Derrick Rose Will Lead the Chicago Bulls To At Least 4 NBA Championships

Chicago Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf predicted the Chicago Bulls would win four championships under Derrick Rose. On Saturday night, Michael Jordan, who won six banners of his own with the Bulls, added to the drama by predicting a possibility of six more.

Some have been critical of these sorts of comments, citing the criticism heaped on LeBron James for making similar predictions when he joined the Miami Heat.

There are two differences between the comments though. One, there's a difference between an owner making a boast and a player making one. It's one thing to boast what "he" will do, and another to boast what "I" will do. 

The other difference is that Reinsdorf may actually be right.

In fact, I'm inclined to agree with him. Rose will lead the Chicago Bulls to at least four more championships. I use the same qualifier as Reinsdorf, though, in saying that the prediction is qualified by a big "if"—they, particularly Rose, stay healthy. 

Now I'm not just saying that out sheer fandommoniam. There's a logic to it.

Consider the fact that only one other player in the entire history of the NBA has had a season like Rose is having. He has a usage rate over 30 percent, an assist rate over 40 percent, a turnover rate of less than 15 percent and less than 30 percent of his field goals assisted. That other player was Dwyane Wade in 2008-09.

So what does all of that mean and why does that translate into championships, particularly since Wade didn't win one in '09? That's what I'd be asking if I were reading this article.

Usage rate is the percentage of plays which ends with a player, either through his attempting a field goal or turning it over. Assist rate is the percentage of baskets by teammates which are assisted by the player while he is on the floor.

Turnover is the percentage of the time a possession ends with a player turning it over. It is the best measure of ball handling because players who handle the ball more are going to turn it over more.

Player A may have twice  as many turnovers as Player B, but if Player A handles the ball three times as much as Player B, then turning it over only twice as much means he is a better ball handler. 

Assisted rate is the percentage of field goals a player makes which are assisted. It is a way of telling whether the player is creating shots with or without the ball. Some take a lower assisted rate to be a good thing, but really it's a different thing. Karl Malone, one of the greatest scorers of all time, had most of his shots assisted. 

In Rose's case, though, when put together with the other things mentioned, it shows a player with a particular combination of abilities. He has an incredible ability to penetrate and create shots for himself, and at the same time he can pass out of the lane and create shots for others. He can do all of this with a low percentage of turnovers. 

Watch the Bulls some time and pay attention to the way defenses respond to Rose. When he penetrates, the defense collapses, and Rose will pass out of the lane to one of his open teammates. 

This is one of the single-most compelling arguments for Rose being the league MVP, and this is why the Bulls will win rings with him as the cornerstone. 

When Rose passes out of isolation, the team's field-goal percentage goes up nearly eight percent. Let that sink in for a moment. That's an incredible fact right there. The reason that happens is Rose's ability as a distributor is vastly underrated. 

Note, that doesn't just mean the player he's passing to but when he passes out of isolation. The reason is that when he penetrates, someone is coming on help defense. If no one comes, then watch out. He's getting to the rim, and no one is going to stop him one-on-one. 

If you need a mental image, think of the Miami game. With the game tied and less than a minute left, Rose was guarded by James, one of the premier defenders in the game. Wade came over to help James, leaving Luol Deng wide open. 

Rose saw this and kicked it out to Deng who had enough time to eat a bag of Cheetos and watch the extended version of Avatar before draining the three. 

Rose's penetration opens up the perimeter players, and his vision leads to them getting better looks, better shots and the Bulls winning games.

Statistically speaking, that difference in field-goal percentage means that 3.2 shots that normally wouldn't go in, go in as a result of Rose's penetration. That means 6.4 points a game, which is almost the exact margin of victory for the Bulls. 

When people talk about great players and MVPs, they talk about players who make the players around them better. That's exactly what Rose is doing. In fact I don't know of another player where you can draw such a direct correlation. 

Still you might ask, "Then why didn't it work for Wade?" That would be a valid question, and I have a valid answer: Tom Thibodeau.  

Thibodeau got the head coaching job for the Bulls not because of his defensive genius but because of the offensive system he drew up and it all centered around Derrick Rose. Part of the reason the Bulls are contending for the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed is that with Thibs and Rose, this was by design. 

The other reason is Thibs' defensive system.

The Bulls have a championship-level defense and have arguably the best defense in the NBA. That defense isn't built around a single player, and that system is highly effective. The only team in the conversation for best defense with the Bulls are the Boston Celtics, and they still run that same defense designed by the same man.

Having said that, the best defensive player the Bulls have, Joakim Noah, is locked up for years to come. Between he and Thibodeau, the defense is going to remain a   championship-level defense as long as they are here.

Rose's playmaking ability is not going anywhere. Those ingredients are the ingredients of a champion, and those things aren't going to change. 

Then there's the intangibles.

There's a reason that people who have been around the greatest player of all time look at Rose and see more championships in the future. There's a reason that even the greatest player of all time looks at Rose and sees championships in his future. There's that intangible quality that Jordan had that Rose has as well. 

Whether it's Scottie Pippen, Stacey King, Reinsdorf or even Jordan himself, they all see in Rose what was in Jordan, that fire to win and that desire to improve and to accomplish. The desire to win.

At just 22, Rose is already showing the ability to close out games, to carry a team and elevate his game to elite status. When you really stop and think about it, it's easy to see reasons why the Bulls have multiple banners in their future. It would be much harder to think of reasons they wouldn't.