2011 March Madness: Last-Minute Predictions From Whatifsports.com

Regardless of the forecast, the annual WhatIfSports March Madness Bracket Preview piece conjures a common cry of, "Are you idiots CRAZY?!?!" from our loyal readers. Granted, some of this antipathy arouses from perceived slights to a person's alma mater, and in such cases individuals lack the rational to be reasoned with. But we believe the majority of protests derive from sane and sound sports fans who simply want to decipher how the results came to pass.

Know that your disagreements are not falling on deaf ears. To quote anthropologist Clifford Geertz, "I don't feel that an atmosphere of debate and total disagreement and argument is such a bad thing. It makes for a vital and alive field."

Despite this site's past precision and accuracy, there are instances where I harbor self-reservations regarding results stemming from the simulation engine, including the NCAA tournament predictions. This conviction captures an enthralling aspect of March Madness: questioning, contesting and combating another's bracket prophecies against one's own.

Bearing this sentiment in mind, here are my personal protests against the clairvoyance of the computers:

East Region

North Carolina looked anything but imposing during the ACC tournament, needing a last-second shot from Tyler Zeller to top Miami and overtime to dispose of Clemson. On the other end of that spectrum lie the Washington Huskies, who are dancing thanks to the late-game heroics of guard Isaiah Thomas. Yet thinking that championship game bravado will ignite Lorenzo Romar's squad into Sweet Sixteen attainment is asinine. Since handing Kendall Marshall the keys to Carolina's offense in mid-January, the Tar Heels have returned to their up-tempo attack that delivered two national championships to Chapel Hill under the Roy Williams regime. After an apathetic start, touted freshman Harrison Barnes is fulfilling preseason hype, illustrated by the forward's 40-point outing against Clemson in the ACC semifinals. Barnes, along with Zeller and fellow frosh phenom John Henson, form a frontline that leads the NCAA with 42.5 rebounds per game. In short, don't expect the Heels to be heading home after the opening weekend. 
Other Disputes: Marquette over Xavier, Washington over Syracuse, Villanova over George Mason. 
Upset Alert: Kentucky over Ohio State.

West Region

Does anyone truly trust the Aztecs? The San Diego State schedule lacks a litmus test, with the closest competition coming in the form of BYU, a team the Aztecs lost to on both occasions during the regular season. San Diego State overthrew the Cougars in the Mountain West title game, although the matchup comes with an asterisk as BYU was without boarder Brandon Davies. Forward Kawhi Leonard (15.4 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the real deal, and Malcolm Thomas and D.J. Gay spearhead a solid supporting cast for San Diego State. However, the trio of Connecticut/Cincinnati/Missouri is more than capable of closing the books on the Aztecs season in the Sweet Sixteen, and don't be surprised if Penn State or Temple take down San Diego State over the weekend. 
Other Disputes: Arizona over Memphis. 
Upset Alert: Memphis over Texas.

Southeast Region

This region elicited my biggest beef with the bracket. Gonzaga is battled-tested thanks to a brutal non-conference schedule, but the Johnnies rock a resume highlighted with W's over Duke, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Connecticut that should correlate to a Red Storm reign over the Bulldogs. Utah State, with just three loses on the season, should pose as a formidable foe to Kansas State. Unfortunately, the simulation engines can't appraise the awesomeness of Jacob Pullen's facial hair, a factor that undoubtedly equated to a win for the Aggies. Pittsburgh's backcourt of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker is unparalleled in terms of vision and scoring, yet the Panthers' play away from home leaves much to be desired, an ingredient that's integral to postseason success.

Down and Out

Even the Jimmer can't overcome the loss of Davies.

But the prediction that provokes the most puzzlement is BYU. Our engine DOES account for the absence of Davies, who averaged 11.1 points and 6.2 rebounds for the Cougars, but seems to calculate the contributions of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery to negate the void in the post. Clearly this is not the case, as the Cougars, sans Davies, had their clocks cleaned by New Mexico and San Diego State. Even with their beleaguered forward, penciling BYU to the Elite Eight seems like a preposterous proposition. Doubting the Jimmer might be considered blasphemy by the basketball faithful, but the Cougars simply lack the firepower to fight St. John's and Florida. 
Other Disputes: UCLA over Michigan State, Pittsburgh over Wisconsin. 
Upset Alert: Belmont over Wisconsin, Kansas State over Pittsburgh.

Southwest Region

I still haven't bought my ticket for the Ben Hansbrough Bandwagon and remain somewhat skeptical that Chris Wright's return will rejuvenate Georgetown, but for the most part agree with the engine's analysis of the Southwest Region. The Boilermakers seem to be undervalued, as JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore could propel Purdue into Houston, but in that same breath, I wouldn't be stunned if Matt Painter is watching the Sweet Sixteen from his office in West Lafayette. 
Other Disputes: Notre Dame to the Elite Eight. 
Upset Alert: Louisville over Kansas.

Final Four

Picking all No.1 seeds in the Final Four is blase' in my book, but with a relatively weak field in terms of championship contenders, going all-chalk is not out of the question in 2011. With that said, Duke is the team that seems to have all the pistons pumping. The scoring trio of Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and Seth Curry makes the Blue Devils' offensive attack impossible to obstruct, with the Plumlee Brothers diligently executing the dirty work down low. And if projected lottery pick Kyrie Irving can contribute a few minutes in relief, Coach K will claim another championship crown. 
Dark horse Final Four teams: Kansas State, Kentucky, Purdue.