2011 NBA Mock Draft: Is Jimmer Fredette a Lock to Be Chosen in the Top 10?
The 2011 NBA Draft is not until June 23. Between now and then we still have the NCAA tournament, the rest of the NBA's regular season and the NBA playoffs to worry about.
In other words, we better get ready.
Much has changed since I did my first 2011 NBA mock draft way back in early August 2010. Players that seemed like locks for the top 10, such as Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight, have given way to true rising stars like BYU guard Jimmer Fredette and Arizona forward Derrick Williams.
With the college basketball regular season coming to a close, exactly who belongs where on the big board is hardly set in stone. But we do have a good idea and we also, more or less, know what the draft order might look like. Thus, we have all the necessary ingredients for a mock draft.
Let's give it a shot, shall we?
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
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As you well know, losing LeBron James turned out to be just as destructive to the Cleveland Cavaliers as we all suspected it would be. They currently have the league's worst record at 12-49 and they are badly in need of a new franchise player.
Had the Cavs not gone out and traded for Baron Davis, I might have been willing to entertain the idea of them taking Duke point guard Kyrie Irving. Instead, I think the best possible choice they can make is Ohio State power forward Jared Sullinger.
Despite the fact he's just a freshman, Sullinger turned out to be one of the most dominant players in the country this season. He averaged 17.1 points and 9.8 rebounds per game this season, and his high basketball IQ drew raves reviews from basketball pundits all over.
At 6'9", Sullinger is an inch or two shorter than you would like at the four spot, but his strength and intelligence help him make up for it.
He may not be as flashy as somebody like Blake Griffin, but he's definitely a player the Cavs can build around.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke
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The Minnesota Timberwolves may not be much better than they were last year, but at least they have a couple players who are worth watching every night in Kevin Love and Michael Beasley.
The Wolves took shooting guard Wesley Johnson fourth overall last year, so you might say that all they really need is a stud point guard. As far as this year's draft class goes, that means they need Duke's Kyrie Irving.
That being said, this is where the disclaimer goes. Irving did only get to play in eight games in his freshman season with the Blue Devils because of a toe injury.
He just started rehab a couple days ago. You have to think that he might not necessarily be a one-and-done guy.
Still, Irving is undeniably talented. He has a natural understanding of the point guard position and he can score in a variety of ways.
One thing I didn't see coming was his 45.3 shooting percentage from three. That obviously came from a limited sample size, but it's still solid.
On balance, the Wolves could do worse than Irving if he's there for the taking.
3. Sacramento Kings: Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky
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Let's pretend for a second that the Sacramento Kings are not an absolute mess that might find themselves packing up and leaving the state capital before long.
If we can do that, then we might just be able to find some sense of optimism in the fact that the team has two very good young players to build around in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins.
If you're asking me (and you are), their next addition will be Kentucky small forward Terrence Jones.
For the sake of explaining why Derrick Williams isn't going here, all I can really say is that I just have my doubts about a guy who primarily dominated a conference that nobody ever accused of being all that deep.
Now then, let's talk about Jones. He added 17.2 points and 9.1 rebounds this season, numbers that are similar to Jared Sullinger's.
Jones is also a very versatile player, as he can play just about every position except center. This is largely thanks to his freakish natural athleticism, as well as his ball-handling and passing abilities.
4. Washington Wizards: Derrick Williams, SF, Arizona
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There's no shortage of talent on the Washington Wizards' roster. All they really need is a bit of seasoning, but another talented young player is always a good idea, too.
Last year, the Wizards found the key to their future in point guard John Wall, and he's looked legit in his rookie campaign. This year, I'm thinking they won't hesitate to pounce on Arizona small forward Derrick Williams if he falls to them.
We all know that Williams is a bit of a tweener. At 6'7" he's definitely too short to play the four at the next level. Whether he's suited more for the two or the three I guess depends on how his perimeter game develops.
For now, we do know Williams is one of the most versatile players in the country. He can play both in and out and he has an excellent basketball IQ.
One thing that gives you great hope for his perimeter game is the fact that his three-point shooting percentage soared from 25.0 percent last year in his freshman season to 60.4 percent this year.
If he goes on to be as effective in the tournament as he was in the regular season, he might just go No. 1 overall.
5. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones, PF, Baylor
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I have to admit that I haven't followed the Toronto Raptors all that closely this season. This is because I prefer to do things with my time that aren't depressing, you see.
As far as what the Raptors are really missing this season, I don't think it's really all the that difficult to narrow it down: Chris Bosh, who is otherwise known as the third Heatle.
For lack of a better idea, I'm thinking finding a replacement for him would work to the Raptors' advantage.
Baylor power forward Perry Jones should do the trick. He may be a little inconsistent at times, but there's certainly no reason to take issue with what he brings to the table.
At 6'11" and 220 pounds, he's got a great frame to play the four at the pro level. He can leap with the best of 'em, and he runs the floor very well.
What's not to like?
6. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
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The Cavs made off well in that Baron Davis trade. Not only did they get a wily (albeit sometimes disinterested) veteran, but they also got the Clippers' first-round pick.
Having taken the best power forward in the draft in Jared Sullinger, they will now have a chance to grab one of the best small forwards in the country in North Carolina's Harrison Barnes.
I had Harrison Barnes going No. 1 overall in the mock I did back in August (seems a little silly now), but it's nice to know that I wasn't too far off. He's one of the best pure athletes in the country, and his basketball IQ is as good as anybody's.
He could stand to bulk up a little, and he needs to shoot better from beyond the arc, but these are things that can come with time.
So far, the rebuilding process is going quite well. A frontcourt of Barnes, Sullinger and J.J. Hickson is not bad. Not bad at all.
7. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey Nets): Jimmer Fredette, BYU
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Like the Cavaliers in the Baron Davis trade, the Utah Jazz made off pretty well in the trade that sent Deron Williams to the New Jersey Nets.
They got two good young players in Devin Harris and Derrick Favors, and they're going to have a high lottery pick as well.
With that lottery pick, I'm thinking they're going to go ahead and draft BYU sensation Jimmer Fredette. I have a sneaking suspicion nobody is going to agree with me, and for good reason. He doesn't project as a true one guard at the next level and he's too small to play the two.
Still, one thing we know about Jimmer is that he's a tremendous shooter and he's also smart as a whip. I suppose you could compare him to Stephen Curry, which is obviously a rather nice compliment.
Sold?
8. Golden State Warriors: Enes Kanter, C, Turkey
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As a resident of the Bay Area, one of the things I hear all the time is: "If only the Warriors had a true inside presence!"
This is because they need one, you see. Andris Biedrins just doesn't seem to be the answer, and I guess I'm just not sure about Ekpe Udoh as a starter.
To solve this quandary, how about Turkish center Enes Kanter? The whole Kentucky thing didn't exactly work out, but Kanter is still the best center prospect in the draft class.
He may be slightly undersized at 6'10," and he may not be the best athlete, but he's a tough, physical presence in the paint. He's not explosive, but he's crafty, and he can dish the ball pretty well.
If I'm the Warriors, the parts I like about Kanter are the "tough" and "physical" parts. This is something they currently don't have inside.
9. Detroit Pistons: Jonas Valanciunas, PF/C, Lithuania
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The Detroit Pistons may or may not be coming apart at the seams, but they're definitely more in danger of ending up at rock bottom than they are to suddenly soaring to bold new heights. There's lots of age on their roster, and a major youth movement is definitely in the cards.
I'm not so sure they would be overly willing to get a player from across the pond after the Darko Milicic debacle cost them players like Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. But Jonas Valanciunas is going to be the best prospect on the board by the time their pick rolls around.
Taking him is the best course of action, for good or ill.
Valanciunas is hardly a finished product. He's skinny, and he doesn't have much range, but three things he does have are length, intelligence and touch. Those are the kind of things you can't really teach and the rest can come with time.
10. Houston Rockets: Jordan Hamilton, G/F, Texas
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There's plenty to like about Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, but personally I'm not crazy about the rest of Houston's roster. Maybe I'm just a tough critic...
The Rockets will probably be looking for a proper heir apparent for Yao Ming at center. But in my opinion, there are better options available to them at this point in the draft than the players out there.
One of them is Texas' Jordan Hamilton. He's your prototypical guard/forward type. He may be a little selfish on occasion, but he's an outstanding shooter with all sorts of range.
Martin has the shooting guard position on lockdown, but I'm of the opinion that Hamilton would be a better option than Chase Budinger at the three.
11. Milwaukee Bucks: Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Diego State
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If this draft were to come to fruition, then I imagine the Milwaukee Bucks would be kicking themselves right here. The one thing they really need is a small forward and they would probably love to have a guy like Hamilton.
Nevertheless, I can see them drafting Kawhi Leonard out of San Diego State anyway. This is a bit of a reach given the fact that his offensive game is still developing, but athleticism alone makes him a project worthy of their time.
The reason Leonard is a bit of a project is mainly because he doesn't really have a perimeter game. Still, you can see that his three-point shooting percentage jumped from 20.5 percent as a freshman to 25.7 percent as a sophomore, so there's reason to believe there's something there.
12. Utah Jazz: Marcus Morris, F, Kansas
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Fredette could prove to be the only puzzle piece the Jazz are looking for in the draft, so I'm thinking they'll look to add depth when their next pick rolls around. The best idea would be for them to draft a combo forward, and I think Kansas' Marcus Morris fits the bill.
If the Jazz do take Morris, they will once again be reaching a little, but that's OK. As far as forwards go, Morris is as versatile as they come. He can rebound, handle the ball and knock 'em down from distance, so he would be fine coming off the bench.
Besides, let's not forget that Andrei Kirilenko is a free agent after next season, and my gut tells me he's going to go elsewhere. Having a player like Morris on the roster will then become doubly important.
13. Charlotte Bobcats: Donatas Motiejunas, PF/C, Lithuania
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The Charlotte Bobcats are one of those teams that make you go "WTF" every time you look at their roster. Indeed, just what kind of moron is running this team anyhow?
Oh...never mind. Love you, MJ.
Getting down to business, the fact of the matter is that having Kwame Brown penciled in as your starting center is never a happy prospect.
If the Bobcats do go for a big, Jan Vesely and John Henson are other possibilities, but Motiejunas works better because he's supposed to be a better post player than either of them.
He definitely needs to add some bulk, but the skill is there.
14. Phoenix Suns: John Henson, PF, North Carolina
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The Phoenix Suns are another team that needs young blood more than anything else, and there are a couple of positions where they could use it.
One of those isn't necessarily at the power forward position, but North Carolina's John Henson is probably worth their pick anyway. He's freakishly athletic and I would actually be surprised if he fell this far anyway.
Henson may be thin as a rail, but he has energy to burn. He accomplishes this mainly by blocking shots and grabbing boards, but he's creative in his scoring, too.
He doesn't have much of a perimeter game, but the other assets are enough to make him a promising prospect.
15. Indiana Pacers: Alec Burks, SG, Colorado
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The Indiana Pacers are one of those teams that could go any number of directions with their pick, but one of the guys I think would be a good fit for them is Colorado shooting guard Alec Burks.
Burks isn't much of a shooter, but he's the true definition of a slasher. He gets into the paint as well as anybody, and he has a number of finishing moves at his disposal once get gets to the basket.
Burks may not fit into Indiana's plans right away, but he could become a star with a little bit of seasoning.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Tristan Thompson, F, Texas
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The Philadelphia 76ers are at one of those weird crossroads where it's much easier to see them getting worse than it is to see them developing into true contenders, especially with the way the rest of the Eastern Conference is shaping up.
Oh well. When the draft rolls around, they could also go a number of different directions. One of the more intriguing options that will be there for the taking is Texas' Tristan Thompson.
He may be a little undersized for the four at 6'8," but his tremendous motor and versatility seem like the kind of things that would make him a fine sixth man.
However, it also wouldn't really surprise me if Thompson heads back to Texas for one more year of seasoning, so take this selection for what it's worth.
17. New York Knicks: Kemba Walker, PG, UConn
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The New York Knicks are a good point guard away from having a trio of players that can contend with the Miami Heat's Big Three any day of the week.
Down the line, that will probably be a role that Chris Paul ends up filling. But for the time being, I can definitely see them going after Connecticut's Kemba Walker in the draft.
Walker is obviously more of a scorer than an offensive facilitator, but at least he does the scoring part pretty well. He averaged 23.1 points during the regular season, and he shot the ball at better than a 42-percent clip.
He's a very explosive player, which will be greatly appreciated at the Garden. He's also a New York native, so he has that going for him, too.
18. Memphis Grizzlies: Jan Vesely, F, Czech Republic
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There's been no shortage of drama from the Memphis Grizzlies this season, but the good news is that they certainly have plenty of talent on their roster. One thing they could use is another big guy, and Jan Vesely offers plenty of dynamics that make him an attractive option.
Despite the fact he's 6'11," Vesely doesn't offer much in the way of a post-up game. What he does have are good ball-handling skills and plenty of shooting range.
A lot of people have Vesely going higher than I do, but I have a feeling his stock might slip a little once people start taking a closer look.
Still, he won't fall too far and the Grizzlies would be wise to grab him if he falls to them.
19. Portland Trail Blazers: Kenneth Faried, F, Morehead State
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The Portland Trail Blazers are a team that would look great on paper if they didn't have any injuries to deal with. As we all know, this is not the case.
Nevertheless, the Blazers don't need much. A simple role player will do and Morehead State's Kenneth Faried is one of the best the draft has to offer.
Faried is known for being one of the best rebounders in the country, a reputation he's earned by pulling down better than 13 rebounds per game in each of the last three seasons. He doesn't have much of a repertoire on offense, but he's just the kind of guy you want coming off the bench.
20. Charlotte Bobcats (from N.O. Via Port): Chris Singleton, SF, Florida State
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With Donatas Motiejunas already in the bag, the Bobcats can look to other areas of their roster. One of the things I think they could use is a swingman.
There won't be too many good ones at this point in the draft, but I think there are two possibilities.
One of the more intriguing options I can think of is Florida State's Chris Singleton.
Singleton does have some flaws. Streakiness is one of them, and he doesn't play well in the paint for a guy who is 6'9".
Nevertheless, he's athletic, he has a solid jumper and he's great in transition.
21. Denver Nuggets: Mason Plumlee, PF, Duke
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Carmelo Anthony brought the Denver Nuggets an underrated basket of new toys, and it's already apparent that they're not that much worse off without Melo.
One of the things they could use, however, is another big. Once the draft finds its way to their pick, the best guy available will be Duke's Mason Plumlee.
Plumlee is your garden-variety mobile, athletic big man. He's strong off the dribble and he's got good range on his jumper. He's solid on defense, he's good on the boards and he'll block a few shorts for you as well.
The problem with Plumlee is that his post game is a work in progress, and he doesn't have much bulk on him.
He's actually similar in most regards to Chris Andersen, but he probably has a better set of skills than Birdman does.
22. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Josh Selby, G, Kansas
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The Washington Wizards could end up getting themselves the best player in the draft in Derrick Williams, and one thing I think they could use is a good combo guard to spell John Wall and Nick Young.
The best man for the job at this point in the draft will be Kansas' Josh Selby. He's listed as a point guard, but he's more of a slasher and a shooter than he is a passer.
He gets to the rim very well and he's very tough once he gets inside the paint.
Selby's jumper can be inconsistent, but he has all the makings of a really good combo guard at the next level.
23. Oklahoma City Thunder: Markieff Morris, PF, Kansas
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are easily the best young team in the NBA and I think they have the goods to beat any challengers once they get to the playoffs.
That being said, their depth chart is a weird one, as it basically states that they don't have a backup three or a backup four. It's obviously not that simple, but it's still funny to behold.
Well, let's go ahead and assign them a forward anyway, shall we? At this point, the best player they're going to find is Kansas' Markieff Morris, twin brother of Marcus.
Markieff saw his minutes jump from 17.6 per game last season to 24.3 per game this season. He responded quite well, averaging 13.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
He's still developing as an offensive player, but he's good in the paint and solid on defense.
There are some out there who think that Markieff is actually the better pro prospect than Marcus at this point, so don't be surprised if he goes much higher than No. 23 on draft day.
24. Houston Rockets (from Orlando Via Phoenix): Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
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I suspect that there were quite a few people that balked at my first pick for the Rockets, and my guess is that some people stopped reading right then and there.
If they did, then they're missing my ace in the hole: Brazilian center Lucas Nogueira.
Nogueira is a seven-footer who is skinny and whose game is still quite raw, but he has an incredible motor and he's already an outstanding shot blocker. He can also be hell on the boards.
Unfortunately, there's not much in Nogueira's game in terms of offense, but he has the kind of talent that is only going to move him higher up big boards as we approach June.
25. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Knight, PG, Kentucky
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The Los Angeles Lakers may be too old, but they're still plenty good, thank you very much. I can't stand the buggers myself, but even I know when to show respect.
That being said, I have my doubts about the Lakers this season, and I don't think they're going to make it back to the NBA Finals.
When the draft does come around, the Lakers would do well to plan ahead for the long term. The best way to do that, in my opinion, is by drafting Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight.
This is admittedly lower than I expected Knight to go when I first embarked on this little project. He is, after all, a John Calipari point guard, which puts him in the same company as Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans and John Wall.
Nevertheless, Knight is not as talented as those guys are and the point has been made quite often that he might not be a true point guard.
Still, as a shoot-first guard, he's good. Making him Derek Fisher's understudy has its advantages in that it would: a) give him minutes, and b) give him the chance to learn from one of the craftiest veterans in the league.
I'm sure he'll be flopping like a fiend in no time.
26. Chicago Bulls: Nolan Smith, G, Duke
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The Chicago Bulls are easily the most underrated and under-appreciated team in the league at this very moment. Derrick Rose should be the MVP and there are few rosters around the league in which the individual pieces fit so well together as they do on the Bulls.
Nevertheless, with all respect to Luol Deng, their one weakness is that they really don't have another pure scorer who can take the pressure off Rose. I suspect some people might shout at me that their offense doesn't work that way. But hey, it can't hurt, am I right?
At this point in the first round, the Bulls are going to have to roll the dice on a player. As far as I'm concerned, Duke's Nolan Smith is a good gamble. He's a tweener, but you really have to like how much he's stepped up his game this season with Kyrie Irving out and Seth Curry coming on board.
He averaged better than 21 points per game and his excellent defensive tendencies would obviously fit well with the Bulls.
Smith is not going to come in and earn the starting job right away. Yet, you get the sense that he loves such challenges. With a bit of luck, he'll blossom.
27. Chicago Bulls (from Miami Via Toronto): Trey Thompkins, PF, Georgia
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Having secured a promising scorer, the next thing the Bulls should look to add is size off their bench. This is not to say they are short (no pun intended) in that department, as Taj Gibson and Omar Asik are solid. But as they say, overkill is underrated.
When it comes to power forwards the Bulls could choose with the pick, the two guys who jump out are NC State's C.J. Leslie and Georgia's Trey Thompkins. Neither of them had banner years this season, but I'm going to go ahead and side with Thompkins.
If nothing else, Thompkins is more experienced than Leslie, who is just a freshman. Nevertheless, Thompkins did take some steps in the wrong direction in his junior season.
His shooting went in the toilet and his body is still flabbier than scouts would like. The good news is that he's good in the post, and his overall body of work suggests that he can be an effective scorer at the next level.
28. Dallas Mavericks: Justin Harper, PF, Richmond
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I'm probably going to catch hell for saying this, but if the Bulls are the most under-appreciated team in the league, I guess that makes the Dallas Mavericks the best team that nobody cares about.
Does saying this have anything to do with who they're going to look to draft? Probably not, but I just felt I had to speak my mind.
Now then, the player I think fits with the Mavs is Richmond power forward Justin Harper. He's not projected as a first rounder at this stage, but the buzz surrounding his name is starting to build.
I guess this is what happens when a player nearly doubles his scoring average from his junior season to his senior season (10.6 to 18.0).
Harper also shot 47.9 percent from beyond the arc, which I think is a crime in most states, and certainly not bad for a 6'10" power forward.
The downside to Harper's game is that scouts think he's "soft," which is to say he shies away from contact and doesn't rebound as well as he should.
Yup, he's a Maverick.
29. Boston Celtics: Travis Leslie, SG, Georgia
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Now that I've made fun of the Mavericks, I may as well be honest about my own favorite team. In my opinion, and I think most diehard Celtics fans would agree, this season is a last hurrah. Here's hoping it ends well.
Personally, I'd love to see the C's go for a big man here. But short of North Carolina's Tyler Zeller, whose future would probably be much brighter with another year of seasoning, I'm not sure I see any.
Thus, I guess the Celtics will have to settle for Georgia's Travis Leslie, who could be the best dunker in the draft.
Leslie can't really do much of anything else and he's a little undersized for the two, but he's an exceptional athlete with a great motor.
If he can give Doc Rivers a little defense off the bench, I'm sure the Celtics would be glad to have him.
30. San Antonio Spurs: Khris Middleton, SF, Texas AM
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I'm not sure I buy the Spurs as favorites to win the NBA Finals, but they sure do have this whole regular-season thing down pretty good.
As far as what the Spurs need most, the answer is simple: youth. And they need it at a couple positions. Personally, I think they could use another forward, and I think Texas A&M's Khris Middleton should do the trick.
Middleton is starting to draw comparisons to Richard Hamilton which, roughly translated, means he's an underrated athlete with a great vision and an excellent mid-range game.
He's not all that great beyond the arc and he is definitely a skinny son of a gun, but you need not look any further to find a good swingman.
