Miami Heat Check: To Be the Best, You Must Beat the Best

There was some talk on Twitter debating whom Miami Heat fans should have rooted for in Thursday's Lakers-Celtics game. Sun Sports' Jason Jackson and others advocated rooting for the L.A. Lakers so that the Heat could be the No. 1 seed in the NBA Eastern Conference.

My answer was different and it was simple—support neither.

As long as the Heat beat the teams they're supposed to beat, they can take care of their own business with Boston, since they have two games left with the Celtics this season.

The Heat don't need help from the children of lesser gods. To paraphrase a verse from the rapper Nas on "Rule" featuring singer Amerie:

In the NBA, the weapons are spherical
To be the best, you challenge the best and the blessings are spiritual
Top of the world for Three Kings, no less
Popping any player's head off their shoulders, no contest
I know the Most High hear me. So fly you can't get near me
You're scared of a mirror. My theory is that knowledge is power
For every Heat fan around the world, we gotta get ours

Are Nas' words the only reason I think the Heat can handle their own business in the Eastern Conference without any help? No, they're not, and since Nas said knowledge is power, let's get some.

The Knowledge

The fact of the matter is that the Heat have the highest efficiency differential in the NBA at plus-8.8. Efficiency differential is simply the number of points scored per possessions (offensive efficiency) minus the points surrendered per possession (defensive efficiency).  The team with the best efficiency differential is expected to win the most games. The team that wins the most games gets home-court advantage in the playoffs, and efficiency differential and home-court advantage have proven to be great predictors of postseason success. 

The Power

The powerful thing about knowing a team's efficiency differential is that it enables calculation of how many games a team's expected to win for the rest of the season. Here's how the Eastern Conference playoffs would be seeded if each team maintained its performance-to-date for the rest of the season with its current roster (efficiency differential and expected winning percentage in parentheses):

1. Miami Heat (+8.8): 61-21 (0.763)
2. Boston Celtics (+7.3): 59-23 (0.716) 
3. Chicago Bulls (+6.2): 56-26 (0.682)
4. Orlando Magic (+5.7): 52-30 (0.667)
5. Atlanta Hawks (+1.5): 49-33 (0.537)
6. New York Knicks (+0.1): 41-41 (0.493)
7. Philadelphia 76ers (+1.1): 40-42 (0.524)
8. Indiana Pacers (-0.2): 38-44 (0.484)

Based on their performance-to-date, the Heat should be expected to finish two games ahead of the Celtics in the East with the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage until the NBA Finals.

Now that the teams most likely to make the Eastern Conference playoffs have been identified, their best chances of beating the Heat in a seven-game series can be calculated using a tool created by Arturo Galletti, author of Arturo's Silly Stats, that provides the odds of winning an NBA playoff series based on each team's expected winning percentage.

• No. 8 Pacers: Less than 4.4 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in Round 1
• No. 5 Hawks: Less than 4.4 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Semifinals
• No. 4 Magic: 10.6 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Semifinals
• No. 6 Knicks: Less than 4.4 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Finals
• No. 7 Sixers: Less than 4.4 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Finals
• No. 3 Bulls:  12.1 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Finals
• No. 2 Celtics: 14.5 percent chance of beating Heat in six games in East Finals

As of now, the only thing standing between the Heat and their second trip to the NBA Finals is the Celtics' 14.5 percent chance of beating them in a Game 6 at Boston, but the Heat have a 20 percent chance of winning the series in Game 5 or Game 7 at the American Airlines Arena.

When it comes to the Celtics, there's very little to worry about as long as the Heat stay healthy.

So if they advance to the NBA Finals, what would be the odds of the Heat losing to the Western Conference Champion?  Here's how the Western Conference playoffs would be seeded if each team maintained its performance-to-date for the rest of the season with its current roster (efficiency differential and expected winning percentage in parentheses):

1. San Antonio Spurs (+7.4): 65-17 (0.719)
2. L.A. Lakers (+7.6): 58-24 (0.726)
3. Dallas Mavericks (+3.3): 54-28 (0.592)  
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.0): 50-32 (0.552)
5. New Orleans Hornets (+2.8): 49-33 (0.577)
6. Denver Nuggets (+3.1): 47-35 (0.586)  
7. Utah Jazz (-0.2): 44-38 (0.484)
8. Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5): 43-39 (0.537) 

Now that the teams most likely to make the Western Conference playoffs have been identified, here are their best chances of beating the Heat in a seven-game series:

• No. 1 Spurs: 17.8 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games
• No. 2 Lakers: 11.8 percent chance of beating Heat in five games 
• No. 3 Mavericks: 4.9 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games
• No. 6 Nuggets: 4.5 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games  
• No. 5 Hornets: 4 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games
• No. 4 Thunder: Less than 3.6 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games
• No. 8 Grizzlies: Less than 3.6 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games
• No. 7 Jazz: Less than 3.6 percent chance of beating Heat in seven games

The biggest obstacle between the Heat raising the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the second time in franchise history is the Spurs, who would have home-court advantage and an 18 percent chance of winning the series in seven games. The Heat, however, would have a 19 percent chance of winning the series in five games. 

The Spurs also have another problem—the Lakers. The Lakers have a slightly better efficiency differential and a 19.2 percent chance of defeating the Spurs in six games and a 19.1 percent chance of losing the series in seven games. It doesn't get much tighter than that.  

If the Lakers advance to the NBA Finals, then the Heat would likely have home-court advantage and a 21.4 percent chance of winning the championship in six games.

Of course, the first step towards the No. 1 seed begins today in Boston. It will be a hateful environment, but if the Heat take care of business, then they'll be the best, and Amerie will be proven right—"all this hate can't last forever..."

Efficiency differential stats were taken from nbastuffer.com.