NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: 20 Teams to Avoid in Your Bracket
Every year there are those teams that crush your hopes and dreams of winning your office pool because of their choke-artist tactics. Spoiler alert—they'll be present at this year's dance too. Sorry folks. But there's hope.
I'm here to tell you who they are ahead of time so you don't waste your time (and money) on the wrong teams once again. Some are to be avoided because of their matchups, while others are just worse than you may think. Either way, these teams won't be wearing any kind of glass slipper this March.
10) Michigan State Spartans (19-14, 9-9)
1 of 20
Despite their run in the Big Ten tournament to secure their bid in the NCAA, the Spartans aren't a sleeper that you want to use in your bracket.
Sparty was incredibly inconsistent all season after starting out the season as the second ranked team in the country. MSU just couldn't manage to win games that they should have and despite returning most of their roster, they just weren't the same team that ran to the Final Four in last year's tournament.
They only managed to get one decent win out of conference play, a three point overtime win against Wisconsin. Out of conference, they beat Washington in the Maui Invitational, but barely.
They drew a 10 seed and they have to play a surprisingly good UCLA team. This matchup doesn't bode well for the struggling Spartans as UCLA works mainly through it's dominating forwards.
At 19-14 on the season, the Spartans just don't have the record, resume or intensity of a team that's going far in the NCAA tournament.
4) Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, 13-5)
2 of 20
Wisconsin may be one of the more overrated teams in the country this season. Yes, they did hand Ohio State one of it's two losses this season and they also beat a resurgent Purdue team, but if you examine their resumes closely, that is about all they have.
If you throw out those two wins, their best performance is a five point victory at Marquette back in December. Couple that with losses against Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State in conference and their body of work is fairly unimpressive.
Sure, they've played an impressive strength of schedule. But their 5-6 away record shows that the Badgers can't win big games away from home, which may be a problem in the NCAA tournament. Their best road win other than Marquette is Michigan, which they eked out by one point.
We know they are playing Belmont. The Belmont Bruins are one the best of the mid-major automatic qualifiers. At 30-4 on the season they are poised to be a giant killer this year. Only one of their losses came during conference play, and the others came against Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Oh and let's not forget; they lost in the Big Ten tournament to Penn State by a score of 36-33. You aren't going anywhere if you can only put up 33 points on Penn State.
3) Brigham Young Cougars (30-4, 14-2)
3 of 20
No disrespect to Jimmer Fredette. He's my National Player of the Year, especially after his 52 point performance on Friday night.
However, other than Fredette there is no one to score for the Cougars. After the Brandon Davies dismissal, BYU's main post production is gone as well as their leading rebounder. The detriment to their team was evident in their first game without him, as they went down to New Mexico.
Rarely ever does a team with one star player make it very far in the tournament. Even Stephen Curry had the best passer in the country running the point for him.
The furthest I can see BYU going is the Sweet Sixteen, but they'll have to get past either St. John's or Gonzaga to even get that far.
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9) Villanova Wildcats (21-11, 9-9)
4 of 20
Villanova made the list because of their late season plummet in the Big East. The Wildcats started off the season in super fashion being ranked in the top 10 to start off the season. However, by the end of their murderous Big East schedule, Nova had dropped from the top 25 after losing 10 of their last 15 games.
We need to remember that the Wildcats did play in the Big East, which can't be overstated. That conference is possibly the most competitive we've ever seen any conference in the history of college basketball.
However, this also tells me that Villanova has a very difficult time beating the juggernauts of the country which will probably be a problem come tournament time. Once you get into March, no one is easy to beat, and if you don't have a lot of experience you could be a vulnerable upset.
Villanova was also upset last year in the NCAA tournament by 10th seeded St. Mary's after barely escaping the first round as a two seed. The Wildcats are wildly inconsistent in the postseason and this year's postseason hasn't started any better with their loss to South Florida on the first day of the Big East tournament.
We'll see if they can rebound in the NCAA tournament, but I doubt that Villanova will go very far, especially given they'll have to upset Ohio State if they even get out of the first round.
9) Tennessee Volunteers (19-14, 8-8)
5 of 20
Tennessee has a plethora of reasons they shouldn't be picked in your bracket this season.
First off, their off the court issues are enough to put a cloud over their ability to win games. Bruce Pearl has been involved in some shady business the last few years, and he was suspended for eight games this season for violating NCAA rules and misleading investigators.
However, even more than that, they have been ridiculously inconsistent on the court as well. They are limping into the postseason. They haven't won two straight games since February 3rd, the Volunteers were knocked out in their second game of the SEC tournament and they failed to capitalize on the opportunity to grab a signature win at the end of the season.
Their two out of conference wins over Villanova and Pittsburgh kept them in the tournament situation, but they are a nine seed and that doesn't bode well for them. Even if they advance past eighth seeded Michigan, they get to (most likely) play Duke in the second round. A difficult schedule doesn't bode well for the Vols.
2) North Carolina Tar Heels (26-7, 14-2)
6 of 20
North Carolina has played very well down the stretch. Enough so that they earned a No. 2 seed thanks to a 19 of 22 finish to the season. They are a very young and talented team, but the ACC tournament showed us they are still susceptible to getting upset.
The Tar Heels showed exactly what the worries about them are this weekend. They went down early in all three of their games, but managed to come back and win the first two against the inferior Clemson and Miami. Duke managed to hold their lead and stop the Tar Heels by forcing them to play like the did at the beginning of the season—sloppy and out of control.
North Carolina scores in spurts. If they are held without scoring for a long time, it doesn't mean they won't start scoring. The Tar Heels do have difficulty playing consistently throughout the entire game, which is how teams can take advantage of the UNC. For as talented as the Tar Heels are, they are still very young and their inexperience may cause them to exit the tournament early.
4) Texas Longhorns (27-7, 13-3)
7 of 20
The Texas Longhorns are on here because of the scheduling. While they are still a good team, they have to play the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in the first round, which could pose a problem. Then, they have to go up against Arizona or Memphis, two other very dangerous teams.
Oakland's Keith Benson is an absolute monster. The nation's third leading shot blocker, Benson is one of the best seniors in the country and can do everything as a center. He passes very well for a big man and that opens up the rest of the floor.
The Grizzlies played a very tough non-conference schedule and played closely with teams like Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue. They even got a tough win against Tennessee.
Oakland is no slouch, so don't be surprised if they take down the Longhorns. Either way, Tristan Thompson will definitely have his hands full in the post going up against Keith Benson and possibly Derrick Williams.
4) Louisville Cardinals (25-9, 12-6)
8 of 20
Louisville is on the list because of one man. Kenneth Faried.
Faried is the forward for Morehead State, the Cardinals' first round opponent. Faried is the nation's leading rebounder and he is an absolute force. He pulls down over 14 rebounds on average as well as being an excellent post defender.
Louisville won't be able to shut down Faried. It is just impossible. If they want to beat Morehead State, they'll need to shoot a high percentage as well as being smart on the offensive end. It will very difficult for them to get any rebounds so they'll have to step up their defense and hope that Faried won't kill them on the offensive boards as well.
The Cardinals are guard oriented, so they don't rely heavily on rebounding anyway, but that means Faried will just have more opportunities to take advantage of his mismatch. Watch out, Louisville could go down in the first round.
10) Georgia Bulldogs (21-11, 9-7)
9 of 20
Georgia made it a habit of playing in close games during the regular season, but they never seemed to win many of them. Many people questioned whether they would make the tournament—but they did—and they're going to have to dramatically increase their play if they're going to get past the teams they drew.
Georgia just couldn't pull it together down the stretch of many games this season, but despite struggling in the final part of the season, the Bulldogs managed to hang on to a tournament bid.
Washington is a very good team that was ranked for a lot of the season. They also managed to knock off Arizona twice in the last couple of weeks of the season in order to win the Pac 10 championship. The Huskies are very dangerous and could make a run themselves.
8) Butler Bulldogs (23-9, 13-5)
10 of 20
The Butler team that was in the national championship game last year is gone. This team is not as good as they were. In fact, they struggled this season.
The Bulldogs managed to right the ship towards the end of conference play and they won their conference tournament, but they still lost five games in the Horizon League. They also play the Old Dominion Monarchs, a team that is very dangerous after winning the Colonial conference tournament.
Naturally it is very difficult for eight seeds to advance anyway because of the nature of their second round match with the No. 1 seed, in this case Pittsburgh. Don't expect a Cinderella run from Butler this year.
11) USC Trojans (19-14, 10-8)
11 of 20
The Trojans just snuck into the tournament this season after a strong late push, but their luck may run out fairly quickly. There is more than one problem with their chances in the tournament.
First, they are one of the last four teams that will have to play on Tuesday night. That adds just another game before they are in the same round as everyone else. It will be difficult to make it to the second round after playing two games in four days.
Second, they have a very mediocre record, in and out of conference play. In the conference, they lost eight games. In the Pac 10, which is having a very down year, that isn't good enough to be considered a solid team. They lost to Oregon twice and Oregon State once.
USC will have a lot of work to do to make it further in this tournament, more so than most of the teams. I would avoid USC all together, but at most, they pull out the victory over VCU.
6) Cincinnati Bearcats (25-8, 11-7)
12 of 20
Cincinnati was somewhat underrated during the regular season, but I think despite getting a favorable six seed, they still have a large chance of going home early. Cincinnati doesn't have the star power to advance very far in the tournament. Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon are very good players, but they don't really have a supporting cast.
They also drew Missouri in their first game. Missouri has been ranked all season, until the very end of the year. Marcus Denmon and company aren't playing that well currently, but they have the talent to be a top 15 team.
This is a strong pick for an upset alert.
1) Duke Blue Devils (30-4, 13-3)
13 of 20
Duke is still one of the best teams in the country and they don't have too difficult of a schedule, but two factors are going to be huge in determining how their tournament goes.
One is their reliance on the three pointer. If Duke isn't converting from long range, it is very difficult for the Devils to score. They shoot 37 percent as a team from long range, and they take 21 per game. When they don't convert, games like the St. John's game happen and Duke is vulnerable.
The other thing that makes Duke open to losing is their reliance on their home court. Duke only played 10 road games all season. Their record at opposing stadiums was 6-4. While they won't be playing at their opponents stadium, they aren't in Cameron Indoor Stadium, which is such an advantage for them.
5) West Virginia Mountaineers (20-11, 11-7)
14 of 20
West Virginia is playing some really good basketball at the moment, but I don't know how they'll fare against two of the teams in their immediate vicinity.
First, if Clemson wins their first game against UAB they'll have to play the Mountaineers next. The Tigers almost knocked off UNC in the ACC tournament due to constant persistence and a very hard fought game. They may not be the most talented team in the world, but they can definitely stick with good teams. Clemson hustles as hard as any team out there, which causes problems for every team and should be a problem for WVU.
If the Mountaineers can advance past their first game, they'll potentially have another scary game against a very good Kentucky team. Kentucky is one of the most talented teams in the country, which could pose a significant threat to the Mountaineers. West Virginia has struggled at times against teams with strong guard play, and Doron Lamb and Brandon Knight are potentially one of the best back-courts in basketball.
There are lots of obstacles for West Virginia and I don't think they'll be able to handle all of them to advance to the Sweet 16.
5) Kansas State Wildcats (22-10, 10-6)
15 of 20
Kansas State got off to a very rough beginning of the conference season. They lost their first two conference games and four of their first five, causing some to believe (including yours truly) that they would be missing out on the tournament. However, they salvaged the season and by the end of the regular season, they had moved into fourth place in the Big 12.
With that being said, they may not make it out of their first pairings. In their first game, the Wildcats play 30-3 Utah State, a mid-major that is always very dangerous. The Aggies are one of the best mid-majors in the country, plus they are playing very close to home in Tucson. Utah State has a very rowdy fan base and you can expect them to show in numbers.
Jacob Pullen's play was a main reason that the Wildcats didn't do as well as expected early in the season. Pullen was struggling very badly at the beginning and K-State only did really well once he started playing up to his potential. It is very possible that he could go cold at any second and Utah State may be able to take advantage of this.
If they do advance to a second game, they'll be playing the winner of Belmont and Wisconsin, two very difficult teams as well.
10) Penn State Nittany Lions (19-14, 9-9)
16 of 20
If you're looking for a 7-10 upset, this isn't it. The Nittany Lions barely scraped their way in after a miraculous run to the Big Ten tournament final. They somehow beat Wisconsin while only scoring 36 points in their second game of the tournament and then they beat Michigan State as well.
They'll also be playing Temple in the first game. Temple was one of the best teams in the A 10 this season, and they are one of the more underrated teams in the country.
Penn State can't afford to not score like they always do. Temple is going to score much more frequently and will probably work the ball into Lavoy Allen in the post because Penn State is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. Don't expect much out of Penn State mainly because they don't score much and they just don't win that many games.
3) Syracuse Orange (26-7, 12-6)
17 of 20
Syracuse has a potentially difficult matchup in the second round that could oust them early.
A potential game against Xavier could pose problems for the Orange. The shooters for the Musketeers can wreak havoc on that 2-3 zone that has become so familiar from Boeheim's clubs.
Junior Tu Holloway is a force to be reckoned with that could really give Syracuse fits. If he gets hot, it could spell trouble.
7) Texas A&M Aggies (24-8, 10-6)
18 of 20
The Aggies were a bit of a surprise in the Big 12, but their surprise factor has somewhat worn off and we're now left with a mediocre team with a couple quality wins. All of Texas A&M's impressive wins have come against teams that we originally thought were better than they turned out being.
Texas A&M is led by Khris Middleton, the forward who is their leading scorer and second leading rebounder. Trouble can occur for the Aggies who struggle when Middleton struggles. They also play Florida State, a defensive team that is very well-known for their defensive pressure. I think this is a huge trap game for Texas A&M and they might not advance past the first round.
9) Illinois Fighting Illini (19-13, 8-8)
19 of 20
The Illini really fell apart down the stretch and they still haven't fully recovered. They were originally ranked in the upper half of the top 25, but due to some tough losses right before the beginning of conference play, they just collapsed.
They limped through the Big Ten schedule and they've ridden their non-conference schedule and some wins into the tournament. However, they have encountered a nightmare scenario with their draw. They play a good UNLV team led by the sensational Tre'Von Willis first, but even if they win that game, they're going to have to deal with Kansas, a very experienced team that has only lost two games.
I really doubt Illinois will even beat UNLV, but if they do, they won't get past Kansas.
6) Georgetown Hoyas (21-10, 10-8)
20 of 20
Georgetown started out the season great, but towards the end of their brutal Big East schedule, they started to stumble. They Hoyas have also lost four straight games coming into the tournament, never a good sign for a team that started off so promising.
They do have Chris Wright back for the NCAA tournament, which is a bonus considering they were struggling so badly without their point guard.
They will play the winner of the USC vs VCU game, but either team could possibly upset the Hoyas.
The main issue I see with Georgetown is their potential match with Purdue on Sunday. Purdue is another team that has had injury issues, but they managed to work through them to be one of the better teams from the Big Ten conference. The Hoyas don't really have anyone to defend Purdue's JaJuan Johnson, one of the best big men in the country.
If Georgetown can make it to them, I really just don't envision them beating Purdue.
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