2011 AL Central Predictions: Twins, Sox or Tigers on Top?
This is how I think the AL Central is likely to play out. Generally considered one of the weaker divisions in baseball, I've seen three teams cited as possible division winners by different sources.
The Twins have taken the lead in six of the last nine seasons, and remain a solid pick due to their talented core and seemingly intangible gift for winning.
The White Sox, last year's runner-ups, are the only team from this division to win a championship in the last decade. They have rebuilt in some key areas and are a trendy World Series pick.
The Tigers ended a decade of futility in the mid-2000s with the emergence of young talent on the mound and an unheralded, but effective, offense. Several key additions over the years have given them a competitive team in the mold of that 2006 squad.
The Indians are still awaiting the returns of the CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee deals of recent years. They have youth in spades, most of it unproven. Not without talent, they could surprise some people.
The Royals are not an inane pick for worst team in baseball. This is a crazy game, and the athletes who wear Royal Blue are a million times more talented than your average human being. Will they make fools of us all?
We'll see. Here are my bets.
1. Minnesota Twins
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It’s going to be an exciting three-team race in this division, but I think the Twins have a slight edge over the competition.
They have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball, last year finishing second to the Yankees in OBP and third in batting average to (believe it or not) the Royals and Rangers.
People seem to value Chicago’s pop over Minnesota’s poise, but let’s not be hasty. The Twins will score runs, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (hopefully recovering), giving them two of the best pure hitters in the division. Delmon Young’s gift for making contact with the ball has gone underappreciated and this team has, arguably, the best DH in the game.
They complement these pieces with an unspectacular but dependable supporting cast, made up of guys like Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Jason Kubel.
Francisco Liriano is an ace with electric stuff and command to back it up. Carl Pavano has relearned to pitch and Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are solid middle rotation guys. Brian Deunsing is going to be something like a left-handed Pavano, and Nick Blackburn will do fine in long relief once Kevin Slowey steals his job.
The bullpen has been depleted, but it was wise not to overpay for reliable middle relief, since that can so easily be found, either in-house or via waivers.
They are going to rank among the better teams in terms of runs scored and ERA. In that division, even with improved teams in Detroit and Chicago, the Twins still could win somewhere around 90 games.
Morneau is the wild card that pushes them over the edge. If they lose him and/or Mauer for too long, I’m ready to hand the division over to someone else.
2. Chicago White Sox
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Their pitching rotation probably has more upside than Detroit’s and Minnesota’s, but also has some serious question marks.
How long can Mark Buehrle be effective? Will Jake Peavy ever heal? Is Edwin Jackson going to repeat his 2009 performance? Can John Danks and Gavin Floyd carry this rotation if the other three struggle?
What the White Sox have are five guys who give the team a reasonable chance to win their games but they also have some volatility in that rotation. Of course, volatility doesn't necessarily equate to ineffectiveness, but the story in Chicago should be the offense.
Already a potent lineup, they will score even more runs this year.
Juan Pierre had a year to get used to his new league; Adam Dunn has unreal power even if the average drops some; Paul Konerko will be a force in the middle of the lineup even if he doesn’t hit .300 again; Alex Rios is a well-rounded talent.
Alexei Ramirez is a good hitter but really needs to take more walks; Gordon Beckham is probably somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 forms talent-wise; Brent Morel owns the third base job for now but I don’t expect him to be anything too great. I also think A.J. Pierzynski’s years are numbered, though his contact-hitting skills are still above average.
Carlos Quentin and Dayan Viciedo are each worth at least 30 home runs if either plays the whole season, though Viciedo probably won’t.
This was also one of the worst fielding teams in baseball last year.
I think people are slightly overrating this team, but I would be very surprised to see them win fewer than, say, 86 games. In all honestly, I could see the order of the top three in this division flip-flopping any which way by the time the season ends. The differences between these ballclubs are not staggering.
3. Detroit Tigers
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They have a top-heavy rotation and lineup. The question is whether the tops are heavy enough.
Last year, Detroit posted the third-worst ERA in the AL. This year Verlander and Scherzer are studs at the top of the rotation and the duds are gone. The command-less Jeremy Bonderman and surprisingly almost-perfect Armando Galarraga are gone.
Replacing them are Phil Coke and Brad Penny, both of whom have the stuff to be reasonable middle rotation guys. But this rotation is shallower than either of the two teams I have ranked ahead of them.
The offense is another tale of ups and downs. Austin Jackson is going to regress from his 100-run campaign. I like Ryan Raburn in left field and still think Magglio Ordonez is an elite OBP guy.
The left side of the infield is weak, but Miguel Cabrera is still a perennial MVP candidate (and will win one of these years). Victor Martinez should hit around .300 with 20 home runs. Second baseman Will Rhymes could surprise everyone with a run at 200 hits.
A clear step below the elite teams in the game but they could surprise everyone and take this division if the stars align.
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4. Cleveland Indians
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Still rebuilding. And hoping that Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner heal, and hoping Shin-Soo Choo either decides to stick around or nets them some serious prospects.
This team was just abysmal last year. They scored fewer runs than all but four teams, at least two of which are likely bets to outscore Cleveland in 2011; their defense was worse than all teams other than Pittsburgh in terms of UZR; their team ERA was 24th in all of baseball.
Their best pitcher is young Carlos Carrasco, who probably has the best combination of stuff and command on the team but cannot be counted on to single-handedly turn this group around.
Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson live and die with the ground ball and the rest of the rotation are tailor-made fifth starters.
The bullpen is too prone to the walk, almost to the point of insanity.
The lineup relies on unprovens: Michael Brantley in center field, Joel Hannahan at third base and Matt LaPorta at first base.
LaPorta has potential 25-HR power. Asdrubal Cabrera remains a solid, unheralded contact hitter who could hit around .290 or higher and, of course, we all know what Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo did last year.
If they were surrounded by a better supporting cast and competent pitching, this would be an interesting team. As it stands, they’re looking at another losing season.
5. Kansas City Royals
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This offseason, the Royals traded away the most exciting thing to happen in Kansas City since 1985.
Their rotation is a disaster waiting to happen; I ranked them last in all of baseball here.
The lineup has a few pieces of value but that value is diminished when surrounded by reserves and castaways. Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Getz and Brayan Pena are all candidates to lose their jobs to even less talented players.
There may be some things to like about this team, but there are way too few of them. Kila Ka’aihue was on pace for something like 24 home runs and 75 RBI if he’d played the whole season. Billy Butler is a real talent with 96 doubles over the last two seasons and averages above .300. Joakim Soria is one of the best closers in the game, ranking in the top five in my opinion.
Alcides Escobar will hit better this season due to regression and Mike Aviles is another good contact hitter but there just isn’t enough there to score many runs and that rotation would need a ton of run support.
Mike Moustakas will get a chance at some point, but I don’t think he’d have enough of an impact for the Royals to catch the Indians. Seventy wins seems like their ceiling, but I don't know if I would even bet on that.
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