College Football: 12 Teams That Will Take a Major Step Backward in 2011
Every season of college football brings change; some of it is expected, while other times it is shocking.
These changes, good or bad, might be related to or caused by personnel, coaching, NCAA investigations, injuries or just plain momentum—yes, a shift in good old lady luck.
Among these changes are the members of the short list of “who’s who” in major college football. These are the power players, the teams that will vie for a division or conference championship and then possibly a BCS (or upper tier) bowl bid.
Again, some major shifts in this list, from year to year, are expected while others are shocking.
Case in point: coming into last season, not many folks saw Georgia Tech, Pitt and especially Texas taking the downward spiral that actually played out.
So, which teams will go backward rather than forward in 2011?
The following slideshow attempts to identify 12 teams that will take a step down this coming season.
Some will be fairly obvious with loses to graduation, the NFL draft, etc., while others might mildly surprise or even shock our great college football nation.
Auburn
1 of 12
No one should be surprised to see Auburn on this list.
The Tigers will return only four starters to each side of the ball and their losses include QB Cam Newton, WR Darvin Adams, most of the offensive line and a long list of great defenders.
Auburn went undefeated, won the SEC West, captured an SEC crown and won the BCS national title in 2010; unless the Tigers can repeat that amazing feat, they will certainly be forced to take a step backward (with the crystal football firmly in their grasp) in 2011.
Michigan State
2 of 12
Despite being overlooked for a BCS bid and getting pounded by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, Sparty’s 11-2 run in 2010 was magical.
The Spartans return seven offensive and six defensive starters from their 2010 squad, including QB Kirk Cousins, but without much of their linebacker corps.
Though Michigan State finished last season ranked No. 14 in the AP poll and ESPN has them at No. 16 in its early Top 25, you have to wonder if the Spartans can repeat the magic in 2011.
The major reason for doubt may be its schedule, which sets up much differently than it did in 2010 when the Spartans didn’t play outside of their home state until mid-October and didn’t have to face Ohio State at all.
In 2011 Michigan State will make an early trip to South Bend, play the Buckeyes in Columbus, play the Cornhuskers in Lincoln and also make road trips to face Iowa and Northwestern (who won’t go away easily).
The Spartans will be talented, but can they pull out the close games and manage the stunning comebacks they did last season, this time on the road?
Ohio State
3 of 12
Ohio State finished 2010 at 12-1 and was ranked No. 5 in the final AP poll, and despite the trouble brewing in Columbus the Buckeyes continue to grace the preseason Top 10 for 2011.
Aside from the Jim Tressel affair, which may indeed substantially affect the Buckeyes in 2011, there seem at least a couple of other valid reasons to argue that Ohio State may not finish in the Top 10 and may not receive a BCS bid for the first time since 2005.
Though Terrell Pryor and many of the skill players on offense return (some after a five-game suspension), overall the Buckeyes return only four starters on each side of the ball.
Defensively, OSU loses two starting linemen, two starting linebackers and four starting defensive backs. These are huge hits to a defense that ranked No. 5 in scoring in 2010 after allowing a measly 14.3 points per game.
Ohio State has a deep pool of talent and can reload, but can they do it quickly and effectively enough to win every game on their schedule? Again, it can only afford one loss if it wants another BCS bid.
As much as the loss of the “Ohio State Five” for the first five games of the 2011 season might be underplayed due to the “it’s the easiest part of the schedule” argument, this is simply a loss that cannot be taken lightly.
These are five starters, four of whom will probably land jobs in the NFL. The Buckeyes can more than likely manage wins over Akron and Toledo (both at home), but what about a road trip to Miami (of Florida, not Ohio) in Week 3 and then visits from a Colorado team that should be greatly improved and a top-20 Michigan State team during Weeks 4 and 5?
Again, I would emphasize that to NOT take a step backward the Buckeyes must manage an 11-win season.
Not impossible, but certainly not a “sure thing.”
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TCU
4 of 12
The Horned Frogs are another team, like defending champions Auburn, that shouldn’t be a surprise on this particular list.
Going 13-0, beating Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finishing the season ranked No. 2 in the AP will be hard to repeat, especially with only five starters returning on each side of the ball.
Gone are QB Andy Dalton, his prime targets, key members of both the offensive and defensive line and four starting members of the secondary.
The Horned Frogs will more than likely reload and field a good team, but unless they can manage another undefeated season (which means regular-season wins over Air Force, BYU and Boise State) and a bowl victory, a step backward isn’t hard to understand.
Nevada
5 of 12
Very quietly (with the exception of the late-season blockbuster overtime victory over Boise State) the Wolf Pack finished 2010 with a 13-1 record and a lofty No. 11 ranking in the final AP poll.
This is a team that ranked No. 8 in scoring offense and No. 31 in scoring defense nationally.
Nevada returns only six offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011 after key losses that include QB Colin Kaepernick, leading rusher Vai Taua, second-leading receiver in TE Virgil Green and three members of the defensive front.
Coming out of 2011 with one loss or less will be further complicated with a non-conference slate that includes a trip to Eugene to play Oregon, a trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech and finally a trip to the blue turf of Boise State.
Ouch.
Oklahoma State
6 of 12
The Cowboys entered 2010 unranked, and many considered last season to be a rebuilding year for a team that was completely retooling after a solid 9-4 finish in 2009.
The defense did indeed struggle but what shocked the nation was an offense, under first-year coordinator Dana Holgorsen, absolutely exploded, ultimately hurling the Cowboys up the rankings into uncharted territory.
Oklahoma State finished 2010 with an 11-2 record and ranked No. 13 in the AP poll. The Cowboys' only two losses were barnburner home defeats to Nebraska and Oklahoma by a total margin of 16 points in two games that racked up an insane 180 total points.
Coming into 2011, Oklahoma State is ranked among the preseason Top 10. Although the defense still has lots of question marks (only six starters return from a unit that ranked No. 61 in scoring), everyone is rightly expecting the “O” to simply go crazy again.
Though it seems completely logical that the Cowboys will be a team to fear in 2011, two big questions (besides those at defense) loom.
First, how much will the loss of Kendall Hunter affect the offensive production? Hunter ran for a team-high 1,548 yards and scored 16 touchdowns in 2010.
Second, how much will the loss of OC Dan Holgorsen (now the OC and head coach-in-waiting at West Virginia) affect the killer Cowboy offense in 2011?
Simply put, was it Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and company who were more responsible for transforming an Oklahoma State offense that ranked No. 56 in scoring in 2009 (28.4 points per game) to an offense that ranked No. 3 in scoring in 2010 (44.2 points per game) or was it OC Dana Holgorsen?
We’ll find out in September.
Virginia Tech
7 of 12
After losing the first two games of the 2010 season (one memorably to FCS opponent James Madison) the Hokies reeled off 11 consecutive victories on their way to becoming ACC Champions and earning a bid to the BCS Orange Bowl.
Virginia Tech returns six offensive and seven defensive starters to the squad that finished the season ranked No. 16 in the AP poll but will suffer serious losses offensively.
Though QB Tyrod Taylor will be missed as the chief passer in Blacksburg let’s not forget that the Hokies main gig was running the ball.
Virginia Tech ranked No. 21 in scoring offense in 2010 (33.9 points per game) but this was done mostly on the strength of a running game that ranked No. 23 nationally rather than a passing game that ranked No. 72 overall.
Not only did Taylor throw for 2743 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2010 he was also the Hokies second leading rusher with 659 yards and five touchdowns.
Gone also, to the NFL, are a pair of tailbacks (Darren Evans and Ryan Williams) who combined with Taylor accounted for a whopping 72 percent of the Hokies total rushing production.
The defense should be stingy, as always, but, will that be enough to carry Virginia Tech back to the top of the ACC and to another BCS bowl bid?
Tulsa
8 of 12
Tulsa is another team that very quietly experience great success in 2010. The Golden Hurricane managed a 10-3 mark, upended Hawaii 62-35 in the Hawaii Bowl and was ranked No. 24 in the final AP Poll (their first ranking since 1991).
The good news for Tulsa is that they return 10 offensive and nine defensive starters from their solid 2010 offering.
The bad news is head coach Todd Graham (36-17 over four season at Tulsa) has left for the head job at Pitt leaving Tulsa alumnus Bill Blankenship at the helm of Golden Hurricane football.
Regardless, what might force Tulsa back out of the Top 25 is their 2011 schedule which reads like something out of a Stephen King novel.
The Golden Hurricane open the season on the road in Norman vs. preseason No. 1 Oklahoma then head south to visit Tulane before returning home to face preseason Top 10 Oklahoma State.
The wheel of fun doesn’t stop there for once the Cowboys ride out of town Tulsa will board a plane for . ... Wait for it . . . Boise Idaho to face the Broncos on their sweet blue turf.
And all that before the conference schedule even gets underway.
At the end of the day you have got to give the Golden Hurricane a bunch of credit for playing a scary non-conference schedule.
Could they be a giant killer? Absolutely, but, look for them to do it offensively where they ranked No. 6 in scoring in 2010 versus a No. 85 ranking in scoring “D”.
UCF
9 of 12
Another team that experienced unparalleled success in 2010 was the Golden Knights. UCF captured the Conference USA title, won their first ever bowl game (over Georgia in the Liberty Bowl) on their way to an 11-3 finish and No. 21 AP ranking.
The Knights return seven offensive starters and only four on defense which is exactly where the main area of concern lays going into 2011.
Losses defensively include three starting members of the line, three starting linebackers and three starting members of the secondary.
These deficits may be a killer to team that ranked No. 8 overall in scoring defense (allowing a mere 17.1 points per game in 2010).
Though much of the offense returns (minus a group of receivers) can this make up for some very serious hits to a great defensive unit?
Iowa
10 of 12
Though Iowa certainly did not repeat the magic in 2010 (8-5) that they produced in 2009 (11-2 and an Orange Bowl victory) the Hawkeyes won’t be expected to be among the top teams in the country in 2011.
Kirk Ferentz will be rebuilding in 2011 with only five starters returning to each side of the ball. Losses include QB Ricky Stanzi, leading rusher Adam Robinson, most of the defensive front seven and SS Tyler Sash from the secondary.
Add to this an always tricky Big 10 schedule (with the new addition of a season finale trip to Lincoln to face Nebraska) and the Hawkeyes may have to take a step down before they come back up.
Texas Tech
11 of 12
Though it may be hard for even the most realistic Texas Tech fan to comprehend, 2011 may be worse than 2010 for the Red Raiders.
Tech struggled (literally) to an 8-5 finish ranking a respectable (though gut wrenching) No. 23 in scoring offense and a totally horrendous No. 93 in scoring defense.
The Red Raiders should gain at least some stability in Tommy Tuberville’s second year in Lubbock but even if the dust begins to settle somewhat from a coaching standpoint the 2011 edition of Texas Tech football will be young and wildly inexperienced.
Though Tech returns seven offensive and eight defensive starters gone are many of the team leaders including QB Taylor Potts, RB Baron Batch, WR Detron Lewis, WR Lyle Leong, DT Colby Whitlock, DE Brian Duncan and MLB Bront Bird.
To further alarm Red Raider fans is the defection of both Kicker Matt Williams and Punter Jonathan Lacour. Perhaps this will at least cut down on that surprise on side kick off nonsense.
The non-conference schedule might seem harmless at first glance but Tech fans shouldn’t discount a September 24 visit from Nevada who went 13-1 in 2010 and finished ranked No. 11.
After that Tech will have to face a long list of Big 12 foes, many who (like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) will be ranked in the preseason Top 10.
Texas Tech may struggle, again, to become bowl eligible in 2011 but can look forward to clearer skies and better digestion in 2012.
Stanford
12 of 12
Only one ugly loss to Oregon (really it was only the second half) stood between Stanford and a shot at the big enchilada in 2010.
Regardless, finishing 12-1, ranked No. 4 in the final AP poll and dismantling Virginia Tech 40-12 in the Orange Bowl wasn’t necessarily a disappointing finish to a stellar 2010 campaign.
The 2011 Stanford squad will be minus Coach Jim Harbaugh, the top two wide receivers, three starting offensive linemen, two defensive lineman, two linebackers and three members of the secondary.
Overall, the Cardinal returns five offensive and six defensive starters which include QB Andrew Luck, top rusher Stepfan Taylor and the balance of an improving secondary.
But, is this enough firepower to propel Stanford to similar heights in 2011?
ESPN’s early preseason seems confident having Stanford at a lofty No. 7 ranking and the Hilton Las Vegas gives the Cardinal 20/1 odds to win it all (not just 11 games).
Are the expert’s right, or does the little sneaking suspicion that Stanford has too much to overcome in 2011 to repeat their tremendous run from 2010 hold any water?
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