Liver's Super Bowl XLI Pick: Manning, Colts To Beat the Bears and the Spread

Oh well, the Liver did finish over .500 for the season. And a word of note to his audience: Just because the title reads that I picked one team over another doesn't mean I picked them to WIN, it means that I picked them against the spread. That's why I always insert 'AGAINST THE SPREAD' in my intoduction. If I pick a team to win, then I'll tell you 'straight up.'

Just goes to show: You can't believe everything you read in the headlines.

But back to the issue at hand. Is there a better day than Super Bowl Sunday? (Oh, I'm sorry NFL: 'Big Game Sunday.' Wouldn't want to get fined now.) Not only is it a day when you can literally drink from morning 'til night while gorging on food like an Ethiopian at a Sam's Club, you also don't have to come up with an excuse when you stumble into work two hours late the next day.

Not that it's all good, though. First, you've got to endure hours of pregame hype, commercials, and rock concerts that have NOTHING to do with the game. Then you've got to watch the game with football novices, usually women, some of them attractive, and cringe when they ask such migraine-inducing questions as "Why don't they kick the ball more? It is called FOOTBALL right?" and "What is the quarterback doing squatted down behind that fat guy?" You also get to hear stellar analysis of the teams from said women as they declare themselves Colts fans because "the Colts' uniform pants make their butts look cute."

Thank goodness for the booze and the drugs.

All things considered, I'd rather be in Miami this weekend, where the other 'media' members are getting shit-faced with NBA and NFL players while flirting with Maxim models and Playboy Playmates. But you can't win 'em all, and so I'll bid you farewell until the 2007 preseason with these words of wisdom:

User Chasers on Sunday. THEY WORK.

Of course it goes without saying that the following Super Bowl pick AGAINST THE SPREAD is for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Latrell Sprewell, Jerry Jones, Eric Musselman, Sean Salisbury, Andy Reid's boys Garret and Britt, Nick Saban, the members of The Fall Creek Baptist Church in Indianapolis, Lindsay Lohan, and Tara Conner would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's pick.

2006 Conference Championship Record: 0-2

2006 Playoff Record: 3-7

2006 Regular Season Record: 130-120-6

Sunday, February 4, 2007

Super Bowl XLI : Chicago (+7) vs. Indianapolis

What can be said that you haven't already heard? Did you know that there are two African-American head coaches in the Super Bowl for the first time? Just in case you haven't been beaten over the head with that enough. It could be worse, just imagine if the Saints had made it to Miami.

The matchup here is hard to get a handle on. When the line first posted at 7 1⁄2, EVERYONE jumped on Chicago. I guess when it got down to 6 1⁄2 people realized that they were gambling on Rex Grossman making plays for the second game in a row. Needless to say, the move to 7 hasn't made the game any easier to handicap.

You have the tried-and-true cliche of a great offense (Colts) versus a great defense (Bears). One of the big factors in Indy's favor is that the Bears run the exact same Cover-Two scheme the Colts employ. That means Peyton Manning has been practicing against this defense for five years, and should know EXACTLY when and where to strike.

Now, if you're a Bears fan you can say, "Rex Grossman practices against the same defense too,"but that would presume that Grossman and Manning are comparable quarterbacks, which they very clearly are NOT.

The Bears will most likely use their two safeties to shut down Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. The problem is that, in these playoffs, TE Dallas Clark has been the difference-maker for the Colts. Not only does he lead the team in postseason receiving yards (281) and catches (17), but whenever Manning has needed a big play for a first down, he has found Clark over the middle.

The Bears best chance against Clark comes in the form of middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, who has the speed to keep up with the tight end in the seam. If Urlacher can control Clark, the Bears will be in good shape.

Also look for Manning to run the no-huddle offense early so as to keep the Bears from making substitutions and adjustments. Peyton may or may not audible for real at the line, but he certainly isn't above acting up a storm to fake out the defense.

On the ground, both sides feature solid running tandems: Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson for the Bears; Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai for the Colts. The Colts defense, since the return of Bob Sanders, has been very impressive in shutting down the run, while the Bears defense struggled against Shaun Alexander before stifling Deuce McAllister. Expect Lovie Smith to rely on the ground game in the first half to keep the ball out of Grossman's hands.

Ultimately, the game will come down to special teams, one of the few areas in which the Bears have a clear-cut advantage. Rookie Pro Bowler Devin Hester won several games for Chicago with his brilliant return skills this season. He also, it's worth noting, has a disturbing habit of putting the ball on the ground from time to time, so his performance will be crucial to the Bears' chances on Sunday.

The Colts, on the other hand, sport perhaps the worst coverage units in the league, and gave up a number of huge returns throughout the year. They've yet to give up any big plays in the playoffs, but they've also yet to face anyone as talented as Hester.

Both teams have elite kickers in Adam Vinatieri (Colts) and Robbie Gould (Bears). We know how Vinatieri performs in the Super Bowl spotlight; we don't know about Gould, yet.

My final analysis: Look for the Bears to feed off the underdog status in the first half, as the defense is likely to come out with a serious chip on its shoulder. In the end, though, I expect the Colts to take control of the game in the late third quarter and pull away in the fourth. Peyton Manning will finally get that concrete slab of a monkey off his back, and we'll all be able to stop with the "Can he win the big one?" questions. So, straight up and against the spread...

Pick: Colts