2011 Kentucky Derby: Big Prep Races Weekend Including Uncle Mo at the Big a
Arguably the best trainer in the game today, Todd Pletcher will be saddling last year's two year old champion colt Uncle Mo in today's Wood Memorial. Going up against eight other contenders, Uncle Mo has been chosen as the 1 to 5 morning line favorite. A number that is likely to drop even lower as race time nears.
In the Illinois Derby, a field of twelve will butt heads with Watch Me Go who is currently instilled as the 7 to 2 morning line favorite. In an extremely weak and open field look for a wild and tightly contested race to unfold.
The final Kentucky Derby prep of the day takes us out to the historic Santa Anita Park for the Santa Anita Derby. With the recent injury and scratch of Premier Pegasus, Bob Baffert's colt, Jaycito, takes over as the 2 to 1 morning line favorite. Ten other rivals will look to take down Jaycito in a race that should be extremely competitive.
Wood Memorial: Yet Another Uncle Mo Glorified Workout?
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Last year's two year old champion colt, Uncle Mo, will make his second start of his 2011 three year old campaign today in the Wood Memorial. Undefeated in his four lifetime starts, Uncle Mo has yet to be seriously challenged in all four of his victories. Even in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he parked the field with an eye-opening four and a quarter length victory over Boys At Toscanova. A horse that was posed to give Uncle Mo a big time challenge, and maybe even beat him.
In Uncle Mo's only three year old race, he easily put a field of five horses away as he was able to walk through fractions of :25 and 2, :49 and 2, and 1:13 and 3 while being hand-ridden to a three and three quarters victory in the Timely Writer.
In today's Wood Memorial, it doesn't look like he'll face much of a challenge this time around either. The only true speed in the race is D Wayne Lukas' colt Duca. Undoubtedly he'll be sent to the lead to make Uncle Mo pass somebody which he has only done once in his four lifetime starts. Either way, Uncle Mo showed the ability to rate in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile as he waited patiently in second place before exploding down the backstretch at Churchill Downs.
The only horse that looks like he may have the pedigree and gusto to pull off the big shocker is Toby's Corner. His deep closing tactics could come in handy if Uncle Mo is pressed into some brutal upfront fractions setting up his late running tactics. Hard to see that being the case, and with Uncle Mo romping to another big victory don't be shocked to see some big shots coming in underneath. Horses such as Arthur's Tale, Preachintothedevil and Norman Asbjornson could easily fill out the Superfecta underneath Uncle Mo.
WINNER: Uncle Mo
Illinois Derby: Time to Break out the Dart Board
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In what is easily the weakest field of the three Kentucky Derby prep races today, the Illinois Derby may bring about the most exciting and competitive of the bunch.
The field of twelve has four horses that have yet to even win a Maiden race, and yet are entered into a race that will undoubtedly provide the winner an entrance into the Kentucky Derby.
On paper, Watch Me Go has this field completely outclassed. Having run in two graded stakes races this year already (winning one), there are only two other horses that have even competed in a graded stakes race: The Fed Eased and El Grayling. The Fed Eased raced in the Grade III Gotham Stakes in which he folded miserably from the front to finish a meager fifth. El Grayling raced in the Grade II Fountain of Youth and didn't even finish the race as he was eased out of contention in the stretch run.
With all that said, I'll have a hard time backing a horse that is very likely to bounce after his 43 to 1 shot victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Outside of Southern Sculptor, Roman Flame and Lagoon of Diamonds, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the other nine horses come out on top in this race. And yes, that includes two horses that have yet to break their maiden.
Look for long shot Lagoon of Diamonds to break to an early lead, and likely press some hot fractions to try and steal this race from the lead. After all, it is his only chance of winning this race. Joe Vann and The Fed Eased could get caught up in gaining the lead as well, limiting their chances of winning.
I fully expect a rather hot pace which should set up for some deep closers down the stretch as the field will likely be lumbering home. In the end, I'll look towards breeding and stamina to be the final and deciding factor in this one.
WINNER: Sour or Zoebear
Santa Anita Derby: Jaycito to Romp?
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Legendary trainer Bob Baffert is on the Triple Crown trail yet again with today's 2 to 1 favorite in the San Anita Derby. Jaycito, despite not having won either of his last two races is the early morning line favorite. And quite a surprising 2 to 1 favorite at that.
In a field with a number of intriguing horses, we should fully expect quite a few game horses to be running down the stretch. With a lack of much speed up front in this race, Midnight Interlude will likely be handed the lead in what could be some very generous fractions. Only Offlee Wild Boys or Anthony's Cross may look to press Midnight Interlude upfront. If the fractions are too generous, the other Baffert trained colt in this race could end up stealing this one from the lead.
From there, we have a bunch of stalkers and closers including the favored Jaycito.
With a bunch of seasoned three year olds vying for this race, we should fully expect an exciting finish that looks like five or six horses have a serious shot at winning.
Much like the Illinois Derby, however, I'm going to look towards breeding and stamina to make the difference.
WINNER: Mr. Commons or Silver Medallion
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