Kobe Bryant vs. Tim Duncan: Which Future Hall of Famer Breaks Down First?
Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan are two of this eras greatest players. They have won nine NBA Championships between them, and both have a great shot to win another one this season. They are two of the best to ever play their respective position.
But who will break down first? Which one will become a shell of their former self first?
There are intriguing cases to be made on both sides. It really comes down to what your own personal definition of "breaking down" is.
Kobe Bryant came into the NBA right out of high school. Tim Duncan went through four years of college before jumping to the NBA. Does that have any bearing on who will be the first to break down?
Will it be Kobe or Timmy who is finished first?
Reason No. 1 For Kobe: He's an Old 32
1 of 11
Kobe Bryant is 32 years old. Normally, that would be the prime of a player's career, but Bryant came into the league when he was 17, which means he has been a professional for 15 years. That's a lot of wear and tear on the body.
As great as Bryant is, every player only has a finite amount of games in them, and he has played in at least 1,400 games including the playoffs, which doesn't bode well for him lasting a lot longer at his current level of play.
Reason No. 1 For Duncan: He Is 34 Years Old
2 of 11
Tim Duncan went through four years of playing college basketball and then he came into the NBA. While he has one less year of professional experience than Kobe, his total number of college games pushes him above Kobe in terms of total games played throughout their playing career.
Duncan, at 34-years-old, is past the prime playing age for an NBA player. He will likely break down at some point, sooner than later.
Reason No. 2 For Kobe: Extra Playoff Games
3 of 11
Both the Lakers and Spurs have won a lot since Kobe and Duncan have been in the league, which means that they have both played in a lot of playoff games.
Kobe has played 203 postseason games, the equivalent of 2.5 regular season games. In reality, while Kobe is listed as a 15-year NBA veteran, he is closer to 18 years in terms of games played.
Don't underestimate the number of playoff games that Kobe has played in when thinking about how much time he has left playing.
Reason No. 2 For Duncan: He Is Averaging A Career Low In Points
4 of 11
While scoring isn't necessarily the best measure of a player breaking down, the drop off in Duncan's scoring this year has been quite drastic. He is averaging 13.5 points per game this season, down significantly from his career average of 20.7.
In fact, his scoring has gone down each of the last five years. The Spurs are still winning, so it's not a big deal, but the fact that his offensive production has fallen is a telling sign.
Reason No. 3 For Kobe: He Has Had To Carry the Load For the Lakers
5 of 11
As great as Tim Duncan has been throughout his career, he has had a lot of help from guys like David Robinson, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Meanwhile, Kobe had Shaq when he first came into the NBA, but Kobe took over as the leader of the team somewhere during the Lakers three-peat between 1999 and 2001. He has tried, and succeeded, in carrying the load for this franchise for the better part of the last decade.
While Kobe does thrive on it, that kind of pressure can wear someone down rather quickly.
Reason No. 3 For Duncan: His Performance Defensively Has Slipped
6 of 11
Tim Duncan still gets around two blocks per game, which is right around his career average, but in other categories he has fallen off a little bit.
This season, Duncan is averaging 6.8 defensive rebounds per game and 9.2 total rebounds per game. If that number holds, this will be the first season in his career in which he hasn't averaged at least 10 rebounds per game.
His defensive skills and prowess have really slipped as he has gotten older and slower. He still has good instincts, but his other skills have decreased sharply over the last few years.
Reason No. 4 for Kobe: He Can't Involve Other Players In the Offense
7 of 11
People like to compare Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant all the time. I think they do it just to try and find anyone who can knock Jordan off of his perch as the greatest player of all-time. But when you stop to think about it, the comparison isn't warranted at all.
Jordan wanted to get other players involved because he knew that was the best way to win a championship.
Kobe will get his teammates involved, but he does it almost begrudgingly. He wants to take every shot that he possibly can. It's worked well for him for a long time, but at some point his skills aren't going to be there and he will have to rely on others.
Tim Duncan has mastered the art of being a superstar player who gets everyone else involved.
Kobe needs to trust other players more because it will help extend his career, just look at what it's done for Duncan and the Spurs.
Reason No. 4 For Duncan: He Is Already Showing Signs Of Breaking Down
8 of 11
Duncan, in addition to his career-lows in points and rebounds, is averaging a career-worst 29 minutes per game. In his career, he has averaged 36 minutes per game. The fact that he is playing almost seven minutes less than his career averages is a sign that he needs to be protected.
Given the Spurs success this year, they can afford to rest Duncan as much as they need because they know that they will only get to the Finals with him. Still, he is not playing as much as one would think a superstar player should be playing.
Reason No. 5 For Kobe: What's Going To Happen To Him Without Phil Jackson?
9 of 11
Kobe Bryant hasn't always played under Phil Jackson, but the greatest success that he has had in his career has come with Jackson as his coach.
In fact, when Jackson wasn't coaching the Lakers, Kobe was seen as a pariah in the eyes of the fans. I understand that there were extenuating circumstances, but still we don't know what will happen to Kobe when Jackson retires at the end of the season.
Reason No. 5 For Duncan: He Is Only the Third Best Player On the Spurs Today
10 of 11
Tim Duncan is no longer the best player on his own team. Part of that is because Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are both very good players. Part of that is because Duncan's game has taken a lot of steps back this year, and really he hasn't been the same player since 2008-09.
Kobe Bryant has been, and will continue to be, the best player on the Lakers. They have acquired a lot of depth, too, with guys like Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but Kobe is still the man in Los Angeles.
Duncan is no longer the man for San Antonio. They do need him to win a championship, but not as much as they once did. He is one of the best power forwards of all-time and a future hall of famer, but he is not the player he once was.
Conclusion: Tim Duncan Will Break Down Before Kobe Bryant
11 of 11
Tim Duncan is still doing a lot of great things. In fact, he is still one of the top 10 power forwards in the NBA, but he is not the player that he once was. Part of that is the team that he plays for doesn't need him to be that kind of guy to win, but part of that is due to his limited ability given his age.
Kobe Bryant is still one of the two or three best players in the NBA and, barring some epic fall from grace, will be for the next two years at least.
You can see the end is nearing for Duncan. There is no indication that Kobe is getting close to the end of his career.
For that, Duncan is the "winner" in this particular case.
