NBA Playoffs 2011: Have Pacers Provided Blueprint for Beating Chicago?

The Chicago Bulls have won the first three games of their first round series, the longest winning streak of any top overall seed to ever finish the season. They've won 12 straight overall. They've won 22 of 24 and 31 of 35. Over the last half of the season they averaged a double digit margin of victory, the highest in the NBA. 

So you would think that being that hot people would be favoring their chances of moving on. Not so fast. In one of the strangest quirks of playoff spin ever witnessed, various commentators are assuring us that the Bulls are "ripe for the plucking."  

The Indiana Pacers they say, have given the blueprint for beating the Bulls. It's not so much that Indiana has played well as it is that they've played well at the way they've played. They've done a good job at playing tough and gritty. 

They haven't allowed Derrick Rose to get the rim.  They've been fouling him hard and forcing him to win games at the stripe. They say that there's no way that Rose can keep playing that kind of basketball through an entire postseason. 

The problem is that they apparently haven't been paying that much attention for the last half of the season while Rose and the Bulls have been running up those impressive winning numbers. Not only can the Bulls win when teams play hard, they have won in part because teams play them hard. 

Over the last 35 games, while the Bulls have been putting together their impressive finish to the season winning those aforementioned 31 games, Rose has been to the stripe just shy of 8 times per game and made just shy of 90 percent of those free throw attempts.

Since the All-Star game he's gone 8.6 times per game. The only player who has attempted more shots than him over that span is Dwight Howard and no player has made more than him. When he shoots at least eight free throw attempts the Bulls are 32-7, more than 100 points higher than when he shoots seven or less.

They are 15-3 when he shoots 10 or more free throw attempts, which is even higher than when he shoots eight or more. The more free-throws Rose attempts, the more likely the Bulls are to win. 

Part of the story is that the fact is fouling Rose more and making him beat you at the line just doesn't work. Indiana hasn't been the first ones to try it. Teams have been trying that for the last two months, and all that happens is the Bulls win. It doesn't work because Rose makes the free throws. 

If you think fouling him is going to get into his head think again. There's no stat for "angry free throws" but if there were I could assure you that that percentage goes up. 

The rest of the story is that no one that the Bulls are likely to see through the rest of the  playoffs have the personnel to play the way the Bulls have been playing. It only matters if this is the blueprint if the teams they face have the players to execute it. 

As previously stated the reason the Pacers have been forcing a contest is that they have been gooning it up. They've been slowing things down, dropping hard fouls and playing "playoff" basketball. Four Pacers big men, Roy Hibber (15), Josh McRobers, (10), Tyler Hansbrough (8) and Jeff Foster (8) have combined for 45 personal fouls between them in just three games.

How many of those other Eastern Conference teams can dole out that many personal fouls from their big men without hurting their game. None of those players are depended on for a lot of offense. The Pacers get their scoring from Danny Granger and their guards. They don't need their big men to score, they need to them to play hard inside defense. 

The Orlando Magic have Dwight Howard, the best big man in the game, but the last thing they need is Howard taking five fouls trying to police Rose. The Miami Heat can't afford to lose Bosh's offense and well, his defense isn't great anyway. The Boston Celtics traded away their interior defense. 

That doesn't mean the other teams haven't tried though. Orlando, Miami and Boston have tried fouling Rose. In his last eight games against the three teams he's averaged 9.25 free throw attempts against them, and shot 91 percent from the stripe.

Of course that includes one of the Miami games where he only took three free-throw attempts. That didn't work out either as Rose went 12 of 23 from the field. In fact his eFG percentage in those games is .577. 

This brings up the double edged sword of all of this. If you foul Rose going to the rim, he's going to make the shots at the stripe. If you don't foul him going to the lane he's going to beat you going to the lane. It's hard to believe that the blueprint to beating the Bulls comes off of a three game set of failure.

So who else is going to execute this supposed blueprint? I don't see any other teams doing what Indiana has done. Are they better teams than the Pacers? Sure, but they aren't more physical, and it's the physical nature that has kept the games close. 

This brings up the final point. Keeping it close and winning are two different things. Derrick Rose, right now, is the best closer in the NBA. I know what you're thinking but here are some facts for you that have nothing to do with being a homer. 

In "clutch time" defined by 82 games as five minutes left in regular time over overtime, Derrick Rose trails only Kobe Bryant in points per 48 minutes. Kobe has about two more points, but Rose has two more rebounds and two more assists as well. In other words, this season Rose is the most productive player in the NBA in the clutch. 

You might be thinking, well so what? What does it matter if you don't win. In games decided by five points or less, the Bulls are 17-8, the best winning percentage in the NBA. If you want to include the two wins in the postseason in that they win 70 percent of their games down the stretch. 

Keeping the game close is playing right into the Bulls hands. They are the best team in close games because they have the best closer in the game. 

Are the Pacers giving us a blueprint on how to beat the Bulls? Absolutely not. They might be giving a blueprint on keeping it close, but that's the best they can do. No other team in the Eastern Conference can carry out that blueprint anyway. Don't read too much into this series.