Golden State Warriors: Was the David Lee Sign-and-Trade a Good Idea?
The answer depends mainly on one's expectation level.
After Lee posted a 20/10 season (20.2 and 11.7 to be exact) with the New York Knicks last season and garnered a reserve spot on the Eastern Conference All-Star Team, the expectation level for continued production at this level was present.
However, that expectation level was also misguided and severely optimistic. After all, Lee's production came against a lower quality Eastern conference (where his team stumbled to a 29-53 record) and on a team where the club's second-highest scorer (Al Harrington, 17.7 points) was not even a starter.
In other words, the numbers were more than a little skewed by weak opponents and few teammates to carry the scoring burden.
At the same time, when the Warriors sent super prospect Anthony Randolph, along with injured-but-valuable-when-healthy swingman Kelenna Azubuike and valuable bench piece Ronny Turiaf the Knicks' way—and six years, $80 million Lee's way—expectations for a good season from Lee were certainly justified.
Now 47 games into the season, a look back at the sign-and-trade leaves some reactions, but more questions than anything.
Did the Trade Make the Warriors a Better Team?
The Warriors are certainly a better team this season than last (an injury-riddled team that won just 26 games), but have yet to show that they are good enough to make the next step in the organization's progression—that highly coveted trip to the postseason.
The fact that this club is just 1-8 when Lee does not play (to simplify the matter, that's 19-19 with Lee on the court) would seem to show that his presence is crucial to this club winning games.
But a closer look at the contests that he missed might make one reconsider that stance. After all, in the seven games that Lee missed following a November surgery on his elbow to remove a piece of Wilson Chandler's tooth, the Warriors lost at the Bulls, Bucks, Lakers, Rockets and Grizzlies and home games to the Pistons, Knicks and Nuggets. Throw out that loss at home to Detroit and there really isn't a game to pick out and say "The Warriors would have won if Lee had played." For a team that struggles away from home (6-17 on the road), it's hard to say that they would have split the road contests.
To make a long story short, Lee's presence makes the Warriors a better team. But the difference might be marginal.
Was Lee Worth Giving Up Randolph, Azubuike and Turiaf?
At the time, it appeared the Warriors had given up the farm for a player whose career numbers are only slightly better than Troy Murphy's (13.3 points and 9.6 rebounds for Lee; 11.8 points and 8.5 rebounds for Murphy).
But now that Mike D'Antoni has run into the same problems with Randolph that Nelson had, perhaps the Warriors did not give up too much in terms of players. After all, it's hard to cry over losing a player that has appeared in just 15 games this season, with 1.9 points and 2.6 rebounds.
As for the other two players, Azubuike has yet to make his Knicks debut, still rehabbing from his left patellar tendon injury last season. And for as much energy as Turiaf brought to the Warriors second unit, his spot on that unit has been filled by newcomers Ekpe Udoh and Lou Amundson.
Is Lee Worth His Six-Year, $80 Million Contract?
Absolutely not. For a team with already $27 million tied up in Andris Biedrins' contract for the following three seasons, adding Lee's salary will most likely prohibit the Warriors from becoming a player in free agency.
Even with the Warriors shedding $15 million when Vladimir Radmanovic and Dan Gadzuric's contracts expire following the season, the lack of a CBA in place is a daunting thought for a team with over $30 million invested in three players (Monta Ellis, Biedrins, Lee) over each of the next three seasons.
At the same time, it's hard to rip this signing from a team that had previously invested $150 million in Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and Erick Dampier. By that scale, Lee is a steal at $80 million.
So, Was the David Lee Sign-and-Trade a Good Idea?
Yes. Despite being overpaid, Lee was a solid acquisition by general manager Larry Riley. Good free agents are hard not to overpay, especially on a team fresh off a 26-56 season.
Off the court, he has brought the team a veteran presence (he was named a team captain before he ever played in a Warriors uniform) and he genuinely seems like he wants to be there. Golden State has struggled to attract any notable free agents in recent memory, so perhaps Lee's willingness to head west and the new ownership regime can start to put the Warriors on the free-agent landscape.
On the court, his passing ability and steady midrange jumper have helped balance his defensive shortcomings. And with this current roster, a run-and-gun offense is the only way to any success this season.
