Detroit Red Wings: 5 Reasons Why Stanley Cup Talk Is Crazy Talk...for Now
Though the NHL playoff picture is about as clear as black tar, there is no shortage of predictions regarding not only who will make the postseason, but who'll end up skating away with the big sliver mug that comes at the end of it.
Philadelphia?
Sure, they've got a shot.
Vancouver?
It's do or die for that team now, isn't it?
Chicago?
Repeating is still a long shot given its reduced depth, but damn if it hasn't barreled its way into the conversation with its astounding eight-game winning streak.
There are lots of sexy picks out there, and many, including the aforementioned teams, stand a legitimate chance of ending the year as champions.
Added to the mix, as always, are the Detroit Red Wings.
The reason why isn't purely compulsory.
Sure, they're the most successful team to play in the NHL over the past two decades, and yes, they always boast an All-Star lineup.
But the reason so many people will pick the Wings to finish as Stanley Cup champions is that they have the experience, talent and coaching that is routinely the envy of most other teams in the league.
The Wings are built to win championships.
But if you've followed them at all this season, you know that being "built to win" and "winning" (do I have to pay Charlie Sheen for that word now?) are two very different things.
The Red Wings have been the model of consistent inconsistency this season, and one needs only look over their past 10 games to get a sense that, at least right now, this team is not prepared for lengthy success in the postseason.
Detroit has spent much of this season going from playing like all-world champions one night to disengaged scrub team the next.
True, their record has placed them squarely in the No. 2 spot in the West for most of the year, but with San Jose just two points behind and Chicago closing the gap with just six, that spot is far from secure.
There will be no shortage of articles enumerating the reasons this team can (some say will) win the Stanley Cup.
However, to my mind, any talk that links the words "Stanley Cup" and "Detroit Red Wings," at this point, is just plain nuts.
Here are five reasons why.
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Nicklas Lidstrom Is Minus-Two
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Yeah, this is a bit like ripping off that band-aid or eating your vegetables: Best to get it out of the way fast and move on.
Though the plus-minus stat isn't everyone's favorite and can be skewed wildly up or down, there's no getting around the fact that it does provide some indicator of a player's defensive success over an extended period of time.
Now, I don't care if Nick was minus-20; I will never not believe that he is still one of the very best defensemen in the game today and an arguable candidate for best all-time.
Nevertheless, when you see a minus-two next to the name of a man who is plus-429 in his career, you start to worry, if only a little, that maybe, just maybe, he's slipping on the "D" side of his game.
If Nick finishes the season in the minus column—hell, if he finishes "even"—it will mark the first time in his NHL career he has not finished on the plus side.
Johan Franzen Might Reach 30 Goals This Season...He Was Supposed to Get 40
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For whatever reason, "The Mule" has been a little less sure-footed in the goal-scoring department this season than expected, and despite breaking an unimaginable 14-game scoring drought, he doesn't exactly look like he's ready to catch fire.
Franzen still leads the Wings with 27 goals. However, as Detroit's premier power forward, he figured to be well past 30 by this time in the season and on his way to the first 40-goal campaign of his career.
I know what you'll say—"Franzen comes alive in the playoffs," and yes, he does.
Still, his uncharacteristically peripheral play much of the year and schizophrenic scoring ability isn't likely to suddenly disappear over the next 16 games.
Unless it does, the load the Wings were planning to pack onto this particular Mule may not be carried as well as it has in previous postseasons.
The Goals Just Keep on Coming...into Detroit's Net
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While it would be easy, and oh so typical of many a Red Wings fan, to blame Jimmy Howard for Detroit's obese (relative to their company in the standings) goals against (193), the problem really can't be placed solely at the skates of No. 35.
True, Howard's numbers aren't that great, and he has gone on extended subpar stretches this season, but he hasn't had much help in front of him this season either.
From poor puck decisions down low and turnovers to sloppy line changes, giveaways and all too cutesy plays made in front of him at the ugliest of times, the Wings as a whole have hung their goalie out to dry far too often this year.
The most disturbing trend of late is the fact that these defensive breakdowns occur late in games.
Like when the Wings were up 7-1 against the LA Kings with less than four minutes to go and the final score turned out to be 7-4.
Most disturbingly, a similar scenario played itself out during the Wings' last outing in Phoenix, although they didn't have the three extra goals to cushion the blow.
Blame Howard if you want to, but the fact that Detroit's opposition is pumping puck after puck into its twine is a team-wide problem.
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If the Playoffs Started Today...
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As of the most recent standings (March 9, 2011), if the playoffs started today, the Red Wings would face the Calgary Flames in Round 1.
The Flames are a team that many people wrote off just a couple of months into the season but have since emerged as regular winners and are going to go into the home stretch of the season hungry for blood and a playoff berth.
As the Wings are currently performing, meeting a team like the Flames in the first round would almost surely spell doom for a team that not only has a hard time keeping pucks out of their net (the Flames are fourth in the West in scoring) but also doesn't exactly fare well against extended physical play (a Calgary hallmark).
The point is, even if Detroit remains in the top four in the West, it'll likely be facing a team like Calgary in the first round, a team it will not beat in seven games playing the way it has of late.
They Can Hear, but Are They Listening?
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He's saying all the right things—"play simple," "get started on time," "play the way we can"—but has Mike Babcock's voice grown stale in the Detroit locker room?
As a question, it's a legitimate one to ponder. Whether Babcock has in fact lost his team remains to be seen.
The evidence is concerning, though.
Despite continued focus on playing smart, "Red Wings hockey" and one or two verbal kicks in the butt, Babcock's team isn't responding the way it has in the past.
In fact, after their deflating loss to Phoenix last Sunday, Babcock lamented his team's lack of effort, even while they were up 4-1 on the 'Yotes.
The thing is, several players, including Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen, felt their effort was just fine until the end.
That kind of disconnect may simply be a one-time occurrence. However, if he cannot find a way to turn his words into action, Babcock is going to have an impossible time getting this team to hockey's promised land.
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