March Madness Bracket 2011: 5 Steps To Winning Your NCAA Pool This Year

In every bracket pool, there are as many theories on how to pick a winner as there are entrants.  At the end of the day, the secretary who watches no basketball can win just as well as the college basketball junkie that spends every weekend in front of the television monitoring the progress of the mid-major conferences.

The goal is to win the pool, not to place well.  Making safe picks all the way through your bracket is a surefire way to finish in the middle of the pack.  Despite how crazy the results appear from year to year, there are a handful of bracket picking rules that do work on a consistent basis.  Follow these five steps, and you will have a legitimate shot to take home the top spot in your NCAA bracket pool of choice.

1. Pick the Bracket Backwards

The vast majority of pool entrants will pick the bracket forwards, meaning picking all the second round games, then the third round games, and so on.  However, this brings an unnecessary color to your analysis of late-round games. 

For example, someone picking the East Region forward this year may end up with Ohio State and North Carolina in the regional final.  Based on how well the Tar Heels score and defend in the post, the tendency will be to pencil in North Carolina to the Final Four.  However, the likelihood of these two teams actually meeting in the regional final is slim, even for the top two seeds in a region. 

Thus, while it may be far more likely that the Buckeyes come out of the East Region, picking the bracket forward causes many entrants to talk themselves out of the obvious truth.

To combat this tendency, start in the middle of the bracket and pick the national champion first, then work backwards to the second round.  Ignore certain matchup possibilities beyond the third round and focus on the team you believe is most likely to come out of a region, all things considered.  This first tip alone is the best bracket picking advice anyone could ever follow, but continue on if you want to take the next step to real contention.

2. Play the Numbers Game in the Final Four

With rare exception, almost every team that ends up in the Final Four will be a top five seed.  Furthermore, one or two top seeds generally make every year's Final Four.  Although there are truly no great teams this season, the top seed line does include four teams clearly better in quality than every team seeded three or lower.  So pick two of the top seeds (Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Duke) to start the Final Four.

Then the rule of thumb is as follows: adding the seeds of all Final Four competitors should range between six and twelve.  Thus, if you pick two top seeds, a three seed, and a five seed, the total comes to 1+1+3+5=10.  This rule of six and twelve will keep your Final Four varied enough to avoid all top seeds (which only happened once in 2008) but within the realm of reason.

For example, my 2011 bracket includes Ohio State (1) and Kansas (1), which puts the other two top seeds off limits.  Adding San Diego State (2) and Florida (2) makes the total six, which is rather "chalk," but certainly more likely than all four top seeds, historically.

3. Play the Numbers Game in the First Two Rounds

Every season, the first round (now officially titled the second round) generally includes 8-10 upsets total.  Assuming that you picked a top seed to win the entire tournament, the make-or-break rounds are these first two rounds for distancing your picks from the rest of the field. 

Throwing out the true toss-up games in the 7-10 and 8-9 seed games, you should look for three to five other lower seeds to select to differentiate your bracket from everyone else.

Now, don't go too crazy with the lower seeds.  Keep these upset picks contained within the 11-13 seed range, and especially focus on the 11 and 12 seeds. 

Some very dangerous mid-major teams such as Utah State, Belmont, Oakland, Princeton and Gonzaga are sitting in this seed range with winnable games against the mediocre middle of the field.  Keep the upsets to 8-10 and then follow that up with another 4-6 upsets in the second round.  This gives you the best chance for success because you will not pick too many upsets or too few.

4. Location, Location, Location

The NCAA selection committee has focused on trying to place teams in first and second round pods as close to campus as possible.  This focus goes beyond the top four seeds in every region, so there are often teams seeded lower than four playing much closer to home than their higher-seeded competition. 

Some top four seeds always play poorly away from home, and neutral-site games far away from home might as well be road games for these teams.  Therefore, make sure you keep in mind where the first and second round games are played, not just who is playing.

In the 2011 bracket, the selection committee had trouble filling the western host sites such as Tucson and Denver.  Wisconsin and Kansas State may be the favorites headed to Tucson, but Utah State is much closer to home and may have a strong crowd advantage against two teams that performed poorly on the road this season. 

Do not ignore these issues in filling out the early part of the bracket.

5. Go With Your Gut Instinct, Not an Expert

Every year for the past ten years, I have filled out one bracket within an hour of the Selection Show, and then a second bracket after careful consideration and three days. 

It should not surprise you that the initial bracket outperforms the overly analyzed bracket roughly 80 percent of the time. 

Keeping in mind that all these other rules have been followed, going with your gut instinct sometimes is just the best way to weasel out the best picks different from all your competitors.

The more you listen to experts, the more you will end up picking the same upsets that everyone else does.  I already feel slightly uncomfortable with Cincinnati in my sweet sixteen and Florida in my Final Four, but that will still likely end up better than thinking out every step and falling into the same traps every other "expert" does. 

So while this may not be self-serving on a sports writing website, go fill out your bracket immediately and go with your gut instinct before it is too late for independent thought.

As always, best of luck in deciphering the magical bracket that is the 2011 NCAA tournament.  Remember, nobody wins NCAA pools every year, but you can separate yourself as a true contender.  See you in the pool(s)!