Miami Heat: Which NBA Experts' Preseason Predictions Look the Best and Worst?
Calling the media a hype machine is putting it lightly.
Since the creation of the new media age, we as the population have been subject to the advances of receiving the world's daily events quicker and more efficiently than ever. Among the facts that we receive from outside sources, we also receive the opinions of analysts and experts that offer their spins of the situation at hand. The extensive research and close contact with people surrounding the story gives them the experts title, and therefore we receive their thoughts.
When Chris Bosh and LeBron James joined up with Dwyane Wade in Miami, every media outlet from ESPN to CNN gave their spin and opinion on what they thought of this new super team and how it affected the league.
The idea of bringing Bosh and James to Miami is a spinoff of what Boston pulled off during the 2007 offseason when they brought in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play alongside Paul Pierce. Since the Heat brought in Bosh and James, other teams such as the Knicks have pulled off coups in an attempt to strengthen their team by signing three All-stars and then using the limited funds to sign a supporting cast.
However, the signing of Bosh and James was different than any other signing in NBA history. It represented the first time in NBA history that three players in their primes would come together on the same team in an attempt for a shot at glory. It goes against the traditional method of the league when the best players would compete against each other in an attempt to win the championship. Many past players have openly come out against the big three, with some claiming that it was the easy way out for James and Bosh.
Since these three came together, we have heard just about every analyst's take on the situation. ESPN even created The Heat Index, an entire section of its website based on the Miami Heat's daily activities. Some analysts thought the Heat would have a bright future, while others looked at the other side of the spectrum, considering that the team would have prominent chemistry issues that might affect the outcome of this experiment.
Either way, every analyst from every media outlet openly came out and stated what they thought of Pat Riley and his coup. A number of analysts got it right on the money, while others couldn't have been further away. The Heat are at 43-19, and from the way the media portrays the team's progress, you would think they were far out of the postseason.
The media hyped the Heat at the beginning of the season, and now the team pays for it with its struggles.
Best: J.A. Adande
1 of 10
Analysis
"Rash of preseason injuries a good reminder that this won't happen instantly for them. It took two years when Shaq arrived and it will take two years for this group's ascent to greatness."
Prediction
Second in Southeast and second in Eastern Conference.
You may remember J.A. Adande as one of the talking heads from Around the Horn on ESPN. When asked about how the Miami Heat would play going into the the 2010-'11 season with their new team, Adande amongst the countless number of analysts might have given one of the most accurate responses into how the team would pan out. Unlike most who believed that immediate success would be in the Heat's near future, Adande looked at a similar situation the Heat faced a few years prior in their franchise's history.
The LeBron James and Chris Bosh signings are soon to be more important and vital signings in the long run, but the signing of Shaquille O'Neal was similar as it also required a process and a few changes to give the Heat their first championship. In their first season together, Wade and Shaq won 59 games, but it became apparent in the conference finals that it was going to take more than the Dwyane and Shaq duo to win a title. Miami brought in veterans James Posey, Jason Williams and Gary Payton to take the burden off the young Wade and the aging O'Neal.
While time and experience is key within the organization and winning a title in the near future, the preseason injuries, as well as the early regular season injuries, have shown that success comes to those who wait. Miami has had a rash of injuries over the seasons that stemmed from Wade pulling up lame in the first few minutes of their first preseason game, to Mike Miller injuring his thumb in a freak accident during shoot around and finally ending with Udonis Haslem suffering the most serious injury of his career in November that has still kept him from playing.
Adande hit the nail on the head with his analysis of the Heat, and his statistical prediction of where the Heat would finish would be correct if he didn't believe that the Orlando Magic would turn into the Eastern Conference's best team.
Worst: Chad Ford
2 of 10
Analysis
"All of the concerns about chemistry are going to disappear in a few weeks. The most surprising thing is the depth the team managed to piece together— the Heat will have a weakness in the middle, but their strength everywhere else gives them a terrific shot at winning it all."
Prediction
First in Southeast and First in Eastern Conference.
ESPN.com's Chad Ford knew amongst countless other analysts and critics that chemistry would be the main factor in the Heat's future success. Why wouldn't it be? The Heat had two players with nearly the exact same style of play that needed to have the ball in their hands to score, as well as a power forward who could hardly be regarded as a low-post threat. Even then, it would have been hard to believe that wins wouldn't come with ease to a team that featured three of the top 15 players in the league.
At 43-19 and with a recent string of disappointing and embarrassing losses, it has been all too certain that chemistry and cohesion have been some of the biggest issues of the regular season for the Heat in their losses. The offense has become one of the Heat's biggest weaknesses, as they go through too many periodical stretches of moments of no scoring.
Take for example their recent loss to Orlando. They were able to score at will when Wade and James' jump shots were falling in the first half, but they couldn't manage any type of consistent flow in the second half to pull out a win despite building up a 24-point lead.
Ford pointed out that the weakness in the middle could affect the team, but that their overall talent would help the team secure championship glory. While he was correct in saying that the lack of a presence in the middle would hurt the team, it has been painfully obvious that the Heat's lack of a capable point guard has affected the outcomes of games. From Rajon Rondo to Derrick Rose, Miami has been beaten over and over again by elite point guards who dictate the offense through penetration and a lack of a strong defensive point guard on the Heat's side.
Best: Chris Sheridan
3 of 10
Analysis
"Apologies to Jeff Van Gundy, but I see 66 wins as their max. In a playoff matchup with Boston, I'll pick the C's. Q: When was the last time LeBron led his team to a major win? Don't say the 2008 Olympics, because he disappeared in the fourth quarter against Spain. A better choice would be 2006: Game 5 against Detroit."
Prediction
First in Southeast and First in Eastern Conference.
Talk about premonition. The entire past two weeks have been filled with nothing but disappointment on the part of LeBron James in late game situations. James was handed the last shot in the Heat's losses to Chicago and New York, and was then given the gift of a wide open three-point attempt near the end of the Orlando game that would have sent it into overtime. LeBron missed the game-tying or game-winning shot attempt in each game, causing the Heat to lose each time.
The blame shouldn't be put on James for his inability to hit the big shot, as it should have been Dwyane Wade taking the shot each time. We shouldn't take anything away from James' ability to be clutch in key moments, but the Heat should probably instead look towards the player who won them an NBA title five years ago to win them games when a last shot is needed. Wade has more buzzer-beating game winners and has had much more of an impact in helping his team win games during close games.
Ford also got it correct with the prediction of the team possibility playing the Celtics in the postseason. In the teams three matchups with each other, the Celtics had moments where they plain took over the game. The first two games were mostly nothing but the Celtics running the show, but even in the third matchup where the Heat went into halftime with the lead, they still went through the same issues that had hampered them all season.
Miami's inability to compete and defeat the elite teams of the league has been their Achilles heel all year, and it's going to be interesting come playoff time when Miami has to face the tough teams of the league in order to secure the championships that they promised.
Worst: Chris Broussard
4 of 10
Analysis
"It may take a few weeks to work out the kinks, but once the Heat get rolling, it's on. Dwyane Wade will lead them in scoring and Chris Bosh may even score more than LeBron James. But LeBron will bring it all together by playing like a PG and averaging a near triple-double. Heat D will be wicked."
Prediction
First in Southeast and First in Eastern Conference.
This one might have been on the fence, but the fact that Chris Broussard stated that Chris Bosh might average more points than LeBron James was absurd enough to put him into the worst list. Even if we wanted to believe that James was the reincarnation of Magic Johnson and was set to run the point, it still would have been hard to believe Bosh as a higher scorer than a player like James, who relies on scoring as a focal point of his game.
In fact, James running the point has been a problem that the team didn't expect to face. With the ball in his hands, there are too many stretches of Cleveland ball, which translates to James dictating the offense and four players with their arms by their sides waiting to see what trick the magician will do next. So rather than seeing a fluent, consistent offense with ball movement, player movement and cuts to the basket, we see James pounding the ball and looking for a seam to either drive or to kick out to one of his waiting teammates.
It's no way for an offense to be run, especially when one of the best slashers in the league is one of those players waiting to receive the ball. No team has won a championship without quality ball or player movement, and the Heat are going to learn that a few months from now if they don't make some serious changes to the offense in the near future. James may be averaging somewhat near that fabled triple-double at 26 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, but it hasn't exactly translated to the consistency the team had hoped for.
As for Broussard stating it would take a few weeks to work out the kinks, the Heat are still trying to work out a whole lot more than just kinks.
Best: Brian Windhorst
5 of 10
Analysis
"Their margin of error most nights will be large because they have three stars who can win games by themselves. Growing pains or not, they should pile up a large win total. But the uncertainty at center, plus unfamiliarity with stars' roles does leave them with a weak spot or two, just to make things interesting."
Prediction
First in Southeast and First in Eastern Conference.
Probably the most well educated of the Miami Heat due to being the team's top analyst on ESPN.com, Brian Windhorst probably has the most accurate preseason prediction of just about any other esteemed analyst. He addresses the issues of growing pains affecting the team and the idea that sheer talent alone will win them a plethora of games, which has become vividly true. It has become clear that James, Wade and Bosh can win games by themselves as they have scored over 90 percent of their team's points in a number of instances.
It isn't exactly the healthiest way to win games, but it's done the job, so there's no use arguing over something that isn't broken and shouldn't be fixed. However, one of Windhorst's main points puts the 2010-'11 season thus far into a nutshell. He addresses the issue at center and how it will affect the team, but he also realizes just how the team could be affected in a negative light due to each player adjusting to their new role on their new-look team. With Wade, James and Bosh joined up, each player sacrificed being the center of attention on their respective team in return for a championship.
Egos haven't played too large a role thus far, but the players adjusting to the new roles on their team have greatly affected their games. James and Wade are still in the process of learning how to play off the ball (hopefully Mike Bibby can help), and Bosh is still learning how to get involved in an offense where he is the third option. A process that was believed to be easy and simple by most has turned into a complex and difficult situation where no one has won yet from the result of the offseason.
Worst: Jeff Van Gundy
6 of 10
Analysis
"I don't know if I said they will or they have a great chance, whatever I said, I just think if they're healthy, the discrepancy between their talent level and and the next level is so great, that I just don't see how they lose games. I think they're that good."
Prediction
First place forever.
A bit hasty there, Jeff? We knew the team would eventually evolve into greatness, but Jeff Van Gundy went above and beyond with his preseason prediction of how well the team would play this season and in the years to come. Van Gundy is correct in saying that the Heat's talent level far exceeds any other teams, but as a legitimate analyst he should realize that talent doesn't always translate to success.
Wade and James are two of the most athletic players in the league and are one and two in fast break points, yet the team has had its fair share of struggles over the past few months. Jeff might have been going for the shock value with his prediction, but it doesn't exactly spell out the workings of a legitimate analyst who knew what he was talking about when he actually envisioned the team playing together. He would one-up himself by saying that the Heat had the potential to top the 1995-'96 Chicago Bulls record for wins and the 1971-'72 Los Angeles Lakers record for most consecutive wins.
They certainly aren't breaking the Bulls record any time soon, and the Heat barely came halfway to the Lakers' 33-game stretch of wins. In time, we might be able to look to this Heat team as one of the greatest of all time when they actually develop chemistry and run a more consistent offense.
For now though, this team has far fewer expectations than beating NBA records that have been standing for years. Finding out what the problem has been for this team would be a good start, and maybe then the team can look towards winning championship and snapping records that have appeared nearly impossible to top.
Best: John Hollinger
7 of 10
Analysis
Yes, the Heat still have to prove it on the court. On paper, however, this appears to be one of the best teams ever assembled. If the Big Three of James, Wade and Bosh stay healthy, the only team that can beat them is the one in the mirror."
Prediction
First in Southeast and First in Eastern Conference.
The master of stats that don't matter, John Hollinger had a correct premonition of what was to come for this newly formed Heat team. While most us were pining away for a chance to see this juggernaut of a team in action, Hollinger realized that so far, the potential of this team was only on paper and had yet to be translated on the court. He is correct when he states that this is probably one of the best teams ever assembled on paper, and he is also correct when he says they have to prove it on the court.
They haven't exactly proven themselves or their critics wrong as they blow huge leads against some of the league's best teams. The problems and struggles of this team are so prominent and obvious sometimes that it makes the team sickening and gut wrenching to watch. The worst part of the recent stretch of losses, and all the losses for that matter, is that the outcomes come mostly as a result of the team beating itself. Time after time, the team takes a lead only to see it dwindle away within minutes.
So, how does a 24-point lead evaporate within a quarter's worth of basketball? All you have to do is watch how the Heat play when they obtain these leads. Instead of attacking the rim, drawing fouls and taking the game one possession at a time, Miami will instead take knockout punch three-pointers, play lazy defense and not take care of the ball. It's instances and mistakes like this that championship teams only seldom make and so far, the Heat have done it three times in a little over a week.
Miami is completely capable of beating the Boston's or the Chicago's of the league, but the Heat just need to beat themselves first.
Worst: Tim Legler
8 of 10
Analysis
"Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have been banged up the past few years. There will be times when only one or two of the big three are healthy. They have three guys who can all carry the offense. They have all the offense you need. Now it's a matter of whether they will be good enough defensively."
Prediction
Second in Southeast and fourth in Eastern Conference.
Tim Legler wasn't exactly the optimist of the group when it came to predicting how well this team would pan out. In fact, he gave the Heat one of the worst records amongst all NBA analysts as he had them as low as fourth in the Eastern Conference, while also giving the Orlando Magic another Southeast Division title as well. His analysis wasn't exactly the most accurate either as it turns out the offense that was all there, hasn't.
In fact, the defense has been the least of the team's worries, as it's only when we see the team play off their defenders and over-exert themselves on help defense when they struggle on that side of the ball. On the offensive side of the spectrum, the Heat have had way too many struggles for a team that has two of the top three scorers in the league and another player who is averaging over 18 points per game. The problem has been the inconsistency on the offensive end when the team goes through lapses that last over extended periods of time.
Either it's due to a player dominating the ball, the team not making enough of an effort to attack the rim or a lack of movement amongst the team that contributes to the team's lack of offensive prowess over a 48-minute period. Legler was correct in saying that the big three can carry the offense and help the team win games, but it hasn't exactly translated to the success that the team had hoped for. In case Legler didn't realize, basketball is a team game and no team has ever had three players win a championship by themselves.
Best: Michael Wallace
9 of 10
Analysis
"The Heat made championship moves with free-agency additions of reigning two-time MVP LeBron James and five-time All-Star Chris Bosh to join catalyst Dwyane Wade in South Florida. Miami celebrated that summer coup as if it won a title in July. Anything less than a Finals berth is a failure."
Prediction
First in Southeast and first in Eastern Conference.
Anything less than a Finals berth being a failure might be the one of the strongest predictions in the history of sports, but when it came down to the way the Heat hyped themselves up prior to the start of the season with talks of winning multiple championships, Miami was asking for it when preseason predictions had them winning a championship before the season even started. Not to mention, the Heat were supposed to win a championship despite not playing one game together outside of an All-Star game or the Olympics.
ESPN's Michael Wallace hit it dead on with his analysis of the team's celebratory introduction of their big three. They came out as if they had just won a decade's worth of titles and talked a big game as if they were prepared to take their team to the promised land over and over again. In a cascade of cheers, smoke machines and Pharaoh Monche's "Simon Says", the big three arrived in front of their audience for the first time and talked a game that they have yet to back up.
While we should have realized that the team would have some obvious growing pains and adjustments to make, they did hype themselves up as the team to beat for the 2010-'11 campaign. When you address your fans for the first time by saying that the team is set to win multiple championships, there will be obvious disappointment when you come into the season and lay an egg by getting blown out in your season opener and still finding tweaks to make 60 games into the first season together.
Worst: Marc Stein
10 of 10
Analysis
"Any issues that the SuperFriends have dealing with opposition size should be mitigated by the fact that the Heat will be ridiculously hard to guard...at least until they have to deal with the Lakers in the Finals. They have to be the East favorites, crowded as the conference is at the top."
Prediction
First in Southeast and first in Eastern Conference.
Marc Stein wasn't too off with his analysis of the Miami Heat at the beginning of the season, but it still wasn't the most accurate of responses. He, like many others, envisioned the team in a dream matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers in the championship that would have pitted the three top players in the league on the same court.
It certainly is nice to dream, but it's not going to happen any time soon with the way each has played this season. Stein addressed the problem of the Heat having issues as far as size goes, and countered that with the fact that the Heat would be difficult to guard since the big three would not only create open shots for themselves, but for teammates as well, since the three attract so much attention. Coming into the season, that would have been an excellent diagnosis.
Most of the time, the members of the supporting cast do find themselves wide open, but seldom hit the shots. It makes the team miss its most reliable mid-range threat in Udonis Haslem, and it also continually addresses the issue of the team's lack of consistency on both ends of the floor. Players like James Jones and Eddie House are feast or famine players who are either hitting every shot they take or unable to hit the ocean from a boat.
The team's most consistent deep threat in Mike Miller is still attempting to find himself as a part of the rotation, as he becomes missed more and more in late game situations when the team needs a volatile three-point threat.
