Daytona 500: Power Ranking the Top 15 Drivers with a Chance To Win
There have been 52 trips to Victory Lane when a driver has hoisted the Harley J. Earl trophy and his name has been forever etched in the history books as the winner of the Daytona 500.
It is a status achieved by some drivers multiple times, some only once and many never. Winning the "Great American Race" is like winning no other race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit.
Drivers have raced on a new surface twice before at Daytona. The first was the inaugural race in 1959 and the second was the first live telecast of a NASCAR race in 1979.
The drivers liked the old track surface with its bumps, humps, grooves and filled holes, but they realized it was time for a new track.
Now with the new fast, black racing surface, handling is out the window, grip is in and the rest is all about speed and finding a dance partner for the two-car draft. Cars have run faster than 200 miles per hour in practice laps.
This Daytona 500 could make the always-present unpredictable events even more so. Drivers describe the track as being like Talladega, where they are able to run four-wide. Daytona is more narrow and they are expected to run three-wide, but you know it is a given that they will try to find an extra groove.
There are drivers who are expected to run up front with a chance to win. Some drivers are just fan-favorites that drive fast, well-prepared cars. Why would they not win the Daytona 500?
Other drivers will find unexpected speed, luck and push from another driver. They may be in the right place on the last lap and snatch a win to the surprise of all.
It's the Daytona 500, the biggest race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series circuit. The unknown lurks around every turn on every lap.
Picking a winner is a bit like picking that special leaf out of the fall foliage, but there are certain drivers who have a very good chance to win if statistics, history, experience, preparation and karma have anything at all to do with how the race will unfold.
Let's take a look at 15 drivers ranked to have the best chance to win the Daytona 500. See how this list compares to your ideas about who the winner will be.
No. 15 Carl Edwards
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Carl Edwards does not have an especially good record in the Daytona 500, with his best finish being ninth. It may be optimistic to rate him at No. 15.
Edwards will probably have trouble finding a dance partner to push him when it really counts, and the odds of him being caught up in some on track incident are really good.
I don't believe his Roush Fenway teammates, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, will be of any help to him, as they will be fighting their own battles.
No. 14 David Reutimann
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David Reutimann has improved steadily and this may be the year he will strut his ability behind the wheel of his Aaron's Dream Machine for Michael Waltrip Racing.
Last year, the driver of the No. 00 finished fifth in the Daytona 500. Reutimann's drive to win is very strong and he could easily be one to suddenly hook up and slide to the front at the end of the race. But if all goes predictably, my guess is he will be outside the top 10 for this race.
No. 13 Clint Bowyer
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Clint Bowyer has finished fourth the last two years in the Daytona 500. With the changes to the track this year, it may not play in favor of the driver of the No. 33 Cheerios Chevy.
Richard Childress Racing has strong cars, but it may be Jeff Burton and Paul Menard who end up being the push car for Bowyer. The other RCR driver, Kevin Harvick, will likely leave his teammates in his run toward the front.
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No. 12 Kurt Busch
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Kurt Busch started on a roll with his Shell Pennzoil Penske Dodge by winning the Bud Shootout at Daytona.
Busch has a total of nine top-five finishes at Daytona and his best finish in the 500 was second. The Penske driver will run strong throughout the race, but when it counts at the end, he may be hung out in the middle.
No. 11 Jimmie Johnson
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Jimmie Johnson, the five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion, won the Daytona 500 in 2006. He has six total top-five finishes at Daytona.
The driver of the Lowe's No. 48 will run strong as always during the race and have his moments in the lead, but I think his wins will come at other tracks.
For this Daytona 500, given the changes with the other drivers at Hendrick Motorsports, it is very possible they will outshine him for the 53rd running of the race.
No. 10 Jamie McMurray
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Last year's winner of the Daytona 500 will continue to run well in his No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet from the shop of Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.
His win last year was one of those Daytona surprises. The EGR cars with Childress horsepower will, of course, be contenders for a top finish, but McMurray may be the only one to make the top 10 in the end.
No. 9 Greg Biffle
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The driver of the 3M No. 16 Ford for Roush Fenway Racing had his best Daytona 500 finish with a third-place finish last year.
Circumstances have changed for every driver with the new track surface, but the respect other drivers have for Biffle may help him with a dance partner that will get him in the top 10.
Biffle has been very analytical with the way the air works between these two car drafts, the closing rate and the way the two cars must interact. His theories will probably get him a good finish as long as he can stay out of trouble.
No. 8 Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin does not do particularly well in the Daytona 500. He even had the steering wheel come off when he was trying to qualify for the pole.
The driver of the FedEx No. 11 Camry for Joe Gibbs Racing might get a top 10 finish if he doesn't get caught in some off-the-wall mistake or accident.
The runner-up for the NASCAR Sprint Cup title last year lost the title because of errors, and he could find some of the same problems until he and his crew chief, Mike Ford, hit their stride a little ways into the season.
No. 7 Mark Martin
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Mark Martin would like nothing better than to go out of his final year at Hendrick Motorsports with a Daytona 500 win.
He is just out to have fun with his GoDaddy.com No. 5 Chevrolet, but the talented driver has nine top 10 finishes in the Daytona 500.
Hendrick cars will be fast at this race, and most likely all four drivers will take their turn up front. Martin spun Kyle Busch in the Bud Shootout with a slight miss on the alignment of cars. He claims to not know what he did different to cause the wreck.
That may be the story of many drivers as they play two-car tag. It would be a very popular win if Martin could pull it off, but I doubt he can make it to the front under the new set of conditions with the track surface.
No. 6 Kyle Busch
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Kyle Busch, driver of the No. 18 M&M's Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, only has one top five finish in the Daytona 500.
Busch is out to win in the Cup series this year, even if he ends up sacrificing rides in the NASCAR Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series as the season rolls on.
He has the talent to win, and if he stays out of trouble, he will be near the front. It will come down to his dance partner at the end of the race, and most likely Denny Hamlin won't be the one pushing him, and Joey Logano might just be ahead of him.
No. 5 Joey Logano
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The driver of the No. 20 Home Depot Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing is only in his third year of the Cup series.
Logano has been fast at Daytona, and his maturity is really starting to show. The young driver may be a surprise driver who can be in the right place at the right time at the end of the race and grab a win from the more experienced drivers.
If Logano has a clean race, he should easily be able to get a top-five finish if he has a running mate and keeps his cool. Many would doubt him being ranked so high, but after listening to him several times, it is apparent he is ready to show what he's got for Joe Gibbs.
No. 4 Tony Stewart
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The picture says it all for the lighter, happier owner/driver of the No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevy. He very much wants his first Daytona 500 win and being ranked fourth puts him close enough to achieve that.
Tony Stewart has three wins at Daytona in the summer race and a total of 12 top-10 finishes. There is no doubt he can run well on the high banks, but this new track is a different animal.
Just like all the other drivers, he has to avoid spins and the inevitable multi-car debacles. If he is able to do so, a top five is easy for Stewart, but I think those ranked ahead of him may be his only obstacle to overcome.
It's Daytona, and you just never know what can happen at the Great American Race.
No. 3 Jeff Gordon
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The red undertones in the paint job of his No. 24 AARP Drive to End Hunger Chevy match the fire that burns to win and go for his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup title.
Jeff Gordon is very good at Daytona with three Daytona 500 wins and 12 top-five finishes at the track. He has a total of 20 superspeedway wins.
The top three in this ranking could easily be interchangeable, but it may be Gordon who pushes the winner across the finish line.
All four Hendrick Motorsports cars seem to be fast and that is what it will take, along with a little help from a friend or just another driver who thinks pushing will gain him an advantage.
It might be time for Gordon to start winning lots of races once again, but I don't think the Daytona 500 will be his first this year.
No. 2 Kevin Harvick
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Kevin Harvick will be behind the wheel of a black car, sponsored by Budweiser, for Richard Childress Racing.
The driver of the No. 29 has one Daytona 500 win in 2007 and was runner-up in 2009. Harvick led the points most of last year until the Chase rolled around.
He is out to win this year and go for the NASCAR Sprint Cup title as revenge for his third-place finish in the series last year. RCR will give him the horsepower he needs for good finishes.
In a prediction that defies logic perhaps, it should be the black car of Harvick's that pushes the winner across the finish line. Remember, it was Harvick who took over the wheel of Dale Earnhardt's car 10 years ago.
Maybe it is part of a master plan at Daytona this year.
No. 1 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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It was evident after the death of Dale Earnhardt at Daytona 10 years ago, that something unexplained was at play when Steve Park, a driver for Dale Earnhardt Inc., won the first race at Rockingham after that tragic day.
The unexplained continued when the son of the Intimidator won the 2001 July race at Daytona. Now, as the 10th anniversary rolls around, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was on the pole for the Budweiser shootout.
Dale Jr. won his first pole for the Daytona 500 and he is going for his 400th start. Hendrick Motorsports has given him a very good car with his new crew chief, Steve Letarte, throwing everything he has at getting his driver to Victory Lane.
The driver of the No. 88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet has been running very well at Daytona until he wrecked in the Budweiser Shootout. His record shows a Daytona 500 win in 2004 and he was second last year.
Junior has seven superspeedway career wins. Though he has weathered a drought in performance the last two years, it looks like the team swaps at Hendrick will prove to be good for all drivers involved.
Call it fate, karma or luck, but all the tributes to Dale Earnhardt that will take place pale to victory by his son. We shall see if Dale Earnhardt Jr. can win the 53rd Daytona 500, making all things right in NASCAR at least for now.
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