Chicago Bulls: Five Reasons They'll Beat Out the Miami Heat for Second Seed
The Chicago Bulls have been chasing down the Miami Heat for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. It could be a critical seeding. The United Center has proven to be a tough place to play this season, and the two teams are headed for a second round series for the ages.
As of right now the teams are even in the loss column with 17 apiece, though the Heat have won two more games than the Bulls. As a result they stand one game ahead of Chicago in the standings. The question is, as we head down the last quarter of the season, can the Bulls catch them or will the Heat hold them off?
I believe the Bulls will finish the season with the second seed. In the following slides, I'll give you my reasons why.
The Bulls Own the Tiebreaker
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When the Heat fell to the Knicks on Sunday night, they fell into a tie in the loss column with the Bulls. This was a critical matter as the Bulls, based on their clinching the season series last Thursday, own the tie-breaker against Miami.
If the Bulls and Heat finish with the same record, the Bulls get the second seed. Therefore the Heat need the Bulls to lose one more game than they do. The Heat's present one game advantage is a technicality of having won more games because they've played more games. (This assumes the Bulls win those two games, but more on that later.)
While the Heat technically have the lead, they also have the onus to finish with a better record. The Bulls can be content with merely catching the Heat. They don't need to pass them.
Scheduling Favors the Bulls
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With a record of 6-3 against the top five teams in the NBA the Bulls are tied with the Celtics for the best record in the NBA. By contrast the Heat are 0-7. That's pretty significant since they face the Spurs twice before the season ends. That's not the only scheduling advantage the Bulls have over the Heat though.
Looking at the remaining schedules of each team, there are 13 common opponents, while the Bulls have nine unique opponents and the Heat have seven. By unique opponents I mean either teams that one faces that the other does not, or else when there is a disparity in the number of times the opponent is face. For instance the Bulls have three games remaining against the Hawks while the Heat have only two.
The Heat's unique games include, Denver, Houston, the Lakers, Oklahoma City, Portland and the two games against the Spurs. The Bulls face Orlando twice, the Hawks, New Orleans, New York, Utah, Indiana, New Jersey and Sacramento. Miami's unique opponents have a winning percentage of .659 while the Bulls opponents have a winning percentage of .511. The Heat have the tougher schedule ahead and they've struggled against the better teams.
Based on current winning percentages against winning and losing teams the Bulls project to a 17-7 finish, while the Heat project to a 14-8 finish. The Heat not only have the tougher task to finish a game ahead of the Bulls, they have the tougher task ahead to achieve it.
According to Hollinger's rankings, over the last 25 percent of their games the Bulls have outscored their opponents by 8.27 points while the Heat have outscored their opponents by 7.80 points The Bulls opponents have had a winning percentage of .477 while the Heat's have won an average of .488 of their contests. That means, right now, the Bulls are playing better than the Heat.
The Bulls have the scheduling advantage. If the Bulls finish 17-7 (.708) then the Heat would need to finish 16-6 (.727) . The Heat have to elevate more than the Bulls, and do it against tougher competition.
And just in case you're thinking about the Bulls and their road struggles. They have won seven of their last 10 on the road, and they are sixth in the NBA in efficiency differential on the road. Their "road struggles" are greatly exaggerated. However, even if you take their road vs. home splits to figure out their remaining schedule, they still finish 17-7.
Joakim Noah Is Back
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The return of Joakim Noah means a lot more than you might think. With Noah in the lineup the Bulls are arguably a better starting five than the Miami Heat. If not more talented then you can certainly make the argument that they are more productive. Consider the production of the top three players for each team.
| Players | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | Steals | Total |
| Rose, Boozer, Naoh | 57.3 | 26.0 | 12.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 101.5 |
| James, Wade, Bosh | 70.0 | 22.6 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 112.0 |
So, if you're just looking at the top three then yes, Miami has the better trio. However there are two things to consider. First, it's not as big of a difference as you might think. The Bulls top three offers 91 percent of the production that the Heat's top three does. The other is, it's not just about what the top three produce. Looking at the averages of the top four, you see a different story.
| Players | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | Steals | Total |
| +Deng | 75.1 | 32.1 | 15.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 129.5 |
| +Chalmers | 76.7 | 24.8 | 15.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 124.4 |
When you look at the most productive five man unit you get an even clearer picture.
| Team | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | Steals | Total |
| Chicago | 81.5 | 35.5 | 17.1 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 142.5 |
| Miami | 82.0 | 29.3 | 16.0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 135.8 |
Then factor in that in terms of efficiency differential the Bulls have the best bench in the NBA, which also now improves with Thomas getting moved from "starter" to "bench" as a result of Noah's return. Miami's by comparison is 16th.
Now that Noah is back, the Bulls have the better team, or at least the most productive. They have a more productive team going against weaker competition, with a lower bar.
They Have a Better Chemsitry
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Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins recently interviewed Derrick Rose for the issue which hits stores today. On an interview with Comcast Sports Net he raved about the chemistry the Bulls have.
Jenkins said, "A couple of players were saying--veteran guys--that they've never been on a team or seen a team where everybody had a more defined role. Everybody knows exactly when they're going in...Tom Thibodeau's done just an incredible job with the defense for one, but also with letting these guys get comfortable and play their games."
In spite of being absent Noah for most of January and February, the Bulls have the best record (19-7) in the Eastern Conference since the new year. In fact the only team in the NBA with a better record is the Spurs (21-7). The fact is the more this team plays together, the better they play together.
A lot of the credit for that goes to the management and to Tom Thibodeau. In his recent article Michael Wilbon from ESPN quotes Joakim Noah, "The NBA is so much about managing the highs and lows," Noah said, "which I think coach [Tom] Thibodeau has done an incredible job with that. He's got a borderline sickness about it. The other night he called a 7:30 a.m. meeting to talk and we're like, 'Come on, Thibs!' But we know he's right to do it."
This comment identifies precisely why the Bulls' head coach may be the Coach of the Year in his rookie year (as far as I can tell only the second to achieve that if he does). The team is a "team" in a way in which even journalists and players who have spent a lot of time in basketball are noting how impressive it is.
The word that comes to mind is "synergy" which for those unfamiliar with the word, means they are greater than the sum of their parts. It comes from the Greeek, "syn-ergos" meaning "works together"
The Bulls are a team which, perhaps only just now are starting to get the notoriety they've been missing. They are still discounted as even being a contender for the Eastern Conference finals though, in large part because the individual parts aren't as impressive.
The Celtics have no less than four Hall of Fame players if the entire team retired today. Depending on the duration of his career, Rondo could join that list as well at some point. The Heat have at minimum, two Hall of Fame players, and depending on their careers play out, by the time they retire both James and Wade could be among the top 20 all time. Bosh has an outside shot at the Hall as well.
The Bulls have only one player who was even in the All-Star game, and depending on how is career develops, Derrick Rose should join the Hall conversation at some point in his career. Deng, Boozer and Noah could all end up getting consideration down the road if the Bulls get multiple championships, but not unless they make it in for "winning."
The individual parts are not as impressive as the other teams, but they are playing at the same level as the Heat or the Celtics and the reason is synergy. It comes from a genuine friendship between the players off the court, and from having such clearly defined roles and responsibilities on it.
Compare this with Chris Bosh's comments about his coach, "Coach wants us to work, we want to chill." Comments and shoulder bumps, real or perceived, meanwhile have led to questions regarding Eric Spoelstra's job security all through the season.
The opposite of synergy is "antagonism" which in chemistry means, "phenomenon where two or more agents in combination have an overall effect which is less than the sum of their individual effects."
The Heat are still, three quarters of the way through the season, trying to figure out who should have the ball at the end of the game. They are still talking about gelling. The Heat may not have an antagonistic relationship with one another in terms of how much they like each other, but there's no question, they have been less than the sum of their parts.
The reason all of this is pertinent is that when it comes to the stretch run, the chemistry of the Bull will work for them while the Heat's will work against them. It's the type of things that makes the Bulls 11-7 in close games and the Heat 5-11.
As a team the Bulls are better set to survive the stretch run than the Heat, and that's because of their synergy. It's what defines the Bulls more than anything else, and the lack of it is what defines the Heat's struggles.
Derrick Rose Is the MVP
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I read an article this summer that was recounting how Tom Thibodeau was getting ready to leave work this summer at 11 P.M. when he saw Derrick Rose practicing his threes and then talked to Rose about what his plans for the team were. Immediately three things crossed my mind. First, Thibs really works late, second, Rose works even later, and finally, this team is going to be good.
This year Rose has elevated his 3-point shooting percentage to .347. It's because of the work he put in this summer. Derrick Rose is a player that works on his game. He's also a player that hates to lose. When the Bulls lose, he takes it personally, and literally, gets sick to his stomach. He also uses it for motivation.
When the Bulls lost to the Clippers on December 18, Rose could have tied the game with a free throw. Instead he missed his 29th free throw of the season on his 122nd attempt. He decided to improve it. Since then he's only missed 28 attempts on 238 attempts. One less miss on nearly double the tries.
When the Buls lost to the Knicks on Christmas Day, it was the culmination of a season long frustration with not getting calls when he drove to the lane. While Bulls fans were frustrated with him not getting calls, he didn't blame it on the refs. He took responsibility.
He went to the film. He watched his own games and others who had more success getting to the line. He figured out the reason he wasn't getting enough calls is that he was hitting the lane to quickly. He determined that that if he hesitated as he drove the lane, the could actually get more calls.
On January 1st he broke out his new game. Prior to that point he had been averaging 23.9 points on 20.2 attempts. He was attempting 5.2 free throws per game. Since then he's been averaging 25.8 points on 20.2 attempts and is averaging 7.6 attempts per game. That's nearly a 50 percent increase in getting calls, and almost two more points on the same number of attempts.
Compare this with LeBron James and the Miami Heat's preseason victory party before they ever even had a practice together. The biggest difference between LeBron James and Derrick Rose is that James wants to have won, but Derrick wants to win. In other words, Rose is willing to work for it.
He doesn't just will his team to victory, he works his team to victory. It's the kind of leadership that the the team follows. After the Bulls blew out Philadelphia by 45 points this season, the post game interviews were all players talking about the things they did wrong, and how thy need to get better.
Work ethic is Rose's identity, and it's been imprinted on this team. It's why Carlos Boozer is talking about what the Bulls need to do to win on the road right now if they want to get deep into the playoffs. Un-won rings ahead of the Bulls, and behind the Heat. That's a result of the difference in attitudes between their leaders. It's why Derrick Rose deserves the MVP.
He didn't win it just in the games this season. He won it this summer, when he was practicing his three-point shot at 11 PM. He won it when he determined to improve his free throw shooting and worked on it in the gym. He won it in his living room when he was watching the film to learn how to get even better. That's the attitude that is going to carry the team too the end of the season, and the attitude that will assure the Bulls of the second seed, if not the first.
