NCAA Tournament: East Region: Kentucky Wildcats Back at the Top

Team to Beat: Top-seed, Ohio State Buckeyes

It has been quite a run up to this point for the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, one that almost nobody saw coming in the fall.

The Buckeyes were picked to finish third in their own conference, behind Michigan State and Purdue, by most analysts and publications. At the time, even that seemed like a friendly prognosis. Their star from last season, Evan Turner, left for the NBA, they were absent a true point guard, had little depth and hopes hinged on the development of some highly rated freshman center.

As it turned out, Ohio State didn’t miss Turner one bit, Aaron Craft was just fine running the point, player versatility squashed any concerns about depth and Jared Sullinger played like the manchild he was touted to be.

Ohio State’s top four players—Sullinger, William Buford, Jon Diebler and David Lighty—are as good as any in the country. What makes them so good is their ability to score from all over the floor. Buford and Lighty are freakishly athletic and strong finishers at the rim, but they also shoot 43 and 39 percent from beyond the arc, respectively.

Diebler is a shooter and a darn good one at that, hitting 51 percent from the floor and just over half of his threes, which is otherworldly considering that’s his bread and butter.

Sullinger is the one that makes it all work. Few teams can handle the wide load with single coverage, thus forcing them to bring help from the perimeter, leaving shooters like Diebler and Buford open. If opponents choose to guard Sullinger straight up, he’ll get his.

Ohio State defends well, protects the ball (averaging just 10 turnovers per game), shoots the lights out and has a dominant post presence.

Its lack of depth and quality wins out of conference (only top 25 win was against Florida) is a concern, but I doubt anyone in the East region is begging to face Thad Matta’s boys.

Bracketbuster (6-16 seed that could wreak havoc): 6-seed, Xavier Musketeers

At first glance, I thought the lower seeds in this region could really make some noise. Upon further review, I’m not crazy about any of them.

Ninth-seeded Villanova has the coach and experience to make a run, but there’s no way it beats Ohio State. Washington has the athletes and the shooters to go deep, but facing North Carolina, which is essentially Washington on steroids, in Charlotte will send the Huskies home real fast.

That leaves Xavier. One of the nation’s more underrated programs over the past decade, and a team of upperclassmen poised to replicate last year’s run to the Sweet 16, which ended with a heartbreaking overtime loss to Kansas State.

The problem is, unless Larry Bird suites up for Indiana State and scorches Syracuse’s zone to the tune of 50 points, the Musketeers run into their worst possible matchup.

If you can’t shoot the three, you’re going to have a really hard time beating the Orange. Xavier shoots 33 percent as a team, with Tu Holloway hitting a team-best 35 percent. That’s a red flag.

Their starting guards, Holloway and Mark Lyons combine to average 6.3 turnovers per game. There’s red flag No. 2.

The Musketeers played one ranked team this season, a Jan. 6 date with in-state rival Cincinnati. They lost by 20 and scored 46 points. That’s the third and final red flag.

So why am I picking Xavier? Because they get Syracuse in the friendly confines of Cleveland. I can see Holloway (averaging 20 points, five rebounds and five assists) being a one-man zone breaker, and Chris Mack, one of the nation’s most underrated head coaches, outdueling Jim Boeheim.

If they can get by the Orange, it will open up a world of possibilities, but I’m skeptical to say the least.

Most Likely to be Upset (1-5 seed sent home in first weekend): 5-seed, West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia defines over-seeded. Missouri finished 23-10 and was given an 11-seed, but the Mountaineers go 20-11 and are rewarded with a five-seed?

Yes they beat Georgetown, Purdue, Notre Dame and Louisville, but they also lost to Minnesota, Miami, Marshall and Marquette, an 11-seed, twice.

West Virginia is horrendous offensively, ranking 149th nationally in points scored (69.5 per game), 228th in field goal percentage (42.7), and it shoots an ice-cold 33 percent from deep. With those numbers it’s amazing that Bob Huggins squeezed 20 wins out of this group.

The Mountaineers are great defensively, and boy do they need to be to have any chance to win. Great defense will win you a lot of games, but Clemson, their first opponent, is one of the nation’s best in that category and is much better offensively.

As is the case in just about every recent NCAA Tournament, the 12-seed knocks off the five.

Best Player: Isaiah Thomas, Washington Huskies

This will surprise many, but it shouldn’t. For those that aren’t aware, Thomas doesn’t just sport the same name as former Detroit Pistons legend Isaiah Thomas, he also carries the same blood lines.

Thomas is the son of one of the toughest point guards in basketball history, and he’s developing the same reputation.

He’s the engine that makes one of the nation’s best offenses go, averaging 16.6 points, six assists and almost four rebounds per game. When Washington needed a bucket to win the Pac-10 Tournament final against Arizona, it was Thomas who stuck the step-back jumper in the eye of his defender as time expired.

Thomas finished the game with 28 points and seven assists, and the Huskies needed every one of them. He’s as important to his team as any player in the tournament.

Teams with outstanding point guards always have a chance to reach great heights in March, which is why it would be foolish to disregard the Huskies.

Best Coach: Roy Williams, North Carolina Tar Heels

Overall record: 640-162 (222-61 at UNC)

NCAA Tournament record: 55-18

Final Fours: Seven

National Championships: Two (2005, 2009- both with UNC)

The Pick: Kentucky over North Carolina

If you believe that the Heavens rule the Earth, and I do, then this is the only pick. The basketball gods will orchestrate the action on the court to ensure that they see the game they want, and that would be the one between two of college basketball’s most storied programs.

Few teams are hotter than the Wildcats and Tar Heels. Kentucky enters the tournament winners of six straight and eight of its last nine games, with the only defeat being a one-point overtime loss to Arkansas. North Carolina is 14-2 since January 16, only losing twice to Duke.

Both are young and loaded with future NBA lottery picks, and questionable ethics aside, both are led by two of the game’s best coaches in John Calipari and Roy Williams.

They played in Chapel Hill on Dec. 4, a 75-73 triumph for the Tar Heels. This time, Kentucky returns the favor, winning by the slimmest of margins.

The similarities are glaring, so what will be the difference? Look no further then the two most important lines on the hardwood—the three-point arc and the foul line. Kentucky shoots almost 40 percent from three and 71 percent from the foul line. North Carolina is pedestrian at both, hitting just 33 percent from deep and 66 percent from the stripe.

Those two lines often decide who wins in basketball. So does point guard play, and in a matchup of two terrific freshman playing well beyond their years, Brandon Knight will one-up Kendall Marshall.

So Kentucky and Calipari hang another Final Four banner in the rafters. I hate asking, but I’m sure everyone at Memphis and Massachusetts will be wondering the same thing—how long until this one gets removed?

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