NCAA Tournament Analysis: 37 Fun Tips to Help You Win Your Bracket

I did so awesome with my analysis last year that I decided to go back to the lab and come up with some more fun facts. These are little tidbits of information that will provide some historical perspective to help you complete a better bracket. The big change of this year's analysis is that I will not boldly proclaim a team to get rid of early in item No. 1. Yeah, that Duke recommendation failed miserably.

37 Fun Tips to Help You Win Your Bracket

1. The winner of the UAB/Clemson game will finish their game on Tuesday night in Dayton around 11:00 PM. They have to play in Tampa 37 hours later. For those criticizing their inclusion in the bracket, they're not getting an easy ride.

2. Some good news for UAB or Clemson. Florida is a black hole for favorites. The last time the tournament was in Tampa, all four better seeds lost. Two No. 4 and two No. 5 seeds lost in 2008. If that isn't strange enough, all of Florida appears to be a black hole. Last year, a No. 5 seed lost in Jacksonville, in 2009 a No. 4 and No. 5 lost in Miami and in 2006 a No. 5 and No. 6 lost in Jacksonville. West Virginia should be weary, UCLA and Kentucky should be really worried.

3. UCLA should be worried and exhausted. They are flying from LA to Tampa to play on Thursday. At least they are going with the jet stream. Maybe UCSB can share a plane. Penn State and Temple have to go from Pennsylvania to Tucson to play an 11:10 local time game. It's a game made for Starbucks.

4. Speaking of pain, someone in the committee must have been laughing at the fans of Tucson, as they get both teams from the historic 36-33 game in the Big 10 tournament. Thankfully it's St. Patrick's Day.

5. San Diego State has never won an NCAA tournament game. Northern Colorado has never been to the NCAA tournament. Someone has to win, unless Penn State puts them in a trance in the early game and both teams are unable to play.

6. The Big East has had a team lose to a double digit seed in the round of 64 each year since 2004. With nine possibilities this year, at least one them is losing in round one.

7. Some deeper Big East analysis: this year the league has 11 teams, breaking the record they set in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Rarely is it mentioned how those eight teams did in the tournament. The breakdown is below:

Eight of the 24 teams lost in the first round (including four Big East teams last year, a No. 3, two No. 6's and a No. 9)

Seven of the 24 teams lost in the round of 32

Five of the 24 teams lost in the Sweet 16

Three of the 24 teams lost in the Elite Eight (zero last year)

8. In those three years, the Big East had:

Three No. 1 seeds

Three No. 2 seeds

Three No. 3 seeds

Only the 2010 West Virginia squad (as a No. 2 seed) made the Final Four.

9. In those three years, a team from the Colonial, Horizon and Conference USA made the Final Four. Just sheer volume may cause a Big East team to make the Final Four, but the volume so far hasn't necessarily equaled long runs.

10. For those who always want to pick two No. 12 seeds in round one, remember now that the additional teams have led to a shift in the bracketing. Two teams that would have been No. 12 seeds last year are now No. 13 seeds.

11. Another thing to remember about the No. 12 seeds is in order to have at-large teams at the No. 11 seed, the No. 12 seeds had to be automatic bids (minus the first four game). Richmond, Memphis and Utah State are normally 9-11 seeds in any other year. Much better teams than normal, and the old No. 12 seeds still won.

12. If you want some readily available tournament tickets, ask Pittsburgh fans. They get a No. 1 seed and have to travel 100 extra miles to go to Washington DC instead of Cleveland. Ohio State and Xavier fans will probably be good marks.

13. Even the committee was a bit overwhelmed and annoyed at the Big East, since they guaranteed two of the teams can't get to the Sweet 16. For the record, UConn won at Cincinnati and Marquette won at home against Syracuse.

14. When I heard Butler vs. Old Dominion, something struck me as being very familiar. Then I remembered that I was at their 2007 NCAA tournament game. I wish I wasn't, it was terrible. Butler appears to be the mid-major assassin. Last year, they beat UTEP. In 2008, they beat South Alabama and had another win in 2007.

15. Last year, eight double digit seeds in the first round won. In 2009, eight double digit seeds won in round one. In 2008, six double digit seeds won. There are always years like 2007 where nothing happens, but the trend appears to be going towards a decent amount of upsets. Don't believe the chalk.

16. Eliminate at least two No. 4 seeds before the Sweet 16. The last time three No. 4 seeds made the Sweet 16 was 2000. Last year, only Purdue made the Sweet 16.

17. Get rid of a No. 2 seed in round two. Historically, usually one No. 2 seed doesn't make it through the opening weekend—Villanova was that team last year. More often than not, it's the No. 10 seed that wins in round two.

18. Spend very little time on the eight and nine seeds. Pick two No. 8 seeds and two No. 9 seeds. Rarely do those seeds make it through the opening weekend (Northern Iowa being the exception).

19. Put the No. 1 seeds into the Sweet 16. The odds of picking a Northern Iowa type upset are far worse than the benefit of one round of points.

20. Only five No. 14-16 seeds have won a game in the tournament in the last 12 years. Ohio was a rare exception last year. Then again with the shift in the bracket, the No. 14 seeds have become a tougher out. Indiana State is an MVC team, St Peters comes from the tricky MAAC, Wofford almost won last year and Bucknell won the last time they were a 14th seed. Only pick a 14th seed if you are confident the team would lose in the round of 32.

21. Gus Johnson is really strong when it comes to announcing Final Four teams. In six of the last eight years, he has called a team that advanced to the Final Four. Ohio State and Syracuse should like the sound of that.

22. Since 2002, Ian Eagle has announced one team that has made the Final Four. Add to the fact that Ian is in the black hole of favorites in Tampa, and Florida and Kentucky's chances look diminished.

23. Last year, I asked if the Craig Bolerjack upset machine could transfer to Spero Dedes. He announced the Murray State game last year. Spero is in Chicago this year, putting Georgetown, Purdue, Texas A&M and Notre Dame on alert.

24. On average, 10 of the chalk teams (1-4) make the Sweet 16. The average was messed with a bit last year when only eight made it.

25. If you are looking for a good shot at an upset, analyze the coaching matchups. One stands out as a pretty sizable mismatch in the round of 64. I won't reveal the team, but I will provide a hint in saying that they will not be playing in their arena next year.

26. Advance two double digit seeds to the round of 16. It doesn't happen this way every year, but it does happen a lot. Last year, St Mary's, Washington and Cornell advanced.

27. This year I will say something nice about Duke. I'm not sure why the defending national champion and most marquee team in college basketball is playing their round of 64 game on TruTV, in the second Friday afternoon game. I can see wanting to get that awesome Washington vs. Georgia game during prime time on CBS.

28. Kansas and their home court advantage in Tulsa is a bit dampened. The last two times Kansas went into the state of Oklahoma, they didn't make it out of opening weekend.

29. The last three times the NCAA tournament has been in Denver, no double digit seeds have won.

30. In almost every year in the last 10 (minus 2008), at least one Final Four team did not win their conference tournament. This does vary greatly, as in 2007 and 2010 three of the Final Four won their conference tournament, and in 2009 none of them did.

31. The picking-two-teams-from-the-same-conference-in-the-Final-Four tip is a mediocre one at best. In the last 10 years, that has happened six times, yet only once in the last four years. The tip is mediocre because of the six times, two teams from the same conference made the Final Four, only Florida won the tournament.

32. Upsets in the round of 64 are evenly scattered, meaning the times of the upsets are mostly balanced. Since 2003, the most double digit upsets have taken place in session three Thursday and session three Friday. Teams playing at that time are Marquette, St Peters, Long Island, Boston, Belmont, Wofford, UCSB and Bucknell.

33. There are seven teams with 30 wins in the tournament. Three of them are No. 1 seeds. Two of them are Mountain West teams. The other two are No. 12 and No. 13 seeds playing Thursday in Tucson. These are two very interesting upset possibilities (and would rule since I will be in attendance).

34. New Orleans is the definition of neutral site. Florida is the closest team in the region according to Google Maps at 531 miles. Belmont is tied. Unlike where San Diego State can play in Anaheim and Texas A&M can play in San Antonio, nobody in the Southeast will have a massive home crowd.

35. If you really are buying big into the quality of the Big East, buy the path of least resistance. There are four Big East teams in the East, two in the West, three in the Southwest and two in the Southeast. The highest rated teams in the West and Southeast are UConn and Pitt. If you want a Big East team in the Final Four, start there.

36. Quick basic primer to the bracket: advance all No. 1-3 seeds, pick two No. 9 seeds, pick two No. 10 seeds. Then pick one or two No. 11 seeds and one or two No. 12 seeds. Normally the recommendation is to pick one No. 13 seed, but I say with the shift two No. 13 seeds winning should be solid this year. From there, advance 10 chalk seeds (1-4) to the Sweet 16, five (1-2) seeds to the Elite Eight, and at least two No. 1 seeds to the Final Four.

37. I said I wasn't going to do this, but I'm at 37 so it is fitting. If you think Texas is going to beat Duke, please invite me into your bracket pool. Please, I'll bring beer and chips and plenty of cash.

Since the year began, Texas has lost every game they have allowed 70 or more in. Arizona has scored 70 points 12 times this year, and Oakland has scored 70 or more in every game in 2011. One good note for Texas is that Oakland's offense did struggle against Big 10 teams. One bad note is that Texas may have to get through both of them to face Duke. Good luck with that.