Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, and 23 Other NBA Star's True Value
Well, true value according to me.
It is I, Will, the Armchair GM, the Ignorer of Stats, and Arch Nemesis of the Cult of LeBron.
To make a long story short, I wanted to analyze two star players (relatively speaking of course) from each NBA franchise and, breaking them down by six categories (each category with a point system up to 10), receive a set number. The person with the highest number (out of 60) would be my first pick if this were a fantasy/fake/I am God draft.
The goal of the immensely simplistic formula? To find the player, short term or long, I'd build my franchise around for a championship. Not money, advertising or putting butts in seats, but the shiny ring that blesses so few.
Though not as stuffy or passionless as the PER or as scientific as other studies, my little dinky chart of six categories is based on sight (and what I, personally, find important in a championship-caliber player).
Thus this is an entirely reusable test and I encourage people to use it in the discussion board. I'd love to see why I was right, why I was wrong, or why I was an idiot.
More details on the next slide. . .
*note: I stand by this list. If I were a GM in this mystical draft, I'd pick in this order (if I had the #2 pick and my #1 choice here was taken, I'd pick the #2. . .no regrets)
The Categories
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I chose six categories, five of which are pretty self explanatory:
1) Offense (or Offensive Production): This includes scoring ability, ability to create offense, etc.
2) Defense (or Defensive Production): This varies, of course, by position. Guards were judged heavily for the hounding they do and steals while big men were looked at for how they altered shots or changed offensive sets by opponents.
3) Leadership: This boils down to how people react to a player on the court, what their locker room presence is perceived to be or how it's described by teammates, and how their will to win affects the team.
4) Clutch: Does the ball go into his hands? Does he know where the open man is when it comes down to it? Will you win if he does one or both of those things?
5) Experience: Up for interpretation, but I looked at like this: what has this person experienced? If they are younger players they either bottomed out on this one or went way up because, being on the short list to begin with, they've done something to be a star on a team.
6) Durability/Future: Since I am building a franchise, I have to know if my new star will either be injury prone or, if he is much older, if they will be around for awhile. Of course, older players will suffer here because if I build a franchise around them, it would be a short run. Rookies or younger players, naturally, benefit if injury-free.
Now, for the argument that one may be more valuable then the other, I have to say that every great star had supplementary teammates who might have filled one or multiple roles. John Paxson wouldn't have scored high on this list except Clutch. So, I figured these six categories showed good balance.
Think of this list as a mixture between NBA Jam, Rick Barry's Pro Basketball Bible, and Marvel Comic Cards.
The Final List
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Since everything is out of 10, the total point count is 60. There are no zeroes, so the lowest number is six and the highest is 60.
I made the cut off point 35 points as many of the stars I chose (two for each team) were ranked well below that mark.
Some notable people missing from this list (that scored under 35):
—Blake Griffin
—Devin Harris
—Andrew Bogut
—David Lee
—Mo Williams
—Gerald Wallace
—Tyreke Evans
—Kevin Love
*Note: I had to choose two stars from each team. Many have more then that (ask Miami, Boston, and OKC), so I had to go with my gut. I won't reveal all the choices (as many didn't make the cut) but, as I would like to see in the comments, all players can be analyzed.
This isn't an original idea by any means but I was hoping it might be fun and create discussion. If there was a tie, I had to become subjective and pick the one I thought would be the best of the tied group.
No. 25: Brandon Jennings
3 of 27
Offense: 7
Defense: 7
Leadership: 4
Clutch: 4
Experience: 4
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 35
Analysis: He can be spotty on the offensive end but, when he wants to or needs to, can drop points easily (like the 55 last year). He's also a solid distributor. He gets a little bump on the experience as he led a scary "Fear the Deer" campaign that almost bounced the shell-shocked Hawks last year.
The sky is the limit for him: he's young and is full of potential.
No. 24: Amar'e Stoudemire
4 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 5
Leadership: 3
Clutch: 5
Experience: 8
Durability/Future: 6
Total Score: 35
Analysis: To me, Amar'e is completely dependent on his starting point guard. He's had the fortune of playing with Steve Nash and at the moment is riding off of Raymond Felton's career year. He is certainly a better follower than a leader, which is fine in his position since he is so prolific at scoring. He's played in a number of big time playoff games so that type of experience would pay off.
#23: Steve Nash
5 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 1
Leadership: 10
Clutch: 8
Experience: 8
Durability/Future: 1
Total Score: 36
Analysis: Nash dishes and scores. That isn't his problem. He plays virtually no defense and is playing on simple willpower. His injuries aren't career-ending, but they are becoming chronic and are multiplying in number.
He doesn't have much left. Shame. Though he hasn't won a ring, he makes everyone around him better. He just needs that one player that shares Nash's refusal to lose.
Vince Carter, sadly, is not that person.
#22: Brandon Roy
6 of 27
Offense: 9
Defense: 7
Leadership: 9
Clutch: 7
Experience: 3
Durability/Future: 2
Total Score: 37
Analysis: Roy has sucked it up and inspired his undermanned and sometimes under-talented teams to impressive victories in both the regular season and the playoffs. He has an 'it' factor and the players in Portland look up to him. He doesn't have any knees left and his absences are starting to become noticeable however. . .not a great sign for the future.
No. 21: Joe Johnson
7 of 27
Offense: 9
Defense: 5
Leadership: 3
Clutch: 5
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 37
Analysis: There is no doubt Johnson can score, and at one point in Phoenix, his absence was labeled the reason why the Suns didn't advance to the Finals.
But since becoming the go-to-guy in Atlanta he's shown flashes of potential but hasn't provided all the execution. He doesn't miss a lot of games and is young despite the seasons he's logged. A mystery but one worth taking a gamble on at No. 20.
No. 20: Carmelo Anthony
8 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 5
Leadership: 3
Clutch: 7
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 6
Total Score: 37
Analysis: Melo is a "when he wants to" player. He plays defense "when he wants to." He leads the team "when he wants to." He scores whenever he wants and makes lots of buzzer-beaters, some even in the playoffs, but has a lot to prove.
His skills cannot be ignored—though his troublesome trade situation and his responses to it need work.
No. 19: Danny Granger
9 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 8
Leadership: 5
Clutch: 6
Experience: 5
Durability/Future: 4
Total Score: 38
Analysis: Granger's defensive numbers would surprise many while his scoring would not. He's having a bit of a down year in 2011 but is still a prolific offensive beast.
He is clearly the focal point of the Pacers organization but Granger needs to get them over .500. He has willed his teams to be competitive, when that was the least thing on the Pacers' mind.
No. 18: Rudy Gay
10 of 27
Offense: 9
Defense: 7
Leadership: 5
Clutch: 3
Experience: 5
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 38
Analysis: I won't lie. I've seen Rudy Gay play the least of anyone else on this list. From what I've seen from highlights and the few Grizzlies games I've watched, he is no doubt an immense talent.
He's played at a high level. He needs to translate that personal success to team success.
No. 17: Josh Smith
11 of 27
Offense: 6
Defense: 10
Leadership: 4
Clutch: 5
Experience: 5
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 39
Analysis: I think Smith is a few points-per-game away from being a superstar. His defense is second only to Dwight Howard and his offense is already top-notch. He has been overshadowed by Joe Johnson, no doubt, but can be a leader if given the opportunity.
I'd have no qualms about picking Smith this low.
No. 16: Stephen Jackson
12 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 7
Leadership: 3
Clutch: 3
Experience: 9
Durability/Future: 5
Total Score: 39
Analysis: Locker rooms love Jackson and he returns the love by making teammates better. He shows consistent defense and surprisingly good offense despite the years that have gone by. His one issue is staying in a locker room.
He's jumped around too much, with too much noise, and it has ruined his image a bit. "The Malice at the Palace" didn't help either. He has a ring and that matters, especially to a struggling franchise like the Bobcats.
No. 15: Dirk Nowitzki
13 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 1
Leadership: 9
Clutch: 3
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 10
Total Score: 39
Analysis: If you need points, Dirk can deliver. Defense is another story. Dirk has been a massive force since he arrived in the NBA and is on the list of "Greatest Players to Never Win a Ring."
But he hasn't won one for good reason; despite great numbers and clutch performances in the regular season, Dirk has some massive playoff chokes under his belt.
The durability number might seem odd for his age, but with the exception of the injury he had this year, Dirk doesn't seem to slow down and he hardly misses games. His future is unpredictable.
No. 14: LeBron James
14 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 7
Leadership: 6
Clutch: 1
Experience: 8
Durability/Future: 8
Total Score: 40
Analysis: James can't be stopped when he wants to score and he has the physical prowess to be a defensive force. It's his brain that gets in the way.
LeBron makes his teammates better to a point and has not figured out when to defer and how to win the big games. Being clutch does not necessarily mean you take over and ignore the team, something he has done many times before. He has great potential and the 2007 ECFs excluded, he has a lot to prove.
If I want 60 wins in the regular season I'll pick the self-anointed King. If I want playoff victories, I may only pick LeBron if the other 13 on this list aren't available.
No. 13: Derrick Rose
15 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 2
Leadership: 5
Clutch: 7
Experience: 7
Durability/Future: 10
Total Score: 41
Analysis: The tough-as-nails point guard has already done amazing things in the NBA Playoffs, even if he hasn't got past the first round. Add his franchise player tag, that early experience and his youth, and you have a player for the future. Add some better distribution skills and better defense and Rose might move up to the top someday.
No. 12: Deron Williams
16 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 7
Leadership: 4
Clutch: 7
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 7
Total Score: 41
Analysis: The Jerry Sloan affair didn't help the outsider's take on his leadership and locker room presence, but the rest can't be ignored.
Williams will score and dish, creating offense where none previously existed. He also has an impressive will to win that has stopped at certain points in the playoffs. If he can get over that hump, he'll rise even higher.
No. 11: Kevin Durant
17 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 4
Leadership: 5
Clutch: 7
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 10
Total Score: 42
Analysis: Durant is this "low" simply because the 2011 season hasn't been what is was supposed to be so far. The Thunder have shown little sign of improvement, which doesn't mean they're bad, as they won 50+ games last year.
But this was to be the team of the future, led by young rebel KD. Durant still scores at will and hits game-winners if needed, but the upcoming playoffs will determine his value. He has a lot on his shoulders. But he is young and healthy—the future is bright.
No. 10: Russell Westbrook
18 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 7
Leadership: 6
Clutch: 4
Experience: 6
Durability/Future: 10
Total Score: 43
Analysis: So far I would pick Westbrook over Durant. In the end, I want a smart distributing scorer (oxymoron?) to lead me when the buzzer is ticking it's final countdown.
Like many, Westbrook was a revelation to me last year as I had not seen him play too much until the Western Conference playoff crunch at the end of last season. This year, I've seen him become virtually unstoppable against elite teams, though he still has room to grow.
No. 9: Pau Gasol
19 of 27
Offense: 9
Defense: 7
Leadership: 6
Clutch: 5
Experience: 9
Durability/Future: 7
Total Score: 43
Analysis: If this were 2008 this position would be a joke. But Gasol learned from the physical beating he took from the Celtics in the NBA Finals and came back with a vengeance, taking out Dwight Howard in 2009 and his rival Celtics in 2010, washing away his reputation of being soft.
Along the way he has maintained his finesse game, his range and an impressive defensive mentality. He does tend to defer (but when playing with Kobe, who wouldn't) and his focus is sometimes lacking, but for now he is a certified top 10 pick.
No. 8: Chris Paul
20 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 10
Leadership: 10
Clutch: 5
Experience: 5
Durability/Future: 6
Total Score: 44
Analysis: Paul has yet to prove himself on the big stage, managing his team to one playoff series victory and two epic collapses. However, his raw talent alone is worth an investment.
He can score at a prolific rate, force lots of turnovers, and see the open man long before the open man is even open. His vision, leadership (locker rooms love him) and desire to win need only be matched by future playoff success. It seems inevitable.
No. 7: Manu Ginobili
21 of 27
Offense: 7
Defense: 9
Leadership: 8
Clutch: 8
Experience: 10
Durability/Future: 3
Total Score: 45
Analysis: Currently living in Phoenix, it is easy to see why Ginobili is so high on this list. Ask any Phoenix Suns fan what they think of Ginobili and it usually comes out like this: %^_*))&&!
But you hate someone like Ginobili because he is so consistently good. You can't teach certain intangibles and Ginobili, no matter how old he starts to look or how beat up he gets, will be the Jeff Hornacek, producing, producing, producing until someone makes him quit.
No. 6: Kevin Garnett
22 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 8
Leadership: 10
Clutch: 8
Experience: 10
Durability/Future: 1
Total Score: 45
Analysis: Though he is starting to look like the aged boxer bending the rules here and there to maintain the advantage, nothing can be taken away from KG's intensity, ability to lead and unending will to win.
His only downside are his creaky bones which could be reduced to powder at any time. The timetable is limited with Garnett so you have to grab him when you can. The future is a risk but everything else is not.
No. 5: Dwyane Wade
23 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 7
Leadership: 9
Clutch: 9
Experience: 8
Durability/Future: 2
Total Score: 45
Analysis: It's not that Wade doesn't have a future; it's just a question of how much of a future. Wade is injury-prone and it is a shame because such a massive talent deserves to grace the floor for 82 regular season games and the playoffs.
His offensive abilities, championship experience and the respect he gets from teammates and his city are not up for argument. Wade is one of the few people who can literally win one playoff game by himself if needed.
No. 4: Tim Duncan
24 of 27
Offense: 7
Defense: 8
Leadership: 10
Clutch: 10
Experience: 10
Durability/Future: 3
Total Score: 48
Analysis: What can you say about the intelligent big man that hasn't already been said by experts (and virtually ignored by NBA fans)? Duncan is perhaps the best power forward in NBA history and though he is always doubted as he gets older, he remains consistent. His Spurs are top of the heap in today's game, which shocks, yet simultaneously doesn't surprise, everyone. Though he might not be as explosive as he once was, Duncan is based on fundamentals, and fundamentals don't die.
He wouldn't be a long term solution, but who could pass up his wisdom and experience?
No. 3: Dwight Howard
25 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 10
Leadership: 9
Clutch: 8
Experience: 9
Durability/Future: 10
Total Score: 54
Analysis: DH12 is, along with the No. 2 option on this list, the future leader of the NBA. Unlike Garnett, Howard is this high simply because he has such a bright future. This season will probably be the first season his Magic squad does not improve or remain even with their previous regular season record (something they've done every year of Howard's career). With the exception of last year's "early" ECF exit, Howard has led his Magic to every stage of the playoffs save the victory podium, setting NBA Finals records along the way.
He is amazingly durable (he's never missed a game for an actual injury), his defense is already the best in the NBA and many choose to ignore (at their own peril) Howard's clutch play when it matters. His future with Orlando may be uncertain but as every year has shown, Howard is a beast on the continual rise.
When does he become simply unstoppable? I'd be willing to take the gamble and build my squad around him (Phil Jackson agrees!).
No. 2: Rajon Rondo
26 of 27
Offense: 8
Defense: 10
Leadership: 10
Clutch: 9
Experience: 9
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 55
Analysis: Many think Chris Paul is the best guard in the NBA. But even before applying any of the numbers, Rondo would always be my first PG of choice. Though his offensive arsenal is fairly limited and his shot is sometimes wanting, Rondo scores when he has to and always provides the much-needed helper.
His defense, never actually in doubt, was proven even better when the undersized guard flummoxed LeBron James in the most recent clash between the Celtics and Heat. Add the impressive experience (he was a key player in two NBA Finals teams and is only in his fourth year) with his youth, and the triple double machine is basically a guarantee when building a franchise.
No. 1: Kobe Bryant
27 of 27
Offense: 10
Defense: 10
Leadership: 9
Clutch: 9
Experience: 10
Durability/Future: 9
Total Score: 57
Analysis: There is no player in the league right now I'd want more than Kobe when it comes down to crunch time. Clutch is not always about hitting the last shot but also the ability to command the floor and lead a team to a victory (or a noble defeat). Kobe is the closest we'll ever get to Jordan in terms of competitive effort; when Kobe wants to win, he does his best to make sure it happens.
His leadership is also a key piece. He had a rough road from 2005-2007 but Kobe has adapted to not just one or two roles, but three. He first played the sidekick to the superior Shaq in the first few years of his career. He then played equal partner to Shaq in many a title run. It took him awhile to grasp the "main man" mentality, but once he got a hold of it, learning from the bumps and bruises, it has pretty much been "Title Or Bust" (and he's followed through on two of three title chances).
His durability may seem high but Kobe has played more games in the last three or four years than he did in that same amount of time before that. And he has guts of steel—he's basically played entire seasons of basketball with multiple injuries with no break until this summer.
Like Jordan, as he's slowed down physically, Kobe has adjusted his game. Unless he gets seriously hurt, I don't see him slowing down for a little while.
