NBA Power Rankings Hot and Not: Who Is Peaking in Time for the Playoffs?
Generally speaking, after the All-Star break is when teams start putting their playoff faces on. As teams jockey for position, or try to get into the playoffs at all, there are some that seem ready for the playoffs, some that are working out kinks, and some that are just in trouble.
The following is a look at the teams in playoff contention and how they are performing since the All-Star break. Teams are listed in order of how well they are playing since the break, not based on the entire season.
Make of it what you will, but there are some teams that are lower seeds right now that might be giving some higher seeds problems in the playoffs if some of the elite teams don't get it together.
Not: Atlanta Hawks
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There's a reason that the Hawks picture is a picture of Rose scoring on them. It's the lasting image burned into the corneas of the American public after what can only be described as an embarrassing beatdwon in their own gym last night.
The Hawks are 6-10 since the break, have been outscored by 6.0 points, and have a -11.0 efficiency differential since the break. They are playing like a team that wants an early summer vacation. The scary thing is that it could be worse.
Not: Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers are probably going to make the playoffs thanks to a pair of wins over the struggling Knicks and their surprising win over the Bulls. Those are probably more explainable by the Knicks playing defense like Santa Clause, and the Bulls getting caught in a trap game.
Since the break, the Pacers are an unintimidating 7-10, have been outscored by 5.2 points, and have an efficiency differential of -10.4. Let's face facts, surprise upsets aside, the Pacers aren't going to be a match for Chicago or Boston, and a big part of the prize of getting the top seed is playing the Pacers and getting some extra rest.
Not: New York Knicks
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After all the Knicks did to try and get him, all they had to trade away to get him, and the contract they gave him when he arrived, you have to appreciate the way that Anthony has declared that the Knicks are going to be a team who can compete next year.
RECORD SCRATCH!
Next year? Really? I don't even care if it's a valid excuse, you don't need to say it out loud 'Melo. At least talk up the game like you intend to try and do something before the playoffs start.
Since the break the Knicks are playing like a team that intends to start trying next year. They are 7-9 since the break, have a margin of victory of 1.3 and an efficiency differential of .8. What's scary though is that six of those losses have come against teams with losing records.
They were a team that was making the fourth seed look more beneficial than the third seed. Now it's starting to look like that's still true, but because the third seed has to play Philadelphia. Maybe the second seed won't have such a tough time after all.
Not: New Orleans Hornets
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The Hornets are not playing well. They're scoring less and giving up more points since the break. Their record is 7-6. Their efficiency differential is -2.7, and their scoring differential is 1.2. New Orleans is going the wrong way at the wrong time.
With the teams at the bottom of the west fighting so hard for playoff positioning it may be the Hornets who are at home during the playoffs if they don't pull things together now—not soon—now.
The Cal Landry trade was supposed to help them. He's played decently, but they aren't winning. It's not too late, but they have to dig in and stop the slide.
Not: Miami Heat
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When the Heat started off the season playing .500 ball the questions were raised and skeptics were told by those in the "know" (present company included) that it was just a matter of coming together as a team and that things would get better. For a while they did.
The problem is that now we're at the end of the season and the Heat have gone 7-7 since the break. Things seem to be ending where they started. Yet where still hearing that it's just a matter of time. Time is running out.
The things that made the Heat look like contenders earlier, their high scoring margin in games they won and their high efficiency differential have faded with their record. They're efficiency is only at a +12.4 and their margin of victory is only 4.2. Those rank 10th and ninth in the NBA respectively, good but not great numbers, certainly not elite.
The Heat have two winning teams left on their schedule, the Celtics and the 76ers, so it's not impossible that they'll run the table, or only drop one more for the rest of the season. They will be hyped as a team that is "getting it together" at the right time. Just remember who they're beating.
Warm: Memphis Grizzlies
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Yes, I know that Miami just put a beat down on Memphis and I know that I have Memphis over Miami. If you're wondering why is that I'm not ranking the teams based on how they did in their last game, but since the All-Star Break.
The Griz are 8-6 since then and have an efficiency differential of 14.0, both of which are better than the. Heat. Memphis margin of victory is a bit smaller though at only 2.8. It's not a decisive difference, but let me put it this way. It's the Heat and the Grizzlies.
That you can make an argument that Memphis has outplayed the Heat since the break says what you need to know. The Grizzlies are exceeding expectations (and getting remarkably little notice for it) and Miami is falling short.
The Griz have beaten the Mavs, the Spurs and the Thunder, since the break. They beat the Lakers a couple of times this year as well. They look to take on the East's best this week after not faring as well against the Heat. They play Boston and Chicago between now and Friday. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up.
Whether they have enough to pull off an upset in the playoffs is a bit doubtful, but they could make a home seed work harder than they want to.
Warm: San Antonio Spurs
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It's a good thing that the Spurs have a cushion on that first seed because they may need to use it. Even before Duncan's injury there were some issues developing with the team.
Their efficiency differential since the break is only 4.1. Their scoring differential is 3.2. Yes, their record is 11-4, which is still pretty good, but they aren't winning like they were. They've gotten destroyed by Maimi and the Lakers. They lost to the Nuggets last night. Duncan is out for a while.
Simply speaking, for a team that was playing so well through most of the season San Antonio is looking like a team in trouble. Considering how Houston has been playing lately there could be an upset of Golden State sized proportions brewing up right now.
San Antonio is a team with championship experience though, and could right itself before the postseason starts, or when the postseason starts. Still, I don't think Popovich is happy with the things are trending right now.
Warm: Boston Celitcs
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Boston is in much the same boat as San Antonio. Their record since the break is 10-6. That's not as good as what Boston wants, but it's somewhat better than how the team has played. They've only outscored their opponents by an average of 3.9 points and their efficiency differential is 12.5.
Compare that to a 6.8 margin and 21.2 differential before the break and you see that the Celtics have taken a step back. Some of that is doubtless the fact they have been working five new players into the rotation. Their key components are the same but that doesn't mean they aren't affected.
If you don't believe me take a look at Rajon Rondo's post break splits. He's down 2.7 dimes, and his already anemic scoring is down 2.6. That's a big loss of production from the pilot of the ship. Rondo needs to adjust to all this new personnel and that takes time. There's discussion of whether Rondo's injured or not. I think it's a matter of learning each other.
That's been the secret of the Celtics success. They play so well together, now that "together" is a new thing. So many changed working parts effects things. The question is whether they can figure each other out in time for the playoffs. That has to be the more important thing to Boston than the first seed right now.
Heating Up: Portland Trailblazers
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If there were an award for the team buzz-deserved to buzz-received ration, Portland would be the clear winner (or loser?). My meaning, Portland deserves a lot more buzz than they've gotten, and right now they are close to catching fire.
They are 9-6 since the break, have a 10.6 differential and 5.7 scoring differential. Last night's destruction though was the sign this team is getting things together. When you take a step back and look at the roster it's pretty darned deep.
Andre Miller, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby, Gerald Wallace, Brandon Roy, Nicholas Batum, and Wes Matthews. That's an eight man rotation of starting quality players. On my list, the Blazers are near the top of teams who can upset a team in the first round.
Heating Up: Philadelphia 76ers
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Philadelphia has been turning things on for a while but only have been getting the recognition of late. They've gone 9-5 since the break, outscoring their opponents by 3.7 and carrying an efficiency differential of 12.7.
Looking ahead to the playoffs there's the intriguing matchup with Miami. Now the Heat won their first two encounters by 10 and nine respectively. That was before the 76ers turned it up though. We get a preview of the potential first round series on Friday night.
Heating Up: Orlando Magic
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The Magic are 10-5 since the break. Their efficiency differential is 14.4, fourth best in the league, since the break. They've outscored their opponents by 4.6 points. They've gone 3-3 against winning teams. Against Eastern Conference teams they might meet up with in the playoffs they're 0-2.
They're winning for the most part but they haven't been overwhelming. The reason I have them as heating up and not as warm though, is Dwight Howard, who has been ballistic since the break, scoring 24 points and grabbing 16 boards a game.
Is Dwight Howard getting short changed in the MVP discussion? It's hard to say.
Howard is the most dominant defensive player in the league, and he's scoring 23 a game, a career high. On the other hand, the Magic aren't as good as the Bulls.
To me though, there's one sort of decisive thing in the argument, a "tie-breaker" if you will. If the game is on the line you want the ball in Rose's hands, and you don't want it in Howard's. Literally, if the game is on the line you actually want to keep the ball away from Howard because his free throw shooting is so horrendous. That's my thought on it. Howard's a good choice, but not the best choice.
Hot: Dallas Mavericks
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The Mavericks are actually playing better than their record suggests since the break. Their record is only 9-5 but their efficiency differential is 19.9, second best in the NBA since the break. Their scoring margin is seven, which is fifth best in the league.
Dallas is a team which I don't think gets enough credit for it's depth. In efficiency differential the bench is 11.9 on the season, which makes them the best bench in the NBA. Caron Butler is confident he'll be back for the playoffs, which will strengthen both the starting lineup and the bench.
There is a big cloud over Dallas because of a constant year-in, year-out tendency to underachieve come playoff time.
Only four players in the history of the NBA—John Stockton, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Reggie Miller—have more win shares without a ring. Will Dirk retire as they did or will he get a ring? How about this year?
Hot: Houston Rockets
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Before you get apoplectic on me, settle down. I'm not saying that Houston is better than Boston or San Antonio. I'm saying that since the break they've been playing better than them. I'm saying it because it's true.
The Rockets are 11-3 since the break, the third best record in the NBA. They have the sixth best differential at 13.7. They are outscoring their opponents by nearly seven points.They've had two different players with triple-doubles this week. They're a team that is figuring it out and coming together at the right time.
The question is, can they move up into that eighth spot? It's possible that both they and Memphis could be in and the Hornets, who started off the season looking like contenders could miss the playoffs entirely.
Hot: Oklahoma City Thunder
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Is it just me or does it seem like 80 percent of the Kendrick Perkins trade discussion has been around Boston not having him. How about giving some attention to the fact that the Thunder do have him?
Want to know why that's important? How about the fact that the Thunder are giving up 6.5 points fewer than they were before the break?
Oklahoma has the offense. For them it has always been a question of the defense. It's not just his actual defense Perkins is bringing either. He's bringing defensive attitude and leadership. The team is playing with defensive pride now, which isn't something I've seen from them before.
There's been a drastic improvement in their defensive rating. Once mired in the 20s in the rankings, they've climbed up 15th and on the season, they are just a smidgen off of average. Adding defense is paying dividends. Their margin since the break is 7.3 and they have the third best efficiency differential at 19.0. Do not be surprised if the Thunder make it to the conference finals (or deeper?) this year.
On Fire: Denver Nuggets
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A couple of months ago I wrote an article saying that Carmelo Anthony should stay in Denver and do the "right thing." One thing that annoys me about some writers is that they take a position on something and when it turns out they were wrong, they never admit it.
So let me go on record now, I was wrong. I wasn't slightly wrong. I wasn't really wrong.I was severely wrong
I was as wrong as I've ever been about any basketball related discussion I've ever had in my entire life. If you look up wrong in the dictionary, there's a link to my article.
Denver has been playing so well they've worked themselves into the second spot in Hollinger's power rankings. Someone in Denver needs to write a song, "No More Sticky Hands." I would like to postulate something that no one has the nerve to say. Maybe Carmelo hurts his teams. It's not just the new teammates that are making Denver look better, they looked like world beaters before they came.
Not having 'Melo stand around in isolation and then figure out how he's going to shoot has been liberating to the rest of the team. Their efficiency differential is 15.1. They are outscoring their opponents by a dozen points, and they are 11-4. Let's be real, the Denver Nuggets are a much better team now than they were then.
Part of the spin on this cracks me up. I mean literally, I laugh out loud (not lol but actually laugh, out loud) when people make this "well in the long run" spin on the argument. Denver is clearly set up better with both draft picks as a result of the trade, and they have five million more in cap space. So how exactly does the long run favor New York?
Denver was in an impossible bargaining situation and absolutely worked the Knicks. They got better in the short run and will get even better in the long run.
Super Nova Hot: Los Angeles Lakers
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Just on record the Lakers are blistering hot since the All-Star break. They've turned it on. They've flipped the switch. Andrew Bynum has filled up the middle and brought defense and rebounding to the team. Ron Artest is with it again and kissing his guns. The Lakers are playing like champions.
Their margin of victory is up though from 5.9 to 8.6. The Lakers are playing much better than they were, and their defense is playing like a championship level defense, which is probably the most crucial thing.
Then again their efficiency differential is 12.3, down slightly from 13.1 before the break.Their record might be dismissed by the fact that their differential is down. Not quite so fast though on that. In all 10 of the 14 teams they've played since the break have winning records, which makes the fact that their differential is almost what it was remarkable. It's the differential, not the record which is the anomaly.
The Lakers are absolutely beasting it right now and look ready to repeat three-peat for Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher.
Super Nova Hot: Chicago Bulls
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I know that some people are going to come out with "homerism" accusations on this. Let me say though that not too long ago the Lakers were first in the Hollinger rankings, and the Bulls were second. Now the Bulls are first, and they are way in first.
If you want to really understand how well Chicago's playing consider this. The gap between them and Denver/Los Angeles who are tied for second in Hollingers rankings, is greater than the difference between the second spot and ninth. In other words, Chicago is just playing on another level.
The way they've been playing since the break should be illegal.
Their record is "only" 13-3 so it's worse than the Lakers. However they've been absolutely thumping teams. Their Margin of victory is 12.4 points per game since the break.They have the second best record and lead the league in both margin and diferential by huge margins.
In March they've been outscoring teams 99.2 to 85.6. Their offensive rating has been 115.2 and their defensive rating has been 99.2. That's just absolute destruction.
And it's not like Chicago has only been playing pushovers either. They've played eight games against winning teams, and gone 7-1 in those games with an average margin of victory of 11 points.
