NBA Playoff Predictions: How Would Top Teams Fare Without Their Star Players?
Kobe Bryant nearly went down for a long time when he rolled his ankle in the Los Angeles Lakers' 96-91 win over the Dallas Mavericks last Saturday, and every Lakers fan in the world cringed as they saw him rolling around in pain on the ground.
He went down, but he came back in later in the game, and ended up with 16 points, but it made every basketball fan in America wonder what would happen to their team if their superstar went down with an injury at the worst possible time.
Just for fun, imagine if Kobe Bryant were to suddenly come up hobbling at the beginning of the playoffs, or if LeBron James or Dwyane Wade were to break a finger or strain a hammy?
How would their respective teams fare without their star players in the lineup? Could they survive a first-round series? Could they go even farther, or would they even be able to muster a fight?
It's a difficult thing to put an exact number on how many games a team could win without their star player, and it's even more difficult to think of how they would do in the playoffs without their best players.
So, here I went on to ponder the top eight teams in the league would react to an injury that took out their best player for the playoffs.
I stopped at the top eight because I don't really think there is any team that could face a top eight team with their most important player missing and make it a series, let alone win it, save for maybe the Knicks, and that would be a long shot.
8. Orlando Magic: Dwight Howard Suffers Knee Injury
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Of all the possible injuries in the NBA, this would be the most devastating of them.
Dwight Howard is the last thing keeping the Orlando Magic from becoming the Phoenix Suns without Steve Nash.
Without Howard, the only players on that team that could muster any sort of defensive presence would be Jameer Nelson or Jason Richardson, who have both shown they can play defense if they actually try.
Orlando is a good defensive team, but Howard is the glue that holds them together; without him they are just a bunch of guys.
To replace Howard, Orlando would have to use a mix of Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Earl Clark to play down low, since they traded away Marcin Gortat in December.
Their offense would deteriorate into a three-point and jump-shot shooting extravaganza, with nearly no low-post game.
In other words, they would have to be super-hot shooters for three games to win a series against what looks to be shaping up as the Atlanta Hawks.
So I'm guessing Magic fans would sooner see Eddy Curry starting at point guard for them in the playoffs than to lose Howard to an injury.
Best Case Scenario Without Howard: Win two games against the Hawks, first round elimination.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant Suffers Ankle Injury
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Orlando was quite easy to judge when it comes to what would happen to their team if their star player were to suffer an injury, but Oklahoma City is just a bit harder.
If they were to lose Durant, Oklahoma City would lose the league's leading scorer, and their second-best rebounder.
On the surface, it seems as if the Thunder would be lost without Durant, but this year they are 3-1 without their fearless leader, with wins over Boston, Milwaukee and Toronto.
Also, when taking into account the fact that Kevin Durant is featured in 13 of their 14 most-used lineups (the only one he isn't included in is Durant replaced with Jeff Green, who is now on the Boston Celtics), so they would be losing a huge part of their team.
The most important thing to take into account, however, is the improvement of both Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka this season.
I do think there is a slim chance that it could end up being the coming-out party for those two, forcing Westbrook into the top three point guard conversation and making Ibaka a legitimate NBA big man.
Best Case Scenario Without Durant: Win a thriller against Denver in five games, quickly get throttled in the second round by the Spurs.
6. Miami Heat: Chris Bosh Hurts His Mile-Long Neck
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Wait a second? Did I just refer to Chris Bosh as Miami's star player? Surely I'm kidding.
Well, while I don't think Bosh is their best player, I do think that an injury to him would be the most devastating to the chances of the Heat.
We have seen that whenever LeBron James and Bosh or Dwyane Wade and Bosh are the featured players on the floor together, things go smoothly, but when Wade and James are forced to run an offense together, things get iffy.
They have constantly tried not to step on each others' toes, leading to alternating points in the game in which the ball control is completely dominated by one superstar, while the other stands off to the side and waits for a pass, if it is coming or not.
Their offense tends to become stagnant, and their team suffers as a result.
Best Case Scenario Without Bosh: Miami squeezes by Philadelphia in five games, but get humiliated by the Celtics. Paul Pierce tweets like crazy.
5. Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki Suffers Knee Injury
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Without the most consistent German ever to play the game of basketball (sorry, Detlef Schrempf), Dallas' chances of doing much in the playoffs would be bleak.
They would lose their leading scorer, a decent defender, a good rebounder, and a guy who stretches even the most flexible defenses to the breaking point.
Dirk Nowitzki is constantly killing defenses, as he is a seven-footer who can drain threes and shoot 90 percent from the free-throw line. Just how do you guard that?
Without that, they would have to alter their game plan severely, which would include running the offense more through their smaller players; creating more movement, which would lean heavily on players like Jason Terry and JJ Barea slashing to the basket; reversing the ball out for a three; or dishing across to Tyson Chandler to dunk it home.
This would include much more movement, but would probably be easier to defend, as there would be fewer outside shooters on the floor.
It would also have Shawn Marion and DeShawn Stevenson playing out of position. On top of all this, the Mavericks went 2-7 without Dirk when he was injured earlier in the season.
Best Case Scenario Without Nowitzki: Dallas has a first-round matchup (as of right now) with a scary Portland team, which could conceivably beat them with Nowitzki, so the best they could do is squeak out a five-game series against them and lose to the Lakers in the second round.
4. LA Lakers: Kobe Bryant Goes into a Coma
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Seriously, I think the only thing short of death that would keep Kobe off the court this postseason would be a coma, and even then he might ask to practice with the team to see how it would work out. The man seems determined to win yet again.
Without Kobe, the Lakers would be have to either have Slammin' Shannon Brown fill in the starting role, play big with Matt Barnes sliding down from the three-spot, or play teeny-tiny with Steve Blake filling in.
Either way, it seems that the Lakers do have a few options, none of which are nearly as good as Bryant, but none of which are exceptionally terrible.
The worst thing that would come of Bryant falling out of the line-up would be the probability of Luke Walton playing in a playoff game. That alone should freak some people out.
Los Angeles would still have a good inside-outside game with their slew of seven-footers and good shooters, so their offense wouldn't be altered as much, although it would be severely less Bryant-dominated.
They would live in fear of foul-trouble from their big men, as their offense would run through the post more, and would need someone else to take the clutch shots (although that might not be a bad thing, as Bryant hasn't been terrific in the clutch).
Best Case Scenario Without Bryant: Lakers survive a scare from New Orleans, but fall in the second round to Dallas. Phil Jackson retires after his only unsuccessful attempt at a three-peat.
3. Boston Celtics: Paul Pierce Injures Knee
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You could make the argument that Rajon Rondo or Kevin Garnett is the most important player on Boston, or even Big Baby now that they traded Kendrick Perkins, but Paul Pierce is the unquestioned leader of this team.
I truly believe that this team's success hinges on Pierce's leadership this season, as their most important players are getting older, with the hope that Pierce can take them to the promised land yet again.
Without Pierce, they lose that, and with any luck, Garnett and Rondo can pick up the emotional slack, and they lose their leading scorer and an excellent defender.
Jeff Green would have to step in for Paul Pierce, which is convenient, as he is a good player, but inconvenient in that he is young, unproven and a shoddy defender compared to Pierce.
Still, they seem to have most of what Pierce does covered, all they have left is for someone to tweet about the Heat and get booed at three-point competitions in LA.
Best Case Scenario Without Pierce: The Celtics struggle with the Knicks, but ultimately their defense prevails, they take Miami to the brink in round two, but just can't pull it off without Pierce's defense.
2. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose Rolls His Ankle
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The Bulls have dealt with injuries all year long, and if there has been one constant, it has been the leadership and consistency, both emotionally and basketballily (not a word, but it works here) of Derrick Rose.
Without Rose, the Bulls would be a ship without a captain, a newspaper without an editor, they would be many metaphors for things without a leader is what I'm getting at here.
They would have the ability to make up for some of the production that Rose creates, but they wouldn't have the depth to play continually at a high level that is required in the playoffs.
Rose would be replaced by CJ Watson, who is a decent point guard in his own regard, but given a starter's minutes, he would be churning out 13 points and 6 assists at best.
Watson is, however, still a very capable defender, so they may not lose much on the defensive end of the floor.
Best Case Scenario Without Rose: Chicago is able to beat whoever ends up No. 8 in the east, because it will be a mediocre team at best, but can't beat the Magic or Hawks in the second round, whoever it should end up being.
1. San Antonio Spurs: Manu Ginobili Flops, Hits Head, Suffers Concussion
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With the production of Tim Duncan slowly waning, Manu Ginobili has taken over as the go-to guy on the Spurs, and he has handled this new position terrifically.
The biggest problem that would come of losing Ginobili would be that the Spurs would lose their best perimeter defender, and leading scorer.
However, as common sense would tell you, Tim Duncan still has to have something left in the tank, and I am sure that he and Gregg Popovich have planned to keep as much of it bottled up until the playoffs as possible.
I sincerely believe that Duncan can do whatever is asked of him in order for his team to win, whether it be going for 15 points and 10 rebounds a night while playing the same stellar defense as usual, or exploding for something closer to a 24 and 15 or 26 and 17.
Duncan can still do it.
Besides that, Ginobili's replacement, George Hill, is no slouch himself, and can score and handle the basketball in his own right.
They would miss Ginobili, but they could make up for what he does with just a few adjustments.
Best Case Scenario Without Ginobili: Hill fills in nicely, they stride past Memphis/Utah/Houston in the first round, pull off an improbable seven-game win over Oklahoma City or Denver, and fight tooth-and-nail in the Western Conference Finals with the Lakers, only to fall just a bit short.
