptionally well. The Heat run the isolation play 13 percent of the time. The Bulls only give up a 34.8 percent FG percentage in isolation.
The Heat go to the jump shot 22 percent of the time. The Bulls give up a FG percentage of just 37 percent against the jump shot.
The Heat like to stick with the ball handler on the pick and roll 15 percent of the time. The Bulls give up just a 38.5 percent shooting percentage in those situations.
That's half the Heat's plays where the Bulls give up less than a 40 percent field goal percentage. Why is that?
The way the Bulls play defense is to lock up the paint and force outside shots. The Bulls like to force teams to shoot from the mid-range area, and then challenge their shots. The Heat have shot seven percent lower from that area against the Bulls.
The key will be preventing LeBron James and Dwyane Wade from penetrating at will. They are two of the three best in the business at getting to the rim from the perimeter (the other player is also playing in this game, albeit as a member of the Bulls.)
7: Can the Bulls Keep Their Turnovers to a Minimum?
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Here is where the Heat have their biggest opportunity. The Bulls can be careless with the ball. If you are careless with the ball against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, they will make you pay. They are the best transition team in the NBA, scoring 1.20 points per play in transition.
Now, the Bulls are a reasonably good transition defense team, but the best way to not give up points in transition is to not turn the ball over. Of course not all fastbreak points come off of turnovers, but they can keep the fastbreak under control by not turning it over.
In two of the three games, the Bulls did fairly well keeping the fastbreak under control, giving up only eight transition points in the first game and 11 in the third. However, in the second game, the Heat ran up a huge 34 points off of the fastbreak. You may recall that was the game where the Heat ran up a big lead, mostly off of their transition offense.
For the Bulls to have any chance at all, they're going to need to be exceptional in this area. They have been during the postseason so far. The most they've surrendered in the postseason is 16 points, and that was only twice and an average of just 10.6 in the postseason. They will need to maintain that kind of transition defense to beat the Heat.
8: Can the Bulls Bench Exploit the Heat Bench?
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The Bulls bench could be a huge difference-maker in this series as they have been all season long. In games in which they've won the efficiency recap battle, the Bulls are 55-11. When they've lost it they are only 12-12.
On the other side, Miami do have a little more success when their bench wins the battle, but the Heat are far less likely to do it. While the Bulls bench is 66-24 with two ties the Heat bench is 37-52-3.
Furthermore, the Bulls bench wasn't really complete when the Bulls were without Boozer and/or Noah. Since the return of Noah, the bench has been complete in the sense that Kurt Thomas hasn't been starting. Since Noah's return, the bench has won the battle 30 of 37 times. The Bulls have only lost three of the games where their bench contributed more than their opponents.
One huge component of that bench, both literally and figuratively, in the series will be Omer Asik. When he's been on the court, the Heat offense has been utterly stifled, only scoring 78.72 points per 100 possessions. They have shot just 37.7 percent from the field. The Heat as a team is minus 13.
The numbers with Brewer on the floor are almost identical, probably because many of Asik's and Brewer's minutes tend to overlap. I get that there's been some lineup changes to the Heat, and their productive lineups in the postseason have changed a bit, but the defense that Asik and Brewer put down is still the main components of the best defensive unit in the NBA.
The Bulls starters will struggle to keep up with the Heat's big three. The difference will need to be made up by the Bench Mob.
9: Can Tom Thibodeau Outcoach Erik Spoelstra?
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Tom Thibodeau has designed the defense that stopped LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in the playoffs before. Of course, he hasn't stopped them both at the same before. Then again, he's never had the chance.
As of right now, the coach of the year has the chance to prove it with a coaching masterpiece. Contrary to what you may have heard, the Bulls do have the personnel to beat the Heat. If Thibodeau can out maneuver Erik Spoelstra, the Bulls have a great chance to do just that.
There have been a number of things that suggest that Thibodeau is the better "chess master" in the coaching battles. The Bulls have the best fourth quarter margin in the NBA. In rematches, where they'd lost the previous game, the Bulls have lost only four times this season.
At this point in the playoffs, generally teams have the talent. It comes down to who makes the right adjustments. Tom Thibodeau has been the master of this through the season and, while Erik Spoelstra has done a very good job in a very difficult situation, he's no Tom Thibodeau.
10: Can Derrick Rose Dominate Without Being Frenetic?
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Frenetic means to be wild and energetic in an out of control way. The Bulls need Rose to be dynamic, energetic and aggressive, but they don't need him to be frenetic.
Derrick Rose is going to have to have the series of his life without forcing anything. Sometimes people forget that he's only 22 years old. Sometimes he tries to do too much, and that could be the downfall of the Bulls. If he stays within himself, and lets the game come to him, the Bulls are almost invincible, or should I say, invince-a-Bull?
To a large degree, people focus on his shot attempts. That's really not important as he tends to go with what the other teams have given him. Sometimes people focus too much on his field goal percentage. Again, not so important. If he's getting to the line a lot, the field goal percentage can be deceiving as the shots that he'd normally be getting in the paint he's getting at the stripe instead.
There are two things that are crucial to Rose playing under control—scoring efficiency (points per field goal attempt) and turnovers. When Rose averages 1.25 points per field goal attempt and turns the ball over three times or less, then the Bulls win, and win a lot, going 29-2 in those situations.
His field goal attempts range from 10 to 28 in those situations. His field goal percentage ranges from .313 to .800. His assists range from 4-17. He's scored as little as 18 points and as many as 44. All of that varies a lot, but when he's efficient and takes care of the ball (i.e. doesn't waste possessions) the Bulls win.
If he's not frenetic, playing out of control, but remains energetic and in control, the Bulls will win this series—not could win, mind you, but will win. In the playoffs, he's had five such games and the Bulls have won all five. Against the Heat he had one game that met the criteria, so he can do it against the Heat.
For Rose to do this will take some growth mentally on his part, but he's been growing into the team leader role all season, and it's just one more step to take. If he takes it, the Bulls will be the next NBA champions. If he doesn't, there's a good chance that they will be watching the Heat in the finals.
