San Antonio Spurs: Would They Be Better Off vs. Mavs or Lakers in Western Finals

Breath again Spurs fans.  It sounds like Tim Duncan will be back by April 1st at the latest, so the focus can again shift back to the playoffs.

Unless there is an upset or two from lower seeded teams, the San Antonio Spurs should reach the Western Conference Finals expecting to see one of their two arch-rivals: The Dallas Mavericks or Los Angeles Lakers.

While both are currently battling for the No. 2 seed in a destined second round matchup, the Spurs should have an easier path to the conference finals through the OKC Thunder in the second round.

The Spurs will probably be more rested by then after what should be a grueling series between the Lakers and Mavs.  The question is who would be a more favorable matchup for the Spurs?

Here is a broken down comparison of the two teams, and where the Spurs hold the advantage to determine who Spurs fans will be rooting for in the Conference semifinals.

Starting Strong

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LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 03: Pau Gasol #16, Andrew Bynum #17, Kobe Bryant #24 and Derek Fisher #2 of the Los Angeles Lakers head to the bench after a time out trailing the San Antonio Spurs during the second half at Staples Center on February 3, 2011 i

The way games are started mean a lot more in the playoffs than the regular season.  It is important to gain momentum quickly in a playoff game, and that all begins with the starters.

The Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks all have top seven starting lineups in terms of efficiency, but the Lakers' starters average the most points per game at 72.9 points (seventh) compared to Dallas' 60.5 points per game (26th).  The Spurs fall in the middle at 68.0 points (16th).

The Lakers' starters also hold a defensive edge over the Mavs.  They average 30.4 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game compared to the Mavs' 25.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks.  Most of the Spurs defense comes from their starters who average 26.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks.

Whose starters would the Spurs rather face? Mavericks

Bench Play

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PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 17: Jason Terry #31 of the Dallas Mavericks shoots a free throw shot during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center on February 17, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Mavericks defeated the Suns 112-106. NOTE TO US

The Spurs and Mavs have two of the deepest benches in the league.  The Spurs' bench averages 35.6 points in 19.4 minutes per game.  The Mavs' bench averages 39.8 points in 19.6 minutes and the Lakers' bench averages 28.9 points in 16.2 minutes. 

Because each team uses their benches in different ways, here is the differential efficiency.  The Mavs' bench is first in the league at +11.8, the Spurs are sixth at +5.5 and the Lakers are 15th at -1.0. 

While the Mavs have several scoring threats off of the bench (Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, etc), the Lakers only real threat is Lamar Odom and he provides more concern on defense than offense for opponents.

Because the Lakers play their starters so much due to a lack of depth, they are more likely to wear down quicker, giving the Spurs bench more of an advantage.

Whose bench would the Spurs rather face? Lakers

Frontcourt

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DENVER, CO - JANUARY 21: Nene #31 of the Denver Nuggets puts up a shot between Andrew Bynum #17 and Pau Gasol #16 of the Los Angeles Lakers at the Pepsi Center on January 21, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees

Comparing each teams frontcourts are difficult.  The Lakers have more players that like to pound it inside and attack the glass, the Mavericks frontcourt can spread the floor a lot better and the Spurs fall in between with some of both.

The Mavs are more of a scoring threat up front led by Dirk Nowitzki (23.3 ppg), someone who can spread the floor and open lanes with his outside shooting. Overall, their front court averages 62.5 points per game (fourth).

However, the Lakers are much deeper down low with Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Odom, who are also much better defenders than anyone the Mavs have to offer.  They're only 13th in the league with 57.4 points per game, but they average 32.9 rebounds and 4.7 blocks.

The Lakers frontcourt is also the most efficient in the league behind Boston.  Basically, the Mavs front court will be tougher to defend and the Lakers will be tougher to score against.  Pick your poison.

Whose front court would the Spurs rather face? Mavericks

Backcourt

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NEW ORLEANS - NOVEMBER 04: Jason Terry #31, Shawn Marion #0, Jason Kidd #2 congratulate Jose Barea #11 of the Dallas Mavericks during the game against the New Orleans Hornets at New Orleans Arena on November 4, 2009 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO U

Yes, the Lakers do have one of the best shooting guards to ever play the game in Kobe Bryant, but that's about it.  When he's not on top of his game, the Lakers do not get the help from Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Matt Barnes that they need.

The Mavs, on the other hand, have a bundle of wealth in the backcourt.  They average the most assists in the league at 17.3 compared to just 10.8 assists from the Lakers (28th).  The Spurs are 13th with 13.1.

Stats tend to be skewed by shoot-first guys like Kobe, so by looking at efficiency, the Mavs are sixth and the Lakers are 13th.  Both teams will have a lot of trouble guarding the Spurs backcourt which happens to also be the most efficient in the league led by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili,. 

Whose back court would the Spurs rather face? Lakers

Defense Wins Championships

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NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 11: Amar'e Stoudemire #1 of the New York Knicks posts up against Ron Artest #15 of the Los Angeles Lakers at Madison Square Garden on February 11, 2011 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, b

Both the Lakers and Mavericks are good defensive clubs.  The Lakers are eighth in points allowed at 95.4 per game and the Mavericks are 10th at 96.2.

The Spurs are the top three-point shooting team in the league at 40.1 percent, so a key factor for either team stopping them is preventing too many open looks from beyond the arc. 

The Lakers are fourth in the league by allowing just 33.9 percent from beyond the arc, while the Mavs are 11th at 35.3 percent.

The Lakers are also a better rebounding team.  They are third in the league with 43.9 rebounds per game, while the Mavs are 15th with 41.2 rebounds per game.

Whose defense would the Spurs rather face? Mavericks

Erupting on Offense

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WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 26: Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks puts up a shot in front of Rashard Lewis #9 of the Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center on February 26, 2011 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agree

The Lakers, Spurs and Mavericks are all major threats on offense.  They rank fourth, fifth and sixth, respectively, in points per game.  However, the Mavericks and Spurs play more team-oriented and unselfish offense than the Lakers.

When the Lakers are struggling, Kobe usually tries to take over and pick the team up on his own.  It's something that rarely works and favors the Spurs defense which has an easier time guarding teams who like to play more one-on-one ball.

The Mavs are more of a threat as a whole on offense with more scoring weapons than the Lakers.  There's a reason they are second in the league in assists (23.7 per game) with the Spurs being sixth at 22.7 and the Lakers at 12th with 22.0. 

Jason Kidd and Tony Parker run the show a lot better than Derek Fisher and have more reliable backups with Barea and George Hill.

Whose offense would the Spurs rather face? Lakers

Home on the Road

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LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 17: Actor Jack Nicholson watches Game Seven of the 2010 NBA Finals at Staples Center between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers on June 17, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and

Even though the Spurs should have homecourt advantage no matter who they face, it's always important to get wins on the road.  Starting a series 2-0 at home doesn't mean much until you get that third win, and it's especially helpful if it comes on the road in Games 3 or 4.

In general, the Spurs have had less trouble winning in Dallas compared to Los Angeles where they are 35-64 all time.  This season the Lakers have a better home record (26-8) than the Mavs (25-11). 

Both have intimidating home crowds, but for whatever reason the Spurs have less trouble winning in Dallas than L.A.  Maybe there's more determination to silence their classless fans and big-mouthed sixth man.

Who would the Spurs rather face on the road? Mavericks

Road Warriors

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DALLAS, TX - MARCH 10: Shawn Marion #0 of the Dallas Mavericks drives the hoop against Jared Jeffries #9 of the New York Knicks at American Airlines Center on March 10, 2011 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by

If there's one mystifying trend the Mavericks set every year, it's that they tend to be better on the road than at home, and are often the only team with a better road than home record.

That is the case yet again (along with the Sacramento Kings who are about to leave their current home).  The Mavs are 24-10 for the best road record in the NBA. 

While the Lakers aren't far behind at 25-12, they tend to get a little more rattled on the road when things aren't going their way.  Both teams have won in San Antonio this season, but the Mavs are more of a threat on the road than the Lakers.

Who would the Spurs rather face at home? Lakers

Coaching

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LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Head coach Phil Jackson of the Los Angeles Lakers complains to a referee during the game with the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on February 25, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. The Lakers won 108-95. NOTE TO USER:

All three teams have some of the best coaches in the league.  The Spurs have the sarcastic Gregg Popovich, who probably gets more respect out of his players by yelling at them than any other coach in the league.  He's also been labeled a master of motivation and drawing up plays out of timeouts.

The Lakers have Zen Master Phil Jackson: The winningest coach of all time with 11 championships.  He'll be looking for his fourth three-peat (second with Kobe) before supposedly retiring after this season (he must be retiring because he hasn't been afraid to open his mouth lately).

Finally, the Mavericks have Rick Carlisle.  He has yet to lead them past the second round of the playoffs, but they have improved under him each season and will be looking to finally get the Mavs over the hump and back to the Finals.

Whose coach would the Spurs rather face? Mavericks

State of Mind

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SAN ANTONIO - APRIL 29: Guard Tony Parker #9 of the San Antonio Spurs takes a shot against Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals during the 2010 NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center on April 29, 2010 in San

Assuming one of these two series happens, both the Lakers and Mavericks are likely to approach the series with a different state of mind.

Should the two-time defending champion Lakers matchup with the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, they would probably come in with a little more (maybe too much?) confidence. 

The last time they lost to the Spurs in the playoffs was in 2003, and they have beaten them twice since then.  One of many things that could derail the Lakers is too much self-assurance and cockiness.

The Mavericks, on the other hand, still have a lot more to prove and gain in this series.  They have only made it to the Finals once and have yet to win a championship.  They have also lost series to lower seeded teams in three straight seasons, earning them a notorious reputation as underachievers. 

They have developed a very heated rivalry with the Spurs over the last decade and will be looking for revenge after last year's first round upset.  Oh yeah, they also have Mark Cuban trying to heat things up with his through the media.

Whose attitude would the Spurs rather face? Lakers

Conclusion

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SAN ANTONIO - APRIL 18: NBA Championship banners of the San Antonio Spurs after Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals during the 2009 NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center on April 18, 2009 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledge

There are two teams standing in the Spurs' way of a fifth trip to the NBA Finals.  Both the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers provide different challenges for the Spurs should they meet up in the Western Conference Finals.

Probably everyone has a different opinion on who they'd rather see the Spurs face in the third round.  My personal opinion is I'd rather see them face the Mavericks just because they know they can beat them. 

While the Lakers are proven and know how to get things done when it counts, the Mavericks have yet to prove themselves despite multiple chances.

The Mavericks might be the most favorable matchup for the Spurs, but the idea of beating the Lakers is just as intriguing!  What do you think?