30 Teams in 30 Days: Indiana Pacers

2007-2008 in Review

Record: 36-46
Eastern Conference Seed: 9

Summer of 2008

Key Additions: T.J. Ford (via trade), Brandon Rush (via trade), Roy Hibbert (via trade), Jarrett Jack (via trade), Rasho Nesterovic (via trade), Josh McRoberts (via trade), Austin Croshere (via free agency).

Key Losses: Jermaine O’Neal (via trade), Kareem Rush (via free agency), Ike Diogu (via trade), David Harrison (via free agency), Andre Owens (via free agency).

On July 9, the Jermaine O’Neal era officially and finally came to a close in Indiana, as he was shipped to Toronto along with the draft rights to Nathan Jawai (41st overall) in exchange for dazzling guard T.J. Ford, veteran center Rasho Nesterovic, athletic forward Maceo Baston, and the draft rights to Roy Hibbert (17th overall).

This is a move that was long overdue. Despite the love and support O’Neal has from the Indiana faithful, it was time for a change. It was time to pick a direction. It was time to rebuild. It was time to move on.

Any time you give up a six-time All-Star big man, it’s a tough pill to swallow in some respects, even if this one just so happens to be frequently injured and coming off of his worst season as a Pacer. However, the incoming package is nothing to complain about.

T.J. Ford, who has also battled injuries (most notably involving his spine) throughout his young career, is undoubtedly one of the league’s quickest guards, as well as perhaps one of its better playmakers.

When healthy, Ford is a guy that can create and get his teammates involved at a very high level. Throughout the 2006-07 season, the super-quick facilitator held averages of 14 points and 7.9 assists per game, equal to 18.7 points and 10.6 assists per 40 minutes. As long as the 25-year-old guard can manage to avoid the injury bug, his skills and style should mesh perfectly with Jim O’Brien’s desired tempo and offensive philosophies.

Another promising youngster acquired in this deal is Roy Hibbert, who was one of the most fundamentally sound collegiate centers throughout his junior and senior years at Georgetown.

Though a bit sluggish and slow, Hibbert is an extremely polished basketball player, with a terrific understanding of the game and a true love of playing it. He knows how to get position, he’s got a beautiful touch, and he’s an absolutely outstanding passer out of the post, which should bode well for him in Indiana.  Despite his lateral disadvantages, he is an exceptional shot blocker who can help protect the basket on the defensive end.

Don’t expect future stardom from the 7’2’’ rookie, but expect a very productive career, a great locker-room presence, and a true winner.

Hibbert also has a vastly similar veteran to learn from in Rasho Nesterovic.

Nesterovic will never “wow you” or encourage you to write a letter home to dad, but he quietly gets the job done. He’ll rebound, block shots, eat space, give defensive effort, and put terrific passing ability on display—which O’Brien has raved about in camp as of late.  He can even put the ball in the basket if needed, averaginf 12.4 PPG post-All-Star break last season.

However, the most important anecdote regarding Nesterovic’s presence on this team is his experience. The seven-footer has not only played 10 years of NBA ball, but has been a crucial piece on the 2005 San Antonio Spurs championship team. That kind of knowledge and veteran savvy will be nothing but a positive influence on Indiana’s young core.

The fact that he has $8.4 million coming off the books at the conclusion of this coming season doesn’t hurt, either.

Larry Bird didn’t stop there, however. In addition to the blockbuster with Toronto, Indiana pulled off a five-player deal with Portland, as well, which sent Ike Diogu and the draft rights to Jerryd Bayless (11th overall) to the Trail Blazers for Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts, and the draft rights to Brandon Rush (13th overall).

There aren’t many backup point guards in the NBA better than Jack, especially when the puniness of T.J. Ford is in front of him. Jack gives the Pacers flexibility and a much-needed change of size and style off the bench.

While Ford is using his quickness to his advantage, attacking holes, and creating for his teammates, Jack provides a new dimension with his size, defense, and ability to play both guard positions. Think of him as a more versatile and athletic Eric Snow, in his prime.

While on to the topic of versatility—Brandon Rush is the epitome of that noun. A long, athletic 6’6’’ swingman who can effectively run the floor, shoot, defend, finish at the rim, and provide the willingness to sacrifice for the betterment of the team—what more can you ask for?

There is nothing that this 2008 national champion can’t do, and you could even make the argument that his skill set is in the mold of fellow former Jayhawk Paul Pierce. The only concerns regarding Rush, whose presence unintentionally ran his brother Kareem out of Indiana, pertain to the history of his knee injuries, highlighted by two ACL tears within a three-year period of time at KU.

However, as long as Rush can remain as healthy as he was in his junior year, the Pacers have one of the NBA’s most complete young players in their hands.

The surprise of the team’s offseason is that former Pacer Austin Croshere was invited to compete for a roster spot in training camp.  The 33-year-old veteran forward spent nine seasons with the Pacers from 1997-2006, and within that time became a fan favorite in Hoosierville. Word on the street is that the organization thinks so highly of him that they would consider making two cuts in order to find a roster spot for him.

Perhaps the only negative to Indiana’s offseason is the fact that Jamaal Tinsley remains on the payroll. Rumor has it, though, that he may be headed out of town (Denver?) as early as today. Keep your eyes peeled for that—but even if that turns out to be nothing more than hearsay, do not expect number 11 to appear in any games for this team this coming season.

Depth Chart

C: Jeff Foster / Rasho Nesterovic / Roy Hibbert
PF: Troy Murphy / Austin Croshere / Josh McRoberts / Maceo Baston
SF: Danny Granger / Shawne Williams / Stephen Graham
SG: Mike Dunleavy / Brandon Rush / Marquis Daniels
PG: T.J. Ford / Jarrett Jack / Travis Diener / Jamaal Tinsley*

Biggest Strength: Spacing

If there’s one thing you can say about the Indiana Pacers, it’s that the roster is filled with Jim O’Brien's kind of players. In other words, players at every position that can stretch the floor and shoot the ball.

On the wings, you’ve got terrific shooters in guys like Mike Dunleavy Jr., Danny Granger, and Brandon Rush. At the one-spot, you’ve got an absolute sniper in Travis Diener and a respectable jump-shooter in Jarrett Jack. Even up front, there’s Troy Murphy and Austin Croshere to stroke it from deep, and Rasho Nesterovic to keep the defense honest from 15 to 18 feet.

Having this kind of shooting cast is only going to help T.J. Ford thrive in running this offense. With ample spacing, Ford will have the room to attack the basket and kick out to reliable shooters if the defense comes to help off of his penetration—which is inevitable.

Biggest Weakness: Post Presence

The Pacers have some outstanding veterans up front, but none of them are going to do a whole lot of damage on the blocks. Without a post presence, the majority of Indiana’s offense tends to come in the form of jump shots, therefore limiting the team’s amount of easy opportunities close to the basket.

As a result, Indiana ranked 23rd in field goal percentage (44.4 percent) and 24th in points in the paint (29.6 per game) this past season.

In essence, this team’s strength can be its weakness at times. To be a legitimate contender, you’ve got to find ways to find a reasonable balance between the output of both your perimeter and interior game. Indiana has a lot of talent, but without that post option to dump the ball down to for higher-percentage shots, they’ll struggle to find themselves primed for playoff runs.

X-Factor: T.J. Ford’s Health

As previously mentioned, T.J. Ford has had ongoing spinal troubles, which have periodically hindered his development as a player on more than one occasion. During a game against Minnesota in February of 2004, Ford suffered a spinal cord contusion that forced him to sit out the remainder of his rookie season, and threatened his career altogether.

Luckily, that wasn’t the case, but he was indeed required to miss the entire 2004-05 season for rehabilitation and recuperation.

On December 11, 2007, Ford was carried out of a game on a stretcher for similar circumstances—yet much less severe—after being whacked on the head in mid-air by Al Horford. Ford proceeded to miss 24 games before returning to the floor in Miami on February 4. Prior to his return, however, there was talk both from both speculators and Ford himself that went as far as suggesting that his career could be over.

One again, that fortunately wasn’t the case, but injury concerns will always surround the former Texas Longhorn. Should he put together a healthy '08-09 campaign, expect him to reestablish himself as one of the top 10 or 12 points guards in the league. If not, however, it may be difficult for the Pacers to creep closer to—let alone move beyond—that .500 mark.

What to Expect In 2008-2009

Whether the Pacers have improved as a team or not, it’s going to be tough to match or top last season’s 36-46 record. Multiple Eastern Conference clubs are expected to improve this coming season, and for that reason, don’t be surprised to see Indiana take a slight hit in the win column in '08-09. Regardless, this team is headed in the right direction and has a very promising future ahead of them.

Don’t be concerned with continued mediocrity in 2009, Pacers fans. Despite what the record may show, good things are on tap for the organization, as opposed to prior Pacers groups with little to look forward to. Mediocrity is tough to live with in the present—but this time around, there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

2008-2009 Predictions

34-48
Third in Central Division
11th in Eastern Conference

Tomorrow: Los Angeles Clippers