NCAA Bracket 2011: Why You Should Trust the Selection Committee, Pick Favorites

Everyone always thinks the NCAA Tournament is about the wild upsets.

They're dead wrong.

When filling out your bracket, be sure to not make overreactionary picks. First off, the No. 1 seed wins their first two games 88 percent of the time. In the first round, have your No. 1 and No. 2 seeds all advancing.

Also, be very careful with the No. 14 and No. 13 seeds. It's very rare for those upsets to happen. From all of the three vs 14 and four vs 13 matchups have a minimum of one upset and a maximum of two upsets. Be VERY careful. If you do pick a major upset, have them lose the next game. It is an extremely rare for a 13 or 14 seed win consecutive games. If you're going to pick an upset, pick one that is 10 vs seven or nine vs eight. Those are usually 50-50 choices.

Next, look at where the game is. As crazy as this may sound, this matters! A team that plays within a 50 mile radius from their campus is 26-2! One of the two losses came last year when Butler, playing close to Indianapolis, almost upset Duke in the championship match. Being close to home matters in college basketball. Road teams do very bad in college basketball when they enter an arena where they can be intimidated and pushed around.

Another factor to look at is the number of seniors a team has. Generally a team with a lot of seniors is more experienced and has a better chance of dealing with adversity.

But overall just focus on the top four seeds. Have your No. 1 seeds advance to the 4th round. Here is a glaring stat for you: A higher percentage of No. 1 seeds win their first three games of the tournament than a No. 5 seed winning just one.

It's smart to just go with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Yes, of course it's boring. But generally speaking, there is always one or two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four and they have the best chance to win it all.

So, be smart. Don't go for the perfect bracket. Try to get as many points as possible. Remember that a crazy first round upset is only worth one point. Writing off your No. 1 seeds early can be very detrimental.

One can accumulate plenty of points just by putting in all the No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Once in the Final Four, these No. 1 seeds are favored to win the whole thing because they have the most skill.

Remember that it's a lot more difficult in picking which two, three or four seed is going to advance to the Final Four. You have to correctly predict WHICH two, three or four seed will pull off an upset. If you pick the wrong upset, then it's a double whammy. Not only did you incorrectly pick your upset, but your favorite was upset too. So play it safe and go with as many favorites winning as possible to maximize your points and obtain bragging rights.