ALCS Preview: The Fate Of Boston May Depend On Josh Beckett's $10 Million Arm

If baseball were based off numbers, there would be no point in playing the game.  On paper the Tampa Bay Rays are the best team in the ALCS, but that's what was said of the Angels in the ALDS before Boston shut them down three games to one.

It's no secret that the key to this series, as it is in any series, is going to be the pitching, that's the key to winning any game.  It doesn't matter how good your offense is if your giving up more runs on defense.  The Texas Rangers proved that this season by leading the majors with 901 runs, 46 more than the second place Cubbies.  But when it came down to it they finished under .500 this season with a team average 5.37 ERA, the worst in the majors.

Lets take a quick look at a couple of the pitching match-ups, key players, and who is going to need to step it up for their club to help them advance to the next level.

Game 2 in Tampa Bay, Kazmir vs Beckett.  I think this is going to be the most crucial match-up of the series and, ultimately, may be the deciding factor on who advances to the World Series. 

Josh Beckett, the Godfather of postseason pitching, is worth double that of Tampa Bay's Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine combined.  All four of which are set to pitch for the Rays in the ALCS.  However Beckett is a monster in the postseason, easily one of the top five post season pitchers of all time, therefore it could be money well spent.  On the down side, Beckett's been plagued with injuries throughout most of this season and looked a bit rusty on the mound in Game Three of the ALDS.  If Beckett is able to regain his scary postseason status and earn Boston the win in Tampa Bay that will give Boston the momentum as they take the series back home tied at one or up by two, depending on Matsuzaka's performance in Game One.

Game 4 in Boston, Wakefield vs Sonnanstine.  I was glad to see Wakefield make it into the rotation for this series, as he and Mike Mussina co-own the record for most career wins against the Rays with nineteen.  I was a bit surprised that Francona chose to have him pitch at Fenway rather than inside the dome at Tropicana Field.  Wakefield excels with his knuckleball in dome stadiums, especially so in St. Petersburg.  However Boston went 10-4 when Wakefield was on the mound at Fenway this year, and 0-3 when he pitched at the Trop this season.

If Sonnansine is able to earn the win for the Rays in Game Four, that would give Tampa Bay the momentum as they head back to Tropicana Field.  The Rays will be more aggressive on offense in this game.   Wakefield's slow delivery allows, an already fast offense, more time to get a jump on stealing bases.

Tampa Bay's offense is dialed.  Expect Iwamura, Pena and Longoria to get the bats going while Upton tries to show Ellsbury he can steal bases too.  Their defense is solid as well with Longoria and Pena on the corners and Upton in center field.

Boston is going to need Pedroia to step it up and be the hit machine he was throughout the regular season.  They will also need to see Big Papi, Youkalis and JD Drew dazzle the crowd with their full potential as power hitters.  Having Lowell out of the line up for this series is going to shake things up a bit, but the depth of Boston's lineup should have no trouble adjusting.  Kotsay will play a key role if they choose to leave him at first and move Youkalis to third.  Ellsbury and Pedroia will continue to be solid defensively as well.

I think this series will be the best match-up of the year as Boston is looking to defend their World Champion status, and prove they can do it without Manny.  While Tampa Bay will be fighting for their first ever trip to the World Series, and prove everyone wrong who doubted them earlier in the season.

It will also be fun watching Jacoby Ellsbury and Evan Longoria not only duke it out for a trip to the World Series, but for the possible title of American League Rookie of the Year.

Regardless of mathematical equations and history lessons, so in a series most feel will be closer and more dramatic than the World Series, who comes out victorious?  The Rays have the numbers but the Red Sox have the track record, and that's the reason why they play the game.