Fantasy Basketball Crystal Ball: A Look at Next Week's Fantasy Playoff Matchups
This is fantasy basketball crunch time, when championships are won and leads are lost. If you’re playing in a head-to-head league, then next week is either going to be your championship week or semifinal week. You don’t want to just walk in there and throw your lineup out without considering the schedules and matchups for your players. Just because one player has been slightly better this year doesn’t mean he’ll be better this week in this schedule.
Here are some of the players and teams that you might want to play this week, and some that you might be better off just avoiding all together.
Start ‘Em
Mike Bibby: The Heat are one of many teams with four games this week. While all four are on the road, that isn’t nearly as important as who they are against.
Miami gets Cleveland, Washington, Minnesota and New Jersey this week. Of the four teams, the Nets have the best defense and they're only 15th best. The other three are all among the seven worst defenses when it comes to points allowed. All four of them are also in the bottom half of the league in opponents three-point percentage, with Cleveland being the worst. Mario Chalmers is expected to miss most, if not all, of this week’s games and so Bibby is going to get around 30 minutes per game and he should get plenty of good looks from three-point land. He’s still not an elite option, but if you are choosing between Bibby’s four games and a middle-of-the-pack point guard’s three games, Bibby might actually be the better choice.
DeMarcus Cousins: I would hope that you have been starting Cousins already, but if you're not, make sure you do.
For one, the Kings will be playing a very favorable schedule, with two games against the Nuggets, one against the Suns and one against the struggling Jazz, which means Cousins isn’t the only King you want to play. Not only do the teams give up points, but the Nuggets get more shots blocked per game than almost anyone and Phoenix is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA as well.
Furthermore, look at what Cousins has done so far this year against those teams. In seven games against the three teams, he’s averaging 19.1 points and 10 rebounds per game.
James Harden: Harden has been a huge benefactor of the trade of Jeff Green, playing more minutes, taking more shots and scoring more points. So far in March, Harden is averaging 17.2 points and he is shooting 49 percent from the field. Harden is also one of the Thunder’s leading three-point shooters, attempting 5.2 per game since the trade of Jeff Green.
On slate for this week for Harden and the Thunder is Golden State, Phoenix, Portland and the Clippers. With the exception of Portland, they all average 102 points given up per game or more, and they are all in the bottom half of the league when it comes to three-pointers allowed. Harden is locked in as the No. 3 scoring option on this team and he should have no problem scoring in bunches this week.
Other favorable team schedules: Dallas Mavericks, Orlando Magic, Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns.
Sit ‘Em
Jamal Crawford: I’m not crazy about playing any Hawks this week, with the exception of the big three: Josh Smith, Al Horford and Joe Johnson. They only play three games and two of them are against top-five defenses in Orlando and Boston, and all three teams are very good at defending against the three-pointer.
Furthermore, Crawford has not been good at all since the All-Star break, averaging just 11.8 points, taking two fewer shots per game and not really adding anything else other than threes. Over his last 10 games, Crawford’s scoring has dipped even further and he’s only averaged 9.5 points. Crawford is a scorer. That’s what he brings to the fantasy basketball table, so if that’s not working for him, he’s not worth having in your lineup.
Michael Beasley: I’m an unashamed supporter of Michael Beasley, so this is not a knock on the guy. And this probably only pertains to those in standard leagues or shallower. But if you are in one of those leagues, Beasley isn’t a lock for your lineup this week.
For one, he is on a three-game week. Secondly, he has the No. 1 defense (Chicago) and No. 6 defense (Miami) to contend with, not to mention he also has Memphis, which isn’t a weak defense either, giving up just a shade over 98 points per game. Granted, you’d have to have a real strong bench to put somebody in for Beasley, but if you do have a strong bench and you have a guy who is playing four games, you have to consider it. These are the kinds of decisions that win championships.
The Detroit Pistons: I am actually including an entire team in the Sit ‘Em side of things. And I don’t think anyone is surprised to see this be the team I choose.
The Pistons only play three games, and two of them are against the best and second-best defenses in the league, Chicago and Boston. And besides that, nobody's minutes on this team seems to be secure with the exception of Greg Monroe. Can you really trust any of the guards to get consistent minutes? One night they’ll play 30 minutes and the next game that number will be cut in half, for no reason mind you. In fact, right now the most consistent guy in terms of points and minutes is Richard Hamilton, who not even a month ago was riding the bench. You can’t trust Coach Kuester’s rotation, and even if you could, you don’t want to this week against a very tough, short schedule.
Other unfavorable team schedules: Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Hornets, Toronto Raptors
So there’s your breakdown for the week to come. If you have any questions about specific players, matchups or lineup decisions, I’ll do my best to provide a quick answer or some advice for you. Best of luck down the stretch and keep checking back for more news.
For more fantasy basketball analysis for your fantasy playoffs and even for next season, check out The Rotoprofessor.
