2011 NHL Playoff Predictions: Round 2

Well, Round 1 of the NHL playoffs took us through the Easter season to the eve of the royal wedding.

I didn't do as good as in previous years, but 5-3 isn't bad. How was I to know that Nashville would finally win a playoff round and that Vancouver would finally defeat the Blackhawks, though only by the skin of their teeth? I also just barely lost the Buffalo-Philadelphia series.

Where I really looked bad was predicting the Anaheim Ducks would win the Stanley Cup. The Ducks are definitely on the way up but Ray Emery was no J.S. Giguere or Jonas Hiller.

I'll do what I usually do and list players whose career took a downward turn during the first round, then talk about the immediate future of the losing teams, and finally check the crystal ball for the next round.

Players in Trouble

Marion Gaborik

Having spent most of his career in Minnesota where he had little chance to play in the postseason, this was Gaborik's chance to shine with a much better team. Instead, the Rangers got little production from him and an embarrassing goof led to a game-winning Washington goal.  Gaborik is not the stuff of leaders and that may lead to a much reduced paycheck once his current contract expires.

Scott Gomez and Brian Gianta

They started out on fire, but the longer the series with Boston went on, the less they contributed. They epitomize the problem with Montreal: declining veterans and few new stars on the rise.  Their careers are in the wind-down stage, instead of those who can lift a franchise to the Stanley Cup.

The Future of the Eliminated Teams

New York Rangers

For all the money the second most valuable NHL franchise has, the last two years have been very unsatisfying. In 2010, the Rangers lost a must game to Philadelphia and missed the playoffs on the last day. In 2011, they were overmatched against a Washington team that has playoff ghosts to exorcise. 

They are not getting much for the money they spend. Their stars don't play like stars. There are several hungry teams on the rise who failed to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. Their continued improvement combined with New York's inability to sign character free agents could mean that the Rangers might not make the playoffs next year.

Montreal Canadiens

They are in the same position as the Rangers. Except for P. K. Subban, the Canadiens have got little, rising young talent, particularly at forward. Put bluntly, they resemble the Don Cherry "lunch pail" teams of the 1970s which had good players, but few stars.

They got good, but not super goaltending from Carey Price. Price's performance will manage to divert criticism from him, but not from Canadiens management, who traded away Jaroslav Halak who gave the super goaltending which allowed them to pull two upsets in 2010. Like New York, because of talent shortage, there is a good chance they won't make the playoffs next year if the teams below them continue to improve.

Buffalo Sabres

This is a team on the rise, not because of their current roster, but because they have acquired an ambitious owner who vows to spend money to win the Stanley Cup. The Sabres improved as the season went on and then took a favored Flyers team to seven games despite injuries to key players. They have a great goaltender in Ryan Miller. Signing more expensive free agents and a good draft will take the team higher next year.

Pittsburgh Penguins

They made a gallant effort against a team with more talent and fell short. When a team loses its two best players, there is little that can be done unless they have an exceptional goaltender, and Marc-Andre Fleury is not that type of goaltender. Still, the team learned to play a gritty defensive game and that will help in the future. A good draft and the return of Crosby and Malkin will make this team a contender next year.

Phoenix Coyotes

They took a step backwards this year, being swept by Detroit after taking them to seven games in 2010.  The miserable off ice condition of this team is hampering its development.  The biggest improvement for the team will be when it finds a permanent owner in a permanent location.

Anaheim Ducks

They are a team on the rise. They are the toughest, hardest-hitting team in the NHL, but it wasn't enough to beat Nashville. They were badly hurt when Jonas Hiller got hurt and there were several times when star players made bonehead defensive plays. A good draft and the return of Hiller will take the rebuilding phase to a higher level and make them a contender next year.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings suffered too many injuries to star players to beat even a suspect team like San Jose.  This proves they need more depth and a good draft will be a step in the right direction. They should make the playoffs again next year, but will they improve enough to finally win a playoff round?

Chicago Blackhawks

They were forced to strip their team because of salary cap problems and the question remains if management kept or got rid of the right players. They still almost defeated Vancouver largely because they knew how to defeat them from the past, but in the end, the reduced talent did them in. 

Against another playoff team, they might not have looked so good as they did in the end. They still have a core that could take them to the Stanley Cup again, but they have to be astute at filling in the holes that have appeared thanks to downsizing.


Round 2 Predictions

Eastern Conference

Washington vs Tampa Bay

This is the toughest of all the matchups to call. Washington had to win a playoff round and they did, or it might have led to a team shake-up and possible coaching change. But they beat the mediocre New York Rangers. How good is this team? It's in the same position as Vancouver; it's proved it can beat a team that was only good enough to get to the playoffs, but how will it fare against the big boys? 

As for Tampa Bay, they have a lot of talent, especially when Steve Stamkos stops imitating Joe Thornton in the playoffs. Even better, is that Dwayne Roloson proved he could still win a playoff round.

There are too many questions to come up with a clear choice. If Washington is the team everyone supposed they were last year and everybody imagines they are this year, they'll move on in five or six games. But I think they are still suspect and Tampa will make the Eastern Final in six or seven games.

Philadelphia vs Boston

There are two ways of looking at this series. One is that Boston has so much better goaltending and is so worked up for revenge that they will move on to the next round and avenge the humiliation of last year. The other is that once a team gets another team's number, they know how to win and in fact it gets easier the next time unless there is a drastic change in personnel (see Chicago-Vancouver). 

I hold to the second theory. Boston didn't look good against a mediocre Montreal squad, didn't score a power play goal and gave up short handed goals. Some of their star players didn't look like stars. Boston had the better goaltender last year and it wasn't enough. Philadelphia plays a more energetic game and they have Chris Pronger back. It will be easier this time. Philadelphia in five or six games.

Western Conference

Vancouver vs Nashville

These were two "show me" teams in the first round whom I predicted would be defeated and they showed me and I had to eat humble pie. This is new territory for Nashville, but they are in over their heads this round like they usually are in the playoffs. They've got more character now that they have Mike Fisher, and goaltender Pekka Rinne is good enough to steal a series. 

Their best chance for victory is to prove that Vancouver goaltender Roberto Luongo is not only spooked against the Chicago Blackhawks, but is spooked no matter who he plays against in the second round. That won't happen and the Canucks will get to the Western Final in five or at most six games.

San Jose vs Detroit

Be still, Sharks' beating hearts. Joe Thornton actually scored a meaningful playoff goal after all these years. Does this mean that he finally means to play like the player his status designates and his loafer line mates will take heart and follow him? Will San Jose, with home ice advantage, beat Detroit like they did last year? 

But Detroit is better than last year and is well rested this time. Franzen and Zetterberg will be back. I don't think San Jose has a hex on Detroit and the Red Wings will hook up with the Canucks after six games.