NBA Trade Deadline 2011 Aftermath: How Close Are Warriors to Being Playoff Team?
As the superstars of the NBA trade deadline give way to the has-beens and never-will-bes of the NBA buyout period, the landscape of the league continues to see some dramatic changes.
Unfortunately for Golden State Warriors fans, their team remains virtually the same from opening night despite the movement around them.
This is not a championship-caliber roster; the players, the front office, even the fans know that. Realistically this is, at best, a borderline playoff team incapable of being more than the sacrificial lamb to one of the Western Conference's elite.
For all intents and purposes, their playoff hopes are still technically alive with 23 games remaining on the schedule. But back-to-back losses at Minnesota and Indiana are hardly the way to kick off a crucial seven-game road trip.
Regardless of where they finish in the standings, this Warriors team is far from anything resembling greatness. There are questions surrounding the new owners, the front office, the rookie coach, even the stars of the team. No one is sure just how good (or bad) this team really is, due to inconsistencies in play and injuries to key players.
But all is not lost for the Warriors faithful. There is a glimmering light at the end of this tunnel. There is a blueprint for success for owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber to follow. By following these five steps (and with enough patience during the process), the Golden State Warriors have a chance to join the NBA's elite.
Step 1: Find an Identity
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The Golden State Warriors were many things under former coach Don Nelson: frustrating, exciting, offensively gifted, defensively challenged, (mildly) successful. But these elements were all components of Nelson's coaching style.
Whether you loved him or hated him, you could not deny the man's consistency.
Under first-year head coach Keith Smart (Nelson's protege), the Warriors have been anything but consistent. The team is young enough that some of the inconsistencies can be chalked up to growing pains.
At the same time, this team is too talented, and not all that young in terms of NBA experience, to simply brush aside this up-and-down play.
The biggest problem for the Warriors has been finding a new identity under Keith Smart.
General manager Larry Riley spent the offseason revamping the team's roster in an effort to move away from the small-ball era. While some moves have more than paid off (specifically Dorell Wright), others (notably David Lee) seem to fit Nelson's schemes better than they fit a team attempting to convince the NBA that they are a defensive club.
Smart preached defense to start the year and while the team's defensive statistics improved, they struggled to score enough to win some of those games. With a roster full of mostly leftovers from Nelson's stay, Smart has since embraced the run-and-gun style. But now the team lacks the depth and firepower of past Warriors teams to consistently outscore opponents.
Lacob and Gruber need to decide if they want to be a defensive club, an offensive machine or a balanced team. They need to decide if they are truly comfortable building around a backcourt in which both starters stand under 6'4''.
It's impossible to start grabbing the pieces of the puzzle when those pieces are just random parts of different puzzles. Once an identity has been found, then the franchise is ready for Step 2.
Step 2: Evaluate the Coaching Staff and Front Office
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While Lacob and Guber were undoubtedly looking forward to the end of the season for other reasons, they still have to be eager to begin their first full offseason as NBA owners.
With unanimous approval of their purchase not coming until mid-November, the two had little choice but to keep the current front office in tact.
After this season's end, that will no longer be the case. The two can decide if Riley, Smart, team president Robert Rowell and the rest of the front office are worthy of keeping on the payroll.
The task will not be an easy one. Riley has made good moves (Wright), questionable ones (Lee's contract looks worse and worse as the season progresses) and, simply, moves (Acie Law, Lou Amundson). It will be interesting to see if Riley's inability to make any real moves at the trade deadline will hinder his chances to serve the Bay Area again next year.
As for Smart, time will tell if he's given more than this one-year trial. His contract can't leave much room for comfort and the team's play on the floor has done nothing to increase that comfort.
As far as the rest of the front office, the biggest hope for Warriors fans is that Lacob and Guber can find a staff 100-percent committed to their philosophies. The organization needs an overhaul in terms of its image around the league and that starts with bringing in the right people to run the ship.
Once Lacob and Guber have their staff in place, Step 3 brings them that much closer to elite status.
Step 3: Attack the Free Agent Market to Find Their Players
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While having the right mentality and the right executives to abide by it are all well and good, these intangibles have no influence on the on-court performance without the right players.
And, perhaps more importantly, those players (the team is more than one player away from reaching new heights) have to fit into what's expected to be a tighter salary cap under the new CBA.
With $20 million scheduled to come off of the books, the Warriors would seemingly be in a position to sign some free agents even if the salary cap decreases. But it's in this area that Riley (or whoever the general manager is next season) needs to work the value end of the free agents to find players to fill specific needs on the team.
According to team salaries listed on www.hoopshype.com, the Warriors have the 16th-highest payroll in the NBA (shades under $67 million). Of the 15 teams with higher payrolls, only two (Milwaukee and Toronto) have worse records than Golden State.
In other words, this organization has not shied away from spending money, but they just don't get great returns on that spending.
But here is where the grass would appear greener for Warriors fans. This free-agent class (with the prized piece, Carmelo Anthony, happily back in New York) is light on star power but heavy on role players.
Should the Warriors choose to go back to being a run-and-gun team, instant-offense players such as Jamal Crawford, J.R. Smith and Jason Richardson are all set to become free agents this summer.
Should the Warriors assume this defensive identity they've talked so much about, defensive bigs like Glen Davis, Tyson Chandler, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Samuel Dalembert could all be free agents this summer.
If the Warriors play it conservatively and want a good return on a two-way player, Delonte West, Caron Butler, Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler and Carl Landry could all contribute for the team next season.
With a few solid additions and a nice showing in Step 4, this team could be near the top soon.
Step 4: Find a Gem in the NBA Draft
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Like most teams in the NBA, the Warriors have handled the draft as sort of a crap shoot. They've hit (Monta Ellis and Gilbert Arenas both in the second round), they've missed (Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy both in the top five) and they've missed badly (if they draft ninth, all Warriors fans can do is pray.
Their last two picks at No. 9 have been big men (Patrick O'Bryant and Ike Diogu).
As much NBA Developmental League gold as the Warriors have struck (C.J. Watson, Kelenna Azubuike, Reggie Williams), some might assume that the Warriors have the best scouts in the league.
Then again, this team has hardly been the model of consistency in the draft, and the Warriors have essentially acquired the same player in three of the last four drafts (Brandan Wright, Anthony Randolph, Ekpe Udoh).
With thhe fact that the team's biggest free-agent signing since 2000 was David Lee, it's obvious that this team needs a to strike gold in the draft to acquire a superstar.
Although this draft is supposed to be one of the weakest in history (seems that we've heard that the last few seasons), there are potential steals for the Warriors should they end up in the lottery.
North Carolina's Harrison Barnes seems to be the name screaming of potential on this list. The first-ever freshman to be named a preseason All-American, Barnes has been slightly less productive than advertised (13.8 points on 40-percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds), but there's a reason he was rated so highly coming out of Ames, Iowa.
At 6'8'', 215 pounds, Barnes could instantly provide relief at the shooting guard and small forward positions, allowing them to eventually dangle Monta Ellis or Dorell Wright should he hit his potential.
If Barnes is off the board, other mid-round, high-potential players like Barnes' teammate, power forward John Henson, small forwards Chris Singleton (Florida State) and Kawhi Leonard (San Diego State) and point guard Brandon Knight (Kentucky) all have the potential to blossom into something greater and contribute as early as next season.
Step 5: Confidence in the Organization
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With so much talk from Lacob and Riley about the need for this team to add players, it's not hard to assume that this team struggled with confidence throughout the season.
And after the buildup to last Thursday's trade deadline left the team with nothing more than a second-round draft pick and some financial flexibility, the team's confidence appears to be dwindling.
It seems as though the team was waiting for the missing pieces to come in and help them with this tough stretch run. Now the realization that this group of players is going to have to shoulder the load themselves appears to be weighing on the team, given their sluggish performances of late.
An established identity would allow every person in the organization to be on the same page and believe in that identity. The right front office executives will bring the right coach. The right coach will benefit from acquiring the right players to execute the team's plan.
And all of these steps combined must lead to a group of players confident that they belong among the NBA's elite.
This team will no longer strive for a playoff position. The Warriors will look to host playoff rounds.
