Chicago Bulls Myths and Realities: Evaluating Criticisms of the Team
The Chicago Bulls ten point victory over the San Antonio Spurs has people buzzing that maybe, just maybe, this team is a contender after all. While the team has a growing share of defenders, there's also a growing number of dissenters accompanying them.
There are numerous criticisms of the Bulls, some fair, some unfair. This slideshow will evaluate these criticisms and determine the reality of each one, separating myth from reality.
They Need a Shooting Guard Upgrade To Win
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Keith Bogans is without question the most criticized Bull there is. To be fair, he probably doesn't deserve the criticism he gets. On the other hand, he's also without question the least productive starter in the lineup.
It's hard to imagine how good the Bulls could be if the dream guard with the combined talents of Kyle Korver's shooting and Ronnie Brewer's defense were able to be acquired it's hard to imagine how good the Bulls could be. It's the reason that Bogans gets so much criticism. It's also the reason that the Bulls receive so much trade speculation
Consider this one fact, when Bogans scores six points or more, the Bulls are 17-1. Chicago doesn't need Kobe Bryant at the shooting guard, they just need someone who can offer some kind of reasonable threat.
Bogans is not the only one who plays at the position though. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver both fill time there. When Korver scores 10 or more the Bulls are 22-4. When Brewer scores at least eight the Bulls are 20-4. The Bulls are 9-1 when the three combine for 25 or more. They average 19.2 when the team wins, and 17.5 combined when it loses.
In short there is a very strong tie between the Bulls success and what production they get from the position, even if that production is not much at all. On the one hand you can look at that and see how much better the Bulls are when they get an inkling of help from the position. On the other you can look at it and see that the Bulls have had the three players combine for 25 points or more only three times all season.
Very recently the trio have started to have a bit of a breakthrough, averaging 23.4 combined points in February. They've been combing for almost four three-point field goals a game, and have a combined FG percentage of .612.
So is this one myth or reality?
Mostly reality. The Bulls could be improved a lot with a consistent threat at the shooting guard. They have been winning without one though, and there's a recent trend of improvement offensively by the committee they have presently. They are also 22 games over .500 in case you haven't noticed.
Do they need an upgrade to win? No. But they would be helped and have a significant chance of advancing further in the playoffs, if not outright winning the championship with a consistent threat.
Their Record Is a Product Of Being In The Weak Central Division
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The Chicago Bulls are in the weakest division in the NBA, and there's no question about that. They are also a perfect 11-0 against teams in their division. One of the criticisms of the Bulls is that the there success has been a convenience of that. This criticism is complete myth. After all they are 27-16 outside of their division.
And lest you think they're just beating up on the weak teams, the Bulls have the fourth best record in the NBA against .500 teams. This includes an NBA best 10-2 against winning teams since December 5th. That date corresponds with Carlos Boozer's third game back; it's not just an arbitrary date. It's starts from the time that Boozer had his first full practice with the team—ever.
In the course of that time the Bulls have beaten the Thunder, Lakers, Heat, Magic, Mavericks and Spurs, all those elite teams that the Bulls aren't supposed to be one of. It should also be pointed out that the Bulls are the only team in the NBA who is undefeated against the Central division.
Finally, they are also 7-1 against the Southwest division, the toughest division in the NBA. In fact, they have a winning record against every one of the NBA's divisions. Finally they hold the Eastern Conference's best record against the Western Conference.
Yes, the Bulls are in the Central Division, and that is the weakest division in the NBA. They have no control over that. To call their record a product of that though is not only wrong, it's lazy.
Derrick Rose Is Too "Selfish" For The Bulls To Win
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This charge is something akin to defending that he's not a Martian. The general accusation is that Rose will shoot regardless of whether he's making shots or not, and that he looks to shoot first and pass second. A look at the facts doesn't' support that charge.
In the 32 games where he shot over .423 he averages a field goal percentage of about .500, attempts 21.2 shots and 7.5 assists to go with his 28.4 points. The Bulls are 24-8 in those games.
In the 21 games where he shot below .423 that he averaged 18.5 shot attempts and 9.1 assists to go with his 19.4 points. The Bulls are 14-7 in those games. In other words when his shot is not falling, he gets his teammates involved and shoots less.
Rose plays according to how the opponent defends him. The evidence above supports this, however watching the games reinforce it. If they come up to him and trap him, double, or even triple teaming him, then he passes the ball out works to get the ball to the open man. If they don't he breaks down the defense off the dribble and scores. He plays what the defense gives him, like he should, and that's the primary reason for the Bulls success this season.
For those who have tried to superimpose the "20 shot effect" onto Rose it should be noted, they are 21-8 when Rose takes at least 20 shots, 17-7 when he takes fewer. If anything, the Bulls chances of winning go up not not down when Rose takes more than 20 shots.
This one falls into the myth column.
Derrick Rose Is Too Inefficient For The Bulls To Win
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This one is a little more complicated. The fact is that Rose is changing this one from one that was true to one that is no longer true. First I want to explain what "efficiency" means in this criticism though. Basically it means how many points a player gets per field goal attempt.
It factors getting to the in with field goal percentage. The NBA average for this about 1.22 points per attempt. LeBron Jame averages 1.40 and Kevin Durant 1.42. Derrick Rose on the season is averaging 1.23, ever so slightly above average. There's more to this story though, which is why this answer is a little complicated.
Before the New Year's game Derrick Rose got sick of not getting foul calls, so he went and started studying the film and figured out that the reason he wasn't getting calls is that he was hitting the lane too fast. He determined that if he actually slowed down a bit going into the net he would get more calls. It's little wonder why, his efficiency before the calendar changed was only 1.18.
Since then he's steadily improved. In the month of January he was at 1.30. For the month of February he's at 1.37, past Kobe territory and entering LeBron and Durant territory. His 42 points against the Spurs last Thursday came on only 28 shots, and over his last three games he's been scoring 1.46 points per field goal attempt. He's improved and still improving. That's the earmark of Rose who seems to consistently press himself to improve.
This one is reality, but it's more of a historical one than present one.
Defensively, Carlos Boozer Is Too Weak
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This is another one that's difficult to answer because it's partly true and partly untrue. I'm not going to try and convince anyone that Boozer is a great defender, or even for that matter a good defender. He's somewhere in between "average" and "good enough."
His Defensive Rating is 99. Now part of that is that he plays within a defensive system, and the majority of the credit for that goes to Tom Thibodeau, and is partly an issue of a lot of help on defense. Still, it remains true that Boozer is a part of that system, and it is working with him in it.
This is at least in part, validated by the fact that the Bulls give up the sixth fewest points in the paint. They are 10th in the NBA in field goals given up at the rim. Now granted, that's not evidence of great defensive performance, but it's certainly with the description of somewhere between "average" and "good enough."
Overall what he provides is enough for the Bulls defense to be a very good one. Hypothetical arguments concerning "whether" he is "good enough" someone need to acknowledge the reality that he has been playing well enough and that with him in the defense, it has become the second best one in the NBA, arguably even the best.
The only team with a lower defensive rating is the Celtics and the Bulls have been without their top defensive player better than half their games. Imagine Boston without Kevin Garnett for 25 games. Considering Noah's absence, the Bulls might have the best defense in the NBA overall.
This one is one is half reality and half myth, he's probably too weak on his own, but in the system he's not.
They Don't Have Enough Post Season Experience
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Another criticism frequently leveled against the Bulls is that they don't have enough playoff experience because they haven't won a series yet. If you've been holding to this criticism you might be surprised to learn that as a roster the Bulls have a total of 299 playoff games on their roster.
Granted, Joakim and Derrick have only been to the first round, but that doesn't mean they're the only ones on the roster. Scalabrene has a ring, Thomas has been to the finals, Boozer has been to the Conference finals and Brewer with him. Korver's been to the second round. There's a lot of playoff experience on this roster, it just hasn't all come together.
Factor in the fact that Boozer and Noah have three National Championships between them and Derrick Rose played in a national championship game.
This is a team well familiar with the kind of pressure that the postseason brings.
This one is mostly myth. Yes, they have some holes here, but this isn't' a team like the Thunder where there is a roster largely composed of players without significant playoff experience.
Tom Thibodeau Is a Rookie Coach
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Well, there's no arguing one fact. Tom Thibodeau is a rookie head coach. How important that it is in terms of the Bulls ability to progress through the playoffs though I'm not sure.
The bottom line is that Thibs is not your typical rookie head coach. He's one of the smartest, most knowledgeable basketball people alive. He's widely considered as one of the two top candidates for coach of the year.
This is also a coach that has spent two of the last three seasons in the NBA finals. With Boston he was as much of a co-head coach as he was an assistant coach. His experience there doesn't become meaningless merely because he's switched titles.
There are a smattering of questionable moves he's made such as subbing in John Lucas III in the last few seconds of a game, but on the whole the Bulls are as successful as they are because of Thibodeau, not in spite of him. His experience in the postseason, and track record for devising defenses that shut down opposing teams in seven game series, are going to benefit the Bulls.
This criticism is true, but it's relevance is myth.
