Miami Heat All-Star Break Analysis, Part 1: What Happened to 70+ Wins?
There was a lot of hype surrounding the Miami Heat before the season started and the obvious question after the All-Star break is this: "How did they do living up to the hype?"
There were a few predictions hyped on the Miami Heat Index blog:
The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats for all games before the All-Star break, so let's take a look at the numbers and see how the Heat did. This article is the first in a three-part series that will evaluate how the team has measured up to the pre-season hype.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential (points scored per possession minus points surrendered per possession) and wins. An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
What Happened to 75 Wins?
The most hyped prediction for the Heat this season was that they would win 70+ games. On the Miami Heat Index blog, they were predicted to win 75 games. What happened?
The story for the Heat falling short of winning 75 games starts with efficiency differential. A team that produces an efficiency differential of +13.7 points per 100 possessions would be expected to win 75 games and have 56 wins at the All-Star break.
The Heat's efficiency differential this season is only +8.6, which translates to an expected 42 wins at the All-Star break, but the Heat players have just produced an estimated 40.9 wins this season. The table posted HERE with the title "Projection vs. Actual" illustrates the differences between what each player was expected to produce before the season started and their estimated wins produced this season.
The only Heat players that have met or surpassed the expectations hyped on the Miami Heat Index blog in the pre-season are Dwyane Wade and the collection of role players (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Eddie House, Erick Dampier, Joel Anthony, Jamaal Magloire, Jerry Stackhouse and Juwan Howard). The role players have produced an estimated 9.1 more wins than expected at the All-Star break while Wade has only produced 0.1 estimated wins less than predicted.
There are two big reasons why the Heat aren't on pace to win 75 games: the production of LeBron James and injuries.
Last season, LeBron produced a Win Score of 17.2 per 48 minutes. This season, he's only produced a Win Score of 13.9 per 48 minutes. The table posted HERE labeled "LeBron-2010-vs-2011" illustrates the differences between his production then and now.
As the table shows, LeBron's production has declined in every category except rebounding. This decline has resulted in about five fewer less wins for the Heat, which accounts for half of the 10 wins they would need to be on a 75-win pace.
Was this decline in LeBron's production foreseeable? Perhaps. Two-thirds of the decline in LeBron's production is tied to his decline in scoring and assists which could be caused by having the ball in his hands less this season.
Of course, having the ball in his hands less shouldn't result in more turnovers, less blocks or more fouls so maybe the decline wasn't foreseeable. Let's move on.
Injuries are the second big reason the Heat aren't on pace to win 75 games. Even though Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller haven't performed at the level predicted in the pre-season, the 1,900+ minutes of playing time they missed have cost the Heat an estimated eight wins.
However, Ilgauskas, Chalmers and the bench have performed better than expected filling in for Haslem and Miller. A reduction in their minutes would cost the Heat an estimated three wins, so the net loss from Haslem and Miller's injuries has been an estimated five wins.
So, there you have it:
Less LeBron + Injuries = Less Than 75 Wins.
If LeBron had simply maintained his production from last season and Haslem and Miller didn't suffer freak injuries, then the Heat could be on pace to be just as good as predicted.
