Houston Rockets: Do They Need an Offseason Firesale or a Gradual Rebuild?

For years, the Rockets have always had some preseason excitement to entice the fans into believing that this was the year that the team could be a championship contender. There were the Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming years for most of the last decade, the trio of Ron Artest and those two aforementioned stars and this year promised the return of Yao to rejoin a stellar group of role players.

Next year, there is little to indicate that the Rockets will be looking at any fate except for perhaps an early playoff exit without some major change. While a free-agent big man might help the cause, the team is going to need make other changes before anybody starts to consider them serious contenders.

With that in mind, should the Rockets completely rebuild or look to simply make minor adjustments, hoping to bide their time until their young players develop?

While the likeliest scenario involves a series of minor moves rather than a complete rebuild, the unfortunate fate of the Rockets is that they desperately need to rebuild. Some teams have been able to build upon what they have to construct a championship contender, but the Rockets do not have the pieces to go in that direction.

Every championship team in recent memory (except for perhaps the 2004 Detroit Pistons) has had a go-to player who is a top-five player in the league. If the Rockets' goal is championship contention (as every team's goal should be), they will have to have a superstar on that level.

Looking at the current roster, there is nobody who looks like they could develop into that kind of player. With Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson and Hasheem Thabeet, the Rockets have numerous young players who could develop into very good players, but lack the prospect who could be a superstar. Among current starters, only Kevin Martin could be considered close to that level, but his defense will always keep him from becoming anything more than a complementary player.

For these reasons, the Rockets must position themselves to acquire a superstar. While adding players in free agency is a quick way to get a star, Houston's appeal is seemingly at an all-time low right now, requiring the Rockets to build through the draft.

Fortunately enough, the Rockets are already positioned favorably in future years for the draft, with five first-round picks over the next three years. Those picks will be helpful, but none appears likely to be a high lottery pick, exactly what the Rockets need.

To get these picks, the Rockets will unfortunately have to make some tough sacrifices. Because of his bulky contract and his age, Luis Scola does not have much of a role on a rebuilding team. Because he could be tremendously valuable to a contender, teams will be willing to give up a great deal for him despite the three years remaining on his contract after this year (and one more non-guaranteed year). 

Martin and Kyle Lowry are the two players who would be toughest to give up. Both young and signed to reasonable contracts, they would certainly look good as the backcourt of the future in Houston. However, seeing as the team is likely going nowhere for a few years, Martin and his tremendous scoring should be traded. Lowry should stay because point guards who pass and defend like him are huge for a championship contender. 

With Scola and Martin's contracts of the books, the Rockets are to sign stop-gaps to short contracts so that the Rockets do not have to bear a horrific rebuilding process. In a league that is the easiest to build a contending team if you are committed to a rebuilding effort, the Rockets must go down that difficult road and recognize that what they are doing is not going to bring anything significant back to Houston.

Looking at the up-and-coming teams in the West like Memphis and Oklahoma City, it is easy to see how quickly a team can reap the rewards of their labor. In just two or three years, the Rockets could be on the upswing again, and in a couple more, they could be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.

However, if they do not rebuild, they could be stuck in the jaws of mediocrity for the next decade, a fate that Houston fans surely do not want.