Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers: Destined To Meet in Phil's Last Finals?

With last night's blowout of the Atlanta Hawks, the Chicago Bulls moved within a half-game of the Boston Celtics for the Eastern Conference lead. Tonight, they celebrate the 20th anniversary of their first ever NBA championship which they won over the Los Angeles Lakers. With a win against the Utah Jazz they would move into a first place tie. 

That particular conjunction of events got me to thinking, what if 2011 marked a rematch of the 1991 finals series? There would be a tremendous story line to it. Phil Jackson's final season, pitting his latter championship team against his former team. 

Then there's the notion of the torch passing, from Phil to Tom Thibodeau for starters. Jackson, the greatest coach of the Bulls' past would be the perfect opponent to the apparent coach of the Bulls' future. Both were surprise first-time hires by the Bulls. 

Then there's the passing of the torch from Kobe Bryant to Derrick Rose. Earlier this season after giving some praise to Rose, Bryant was asked "Are you passing the torch to him?" His response, "I'm not passing (expletive) to anyone, he's going to have to take it from me."

The next night Rose and the Bulls beat the Lakers, but that's just wrestling for the torch. If the Bulls take the Lakers out and end their quest for a second threepeat, that would be taking it. 

Such a passing would even be ironic as the proverbial torch which Bryant carries was formerly held by Michael Jordan and prior to that, by Magic Johnson. Thus the lineage of the torch would  bee as follows, Lakers point guard to Bulls shooting guard, to Lakers shooting guard, to Bulls point guard—thus the circle would close. 

Is such a finals realistic though? There are the Mavericks and the Spurs to contend with the Lakers in the West, but seeing that the Lakers are two-time defending world champions and three-time defending Western Conference champions, I'll assume that most readers won't challenge the premise that the Lakers are realistic contenders out of the West. Perhaps they aren't a forgone conclusion, but if not the favorite, certainly a favorite.

No, it's the other half of that equation which needs some defense. Can the Bulls actually win the Eastern Conference? It's only within the last few weeks that some have begun to accept the possibility that the Bulls could be in the Conference finals, much less the NBA finals. There is however, ample evidence to support the notion that the Bulls could win the East. 

Consider the following factors. Hollinger's Playoff Odds presently have the Bulls as 58.9 percent favorites to win the top seed in the Eastern Conference and 40 percent favorites to win the Conference Finals. In fact their listed odds of winning the championship, 23 percent, are the best of any team in the NBA. 

Justin Kubatako's Playoff Probabilities Report on basketball-reference have the Bulls as 51.9 percent favorites to win the top seed and 27.9 percent favorites to make it to the finals. He has them at 15.3 percent chances of winning it all, third-best in the NBA behind the Spurs and Lakers. 

So is this just statistic mumbo-jumbo or does it make actual basketball sense?

Well according to virtually every measure of basketball, it's hard to argue with. 

First—consider this—Carlos Boozer didn't have a training camp and had only one full practice ever with the Bulls before Chicago played their back-to-back games against Orlando and Boston at the beginning of December. The Bulls dropped those two games and fell to 9-8 overall. 

Since then however, the Bulls have gone 37-10. That ties them with San Antonio (36-9) for the best record in the NBA over that span. The Bulls' 8.7 average margin of victory over that time frame is also the best in the NBA. The Bulls' defense since then has yielded an average of a stingy 88.4 points per game. 

Don't forget however that the Bulls were also without Noah for a significant portion of that time, who is their best defender.  Counting the games since Boozer returned while Noah is in the lineup—the lineup that the Bulls will be presenting in the playoffs, the Bulls are 14-4 with an average margin of victory of 98.4-86.7. That's not statistical mumbo-jumbo, that's absolutely dominant basketball. 

Still not convinced? Thinking that this is just a side-effect of playing in the weak Central Division? Not quite. Against the top four seeds in the two conferences, the Bulls are 10-0 over that span, with three wins over Miami, two over Orlando and one over the Spurs, Mavericks, Lakers and Thunder. Against playoff teams, they are 19-5.

Since the All-Star game, six of their nine games have come against playoff teams and seven of their nine games have been on the road. Still, they are 7-2 since the break and they have the best efficiency differential post All-Star break of any team in the NBA.  

Concerned about their bench? Not so fast. In terms of efficiency differential, the Bulls defense is the third-best in the NBA on the course of the season and that's with a significant number of games having to have their "bench" fill in as starters. 

Not impressed? Their primary bench unit, which has Luol Deng playing with CJ Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, yields only 77 points per 100 possessions, the best five man unit in the NBA—starting or bench.

Maybe you're thinking this is the type of team built for regular season success that doesn't succeed in the postseason.

Not so fast.

Consider the factors that translate into postseason success: defense, bigs, rebounding and coaching. The Bulls success is based on all of those things. 

Defense wins championships as they say and the Bulls' defense is the best in the NBA. They allow the fewest points per game (91.2), the fewest points per 100 possessions (99.8), the lowest field goal percentage (.429) and the lowest 3-point percentage (.327). As you might guess, that means they also have the lowest effective field goal percentage (.462) as well.

When you give up a low field goal percentage it helps to be a good rebounding team as well. The Bulls are third-best in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage and fifth in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage. The Bulls also lead the NBA in rebounding differential. 

When it comes to the bigs, the Bulls have the best collection of them in the Eastern Conference, particularly with Boston trading out Perkins to the Thunder. In a playoff series, they are going to own the paint against anyone—Boston, Miami or even Orlando. 

The upside of having Boozer and Noah miss games with injury is the Bulls got to see the growth of Omer Asik, the continued development of Taj Gibson and the still-present value of Kurt Thomas. Because of the injuries the bench has gotten more playing time than they might have otherwise and in doing so, the depth of the Bulls' bigs is the deepest of any team in the NBA. 

Since the All-Star break, with Boozer and Noah playing together and their bench complete, the Bullls have outscored their opponents by 6.7 points per game in the paint, the best in the NBA. 

Concerned about coaching? Tom Thibodeau was the Eastern Conference Coach of the month for a reason. The Bulls are both the best second half and best fourth quarter team in the NBA. Their average margin of +4.3 in the second half and +2.4 in the fourth quarter are a direct result of Thibodeau's halftime adjustments. 

The Bulls have the second-most fourth quarter comebacks int he NBA with 10. They've only lost three times when leading after three. Only the Celtics (7-5) have a better record in games settled by three points or less than the Bulls (6-5) in the Eastern Conference.

The Bulls are also the only team in the history of the NBA to come back from deficits of 23 points or greater twice in the same season.

This is a team that knows how to play behind and play ahead. They know how to play in the clutch.

They also are a team who knows how to play in the rematch. Against teams they've lost to, they are 11-3 in the rematch. That's a combination of Thib's coaching and Derrick Rose's killer instinct. These are things that bode well in a seven-game series.  

There might be some who question the Bulls on the road, as they did struggle on the road earlier in the season. First, it should be pointed out that the Bulls' road struggles are greatly exaggerated. They've won 10 of their last 14 on the road, seven of their last nine and five of their last six. They've literally made one team cry and one Hall of Fame coach quit on the road this season. That's hardly struggling.

Having said that if they secure the top seed it won't matter as the Bulls are the most dominant home team in the NBA. If they beat Utah at home tonight they move into a first place tie with Boston. Over the remainder of the season the Bulls will only face six more teams with winning records; the Celtics play nine.

The teams also play one another once more and that game is in Chicago. If Chicago wins that game, then they could secure the tie breaker with Boston if they can get the better conference record.

In other words, the Bulls have the inside track for the first seed. Right now they are playing better than Boston and they play an easier schedule through the rest of the season. 

Getting the top seed would be very helpful in several ways. First, it would mean the easiest matchup against a first round opponent. While the Bulls would be quickly dispatching the Pacers whom they've gone 3-0 against this season, the Celtics would be mired in a series against the 76ers or Knicks, depending on how they finish. 

Then in the second round while presumably the Heat and Celtics would be battling it out, the Bulls would be drawing the winner of Atlanta and Orlando. 

Then of course in the finals the Bulls would have the home court against whoever survived between Boston and Miami. 

Does all of this mean the Bulls are a lock to be in the finals? No, of course not. There's still LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the Heat. There's still four All-Stars on the Celtics. They do have a realistic shot though. They may even have the best shot in the NBA. And if they do make it to the finals, what team would be better to go up against than the Lakers? I have a feeling the Bulls wouldn't want it any other way.