Formula One 2011: Will Pirelli's Marbles Take Edge off Latest Rule Changes?

Finally. The first blows have been struck in anger for the 2011 Formula One season. The testing is over, and all of the speculation, offseason silliness and expert prognostications are history. Now all that matters are results on the road.

There have been a raft of changes since last season: adjustable rear wings, the reintroduction of KERS, new tyres, the end of the double-diffuser and f-duct and a swag of safety improvements. And the result of these changes? The same four teams at the top of the heap at the end of the first day’s practice.

Of course, the results of the main two changes—KERS and the adjustable rear wing—won’t be seen until the cars are actually racing and the use of the adjustable wing is strictly controlled. KERS also has to be used tactically. The idea is to promote overtaking.

We’ll have to wait until Sunday to see if it works, but it sounds promising.

Looking at the head-on shots of cars down Melbourne’s main straight in practice, it appears that the small change of six degrees in the rear wing makes a massive difference. The trick will be getting into a position where it’s actually useful.

But—and there’s always a but in the world of F1—for every change for the better, the FIA finds a way to take the gloss off things.

Pirelli have returned to the F1 world for the first time in 20 years. They have a long and proud history in motorsport, and many have welcomed their return, but there’s a problem.

Pirelli’s 2011 rubber has much higher wear rates than Bridgestone’s 2010 options, and that has a couple of different influences over racing.

Firstly, there will potentially be many more pit stops, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but more tyre wear can only really mean one thing on the track—more marbles. Photos of the track after testing in Jerez showed the off-line areas more covered in rubber than a playground.

While the outside of corners has always been an area where the marbles are pretty thick, the Pirellis are now shedding rubber on the straights too. The end result, cars might now have the ability to overtake, but if they stray off-line to do so, they will end up in the marbles and lose the ability to stop and steer effectively.

But all of this is hypothetical.

On Sunday afternoon all will be clear. The changes to the rules and tires might make the racing more interesting—time will tell—but don’t expect too many changes at the top of the leaderboard.

Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes GP will feature prominently, with the other teams fighting for the second-tier dominance and occasional forays into the higher points positions.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.