Joakim Noah's Return and Why He's So Important to the Chicago Bulls

Joakim Noah is returning to the Bulls tomorrow night. There are a lot of reasons for the Bulls to be encouraged by that, as they have hardly had their starting five playing together and healthy yet this season. There's a reason that people are anticipating what the Bulls will look like when the five are together, though it's not completely obvious by looking at Noah's numbers directly. 

There's a tendency in the league to focus on a player's direct impact on the game, and not realize the ripple effect they produce. Particularly with a player like Noah, it's easy to look at his numbers and just see the 15 points and 12 rebounds and think he's giving just rebounding.

I've gone through the game log and taken some stats game by game to see how the team fares with and without Naoh to see what they might expect with Noah's return.

Before doing that though I'd like to mention that Kurt Thomas has been amazing in place of Noah, providing solid defense and rebounding in his absence. In Thomas they've had an incredibly capable fill in who has performed well beyond expectations.

I also want to point out how good of a team the Bulls have become while Noah's been out, and mention that the team has improved while Noah has been absent, but that shouldn't be confused with improving because of Noah's absence.

Part of the reason is, of course, Derrick Rose and his improvement not only over the summer, but through the season. When Derrick Rose hit the films like his coach and learned how to draw fouls it had a huge impact. Breaking out his new game New Year's Day, there was a pronounced change in the Chicago Bulls, even if it's not being talked about on ESPN as much as the Carmelo Anthony trades. 

In the year 2011 the Bulls have been far more efficient offensively than they had been. Before the calendar turned pages, the Bulls were averaging 103.0 points per possession. In 2011 they have been averaging 106.2 points per possession. That's a huge difference.

If they were still at 103 they'd be 20th in the league. Currently, Orlando is 10th in the league at 105.7. In other words, the Bulls have gone form being a bottom-10 team offensively to being a top-10 team. 

This is relevant to the conversation because it is important to distinguish the difference between how the Bulls have played apart from Noah and how they have played without Noah. These improvements are not because Noah has not been in the lineup but in spite of him not being in the lineup. As a team they've improved, but they are still missing a few critical things that Noah brings back to the table. 

First and foremost is how well the team plays in transition, both offensively and defensively. If you look at the season totals then Chicago looks the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively. When you look at the splits with and without Noah though, you see a big difference.

Noah has played great, but out of necessity he slows down the Bulls' game plan. With Noah in the game the Bulls were playing at a pace of 94.9 possessions per game. Since Noah went out they've been averaging a pace of 92.0 possessions per game. That's roughly the difference between the Warriors pace at fourth in the league and behind Orlando at 17th in the league.   

Before Noah went down, the Bulls were averaging 15.91 fast break points per game. That's how many Oklahoma City, fourth in the NBA, is scoring on the season.

Without Noah the Bulls have been scoring 10.61 (11.53 per 100 possessions) fast break points per game. That's just under what Portland, 29th in the NBA, is averaging. In other words, with Noah the Bulls are one of the best fast-break teams in the NBA; without him, one of the worst. 

Conversely, without him the Bulls are yielding 14.62 fastbreak points per game. That's just shy of what Charlotte, at 21st in the NBA, gives up. With him they are giving up 12.9 fastbreak points per game, which would put them at 11th in the NBA, giving up just a tenth of a point more than Miami. 

This is significant because the Bulls are a very good set team. In games where they've outscored their opponents by two or more points in transition they are 14-3. In spite of his having played in 24 games, 10 of the 17 games where they have done that have come with Noah in the lineup.

On the season the Bulls are 21-5 when winning or tying the fast-break battle, a feat they were able to accomplish 54 percent of the time with Noah in the lineup, but only 40 percent of the time without him. 

It also bears mentioning that the schedule the Bulls played while Noah was in the lineup was more difficult than the schedule they've had without him. In fact, at the time he went out, the Bulls were ranked first in SOS. 

When you factor all of this together, the Bulls were a team outscoring their opponents by 3.01 points per game to a team that has been outscored by 4.01 points. That's a 7.02 swing in transition points.

Granted, some of those points are going to be scored either way, but even if you figure that half the points are scored anyway—both by the Bulls and their opponents—just by teams running their normal set offenses, that's as much as a 3.5 point swing per game. That's a huge difference. 

The next thing is rebounding. With Noah in the lineup the Bulls out rebounded their opponents by a margin 5.1 rebounds per game. With him out of the lineup they've still got an advantage, but only of 3.8. While either is enough to lead the NBA in differential, it's telling that the Bulls could be doing even better than they already are. 

Where it's particularly noteworthy, though, is offensive rebounds. The Bulls were averaging 13.7 per game before Noah went down; without him it's only been 10.9. That's a difference of 2.8 offensive rebounds per game. Do you think it's a coincidence that margin is roughly equal to the difference in offensive rebounds between Noah and Thomas?

Factor in that Noah averages 1.3 points per game on tip-ins. Additionally, about half of his 7.9 points in the paint per game are assisted. That means that somewhere between 1.3 points and 3.9 points of those offensive rebounds are converted into points directly by Noah.

Even if we take the minimum of 1.3, and only take half of the 3.5-point swing in the fastbreak points, that's a very easy 3 points per game difference in average margin per game with or without Noah. Bear in mind that's a highly conservative estimate. 

Since the start of January the Bulls have an efficiency differential of 7.66, which would be third best in the NBA over the season (I can't find splits on these things). This is in large part due to the improvement previously mentioned in Rose's game and the corresponding improvement in the Bulls offensive efficiency. The things that Noah brings aren't things that are being provided. 

Certainly there's what he might bring in a superior, and according to rumor, improved mid-range jumper over Thomas.

However, even if you don't factor in the improvement that comes by having Noah in the set offense, but just what happens in the combined difference of points in transition and offensive put backs, it's reasonable to conclude that Noah makes a difference of at minimum 3 points per game. Such a difference would put the Bulls efficiency difference at over 11 points, which would be the highest in the NBA. 

Certainly there may be some margin of error there, but when you consider the difference he brings in superior defense, if there is, it's mitigated. The difference between Noah and Thomas is a much bigger difference than many of the talking heads are realizing. It's not the difference between a good team an elite team.

The Bulls have beaten the elite teams without him. They are an elite team. The difference between Noah and Thomas may very well be the difference between an elite team and the best team in the NBA, and that's why it's so compelling to see what the Bulls will be like when they are finally complete.