NBA Midseason Report Card: Grading Each Team By Preseason Expectations
There have been a few other articles which have given midseason grades based on performance, but doing it according to expectations is another matter. Is Atlanta an A? Does Boston deserve a B? Does Charlotte earn a C? How about a D for Detroit? I'll be grading every team based on perseason expectations.
It all depends on how you're grading. If you're grading on actual performance, that's on thing. If you're grading based on how they were expected to perform, that's another. In order to grade this way, you have to first determine what expectations were.
It seemed that the best way to determine that was to use Vegas over/under odds. That doesn't mean that Vegas is right or wrong, but it does show what the general expectations of a team were. I then used current winning percentages to project wins over 82 games. Grades were then assigned based on expectations verses pace. Grading on a curve, I gave six of each letter grade.
However, some teams have faced injuries and other difficulties and are given "extra credit" as a result. Others have extra credit for turning things around of late. They will be ordered by their original grade, but the extra credit will be noted in the slide.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Withdrawn Failing
1 of 31
Preseason: 30.5
Pace: 15
Pace: -99.97%
Midseason MVP: None
Since LeBron's homecoming on December 2, they've only won one game. They've been outscored by 15 percent in those games. In the 21 games since then, they've held their opponents to under the century mark just three times and they've eclipsed it an equal number of times. That's not just bad, it's historically bad.
This is the same team that started off the season by beating Boston. It's easy to still put all the blame on LeBron, but there's a time for self accountability. Dan Gilbert responded to the loss of James by taking out ads instead of doing the one thing that he should have done to keep him there: bring in players.
It's popular to claim that the team is lousy because it was built around LeBron. That's just an easy excuse. Blame it on the Boogey Man. They're lousy because the owner quit trying to bring in free agents in the preseason. The team quit on James in postseason long before he quit on them. Now they've all quit on the regular season.
Sacramento Kings: F
2 of 31
Preseason: 27.5
Pace: 18
Pace: -52.44%
Midseason MVP: None
The only thing you can say positively about Sacramento is that they can look at Cleveland if they want to feel better about themselves. I haven't had the opportunity, or for that matter, the desire to see the Kings play much this year, so I don't know why last year's Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans, is going backwards. Between Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and the inevitable lottery pick from this year, they're bound to break out sooner or later. It was supposed to be sooner, but it's looking like later, so the Kings get an F.
Milwaukee Bucks: F
3 of 31
Preseason: 45.5
Pace: 32
Pace: -42.48%
Midseason MVP: Andrew Bogut
Extra Credit Awarded: C-
Many thought the Bucks would win the Central. Most thought at the least they would compete with the Bulls. But a funny thing happened on the way to the Bradley Center.
You know those scary insect and arachnid movies that were coming out for a while? Yeah, the Bucks have had a version of that this season, except the scary bug is the injury bug. They haven't been bitten, they've been eaten and had the marrow sucked from their bones.
They've had to have 12 different players start. No one has started all 41 games, in fact, no one has started more than 37 games. Only Bogut and Salmons have started more than 25. They've used 13 different starting lineups and no one lineup more than seven times this season. In short, it's not hard to find out why Milwaukee isn't doing as well as expected.
Because of that, they get the most extra credit of any team.
Houston Rockets: F
4 of 31
Preseason: 48.5
Pace: 36
Pace: -33.21
Midseason MVP: None
They started the season 5-12. Then they evened out to 16-16. Now they're at 20-25. In Texas, they have a saying. If you don't like the weather, wait a couple of hours, it'll change. Seems like the Rockets are like their weather. I have no idea why, as it seems to defy all logic, but it's the fact.
This isn't about Yao Ming, but his replacement, who is a full foot shorter. When their 6'6" center Chuck Hayes starts, they are 15-11. When he hasn't, they are 5-15.
I'd like to say they deserve some extra credit for this, but the Rockets should have come into the season expecting the possibility of getting thinned out at the center spot. When you've got one guy who has missed an entire year and another that's 36, you're going to have problems. They don't get extra credit because their woes are a lack of foresight.
They can still make a midseason trade though, and make it to the postseason.
Washington Wizards: F
5 of 31
Preseason: 32.5
Pace: 18
Pace: -52.44%
Midseason MVP: None
The Wizards pulled a little something something out of the Hogwarts School of Magic to get passed the Celtics in their last meeting, but that's not enough to keep them from a failing grade. Their 5-5 stretch in the last 10 games isn't either. Neither is the fact that they made a midseason trade and had to make adjustments. Not even the injuries to John Wall save them from their F.
None of those things matter because there's just no way I can justify passing a team that hasn't won on the road. No matter how you cut it, 0-20 on the road is failing.
Minnesota Timberwolves: F
6 of 31
Preseason: 23.5
Pace: 19
Pace: -23%
Midseason MVP: Kevin Love
When you have the lowest expectations in the entire NBA and you're still one of the six most "disappointing" teams, how can you expect a passing grade?
In Kevin Garnett's first year in Boston, the Celtics had 66 wins. Now in their fourth season sans KG, the Timberwolves have totaled 61 wins. I mean, that's a special kind of pathetic. The fact they can "disappoint" at all, particularly when they have an All-Star caliber player on the team, is just about the most extraordinary thing they've done in the post-Garnett era.
They are the only failing team to get an MVP, simply because you can't ask Love to do any more.
Charlotte Bobcats: D-
7 of 31
Preseason: 39.5
Pace: 33
Pace: -18.94%
Midseason MVP: D.J. Augustin
The Hornets were looking a lot worse off for a while. Since changing head coach to Paul Silas though, they have a winning record at 8-6. It was just enough to get them a passing grade. Heck, it's even possible they could make it back to the playoffs, albeit according to basketball-reference, a 3.6 percent chance.
Since the coaching change, both Augustine's scoring and assists are up, as the shackles are off of him. The Bobcats seem more relaxed now. The question is whether it's temporary or permanent.
Portland Trail Blazers: D-
8 of 31
Preseason: 51.5
Pace: 46
Pace: -12.96%
Midseason MVP: LaMarcus Aldridge
Extra Credit: B-
The Trail Blazers have been hit by injuries as well. In some ways not as bad as Milwuakee, in the sense that there hasn't been as many of them. In other ways it's worse, as they've lost two of their best players, Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, for the season. The loss of Roy, their most versatile player and biggest star, is especially brutal. Considering they are playing over .500 at all, it's an impressive performance.
As a result, they get the same extra credit as Milwaukee.
Los Angeles Clippers: D
9 of 31
Preseason: 36.5
Pace: 32
Pace: -12.69%
Midseason MVP: Blake Griffen
Extra Credit: C
The Clippers started off miserably, but the team is improving quickly. Guess who gets credit for that? Nope! Not him. I know what you're thinking. Blake Griffin, right?
He doesn't get credit for it. He's the midseason MVP, no question, but he didn't spark the turnaround. Nope, I see where you're going, it's not him either. Eric Gordon is a plenty nice player, but it's not him.
It's (now, don't laugh) Baron Davis. Yep. I said that right. On December 16th, Davis called a team meeting, where he basically told everyone, this is Griffin's and Gordon's team. The team determined they were going to protect Griffin. They resolved they weren't going to give up on the season.
Since then, they've gone 11-5 and won against the Bulls, Nuggets, Heat and Lakers. They are a team on the rise and they will finish with more than 37 wins. They get extra credit for their turnaround. Bump them up to a C.
Miami Heat: D
10 of 31
Preseason: 64.5
Pace: 58
Pace: -11.57%
Midseason MVP: LeBron James
The Heat are doing fine. Getting 58 wins is a nice achievement. If I were grading just their performance, I'd be giving them a much better grade, but I'm not grading their performance. I'm grading their performance against expectations, and it was expected they would win 64.5 games.
Now, those might have been unrealistic, but that's what they were. The Heat have failed to meet expectations, and that's why they get a D. Having said that, they are still my pick to win it all.
I guess now I've annoyed everyone, Heat fans for the D and everyone else for the pick.
Toronto Raptors: D+
11 of 31
Preseason: 26.5
Pace: 24
Pace: -9.55%
Midseason MVP: Andrea Bargnani
It remains to be seen what happens with this whole Peja Stojakovic thing, but you have to at least credit the Raptors with trying to do something, which is more than you can say about the Cavaliers. You knew they weren't going to be very good when Bosh left.
They're slightly behind preseason expectations, but not far off. They deserve a passing grade. They are better than Cleveland and will improve faster.
New Jersey Nets: D+
12 of 31
Preseason: 24.5
Pace: 22
Pace: -9.55%
Midseason MVP: Devin Harris
At least all the Anthony mess is over with, that is, until it starts up again. Then there's the whole deal with the arena. To build or not to build, that is the question. All in all, when is the last time a team on pace to win 22 games got this much daily press?
Brook Lopez has been disappointing this season. Both his field goal percentage and rebounding are worse than what they were last year, and he's at an age where he should still be showing marked improvement. Perhaps Favors will show some improvement soon. With Lopez, Favors and the draft picks the Nets have, they are better off building than trading anyway.
Phoenix Suns: C-
13 of 31
Preseason: 41.5
Pace: 39
Pace: -6.32%
Midseason MVP: Steve Nash
There's a lot of question about whether Steve Nash should be traded or not. The fact is, I'm not sure he can be traded. His 10 million dollar salary is actually pretty reasonable, but that's not the problem. Think of the contenders who could absorb that contract. None of them need a point guard. The only team he could really help is Miami, and they can't afford him.
Phoenix is better off keeping him around and keeping him happy as they rebuild. He's an intelligent, articulate, high character player who actually wants to be there instead of chasing rings. You have to respect that. A player like that can be a big help to mentoring young players. I can also see Nash having a successful coaching career after he retires. He'd probably prefer to stay in Phoenix and do that too.
Indiana Pacers: C-
14 of 31
Preseason: 33.5
Pace: 32
Pace: -4.75%
Midseason MVP: Danny Granger
On the bright side, the Pacers are second in the Central. On the down side, they are completely out of the "race" and have been since Thanksgiving. Tyler Hansbrough has already worked his way into the starting lineup and now Paul George might get there too. If not starting, he'll at least be the sixth man. Roy Hibbert is showing some big improvement on the season.
There are a lot of positives with this young team. The Pacers might be performing below expectations, but the future is not at all too shabby for the team. Look for them to have a stronger second half.
Detroit Pistons: C
15 of 31
Preseason: 30.5
Pace: 30
Pace: -2.18%
Midseason MVP: Rodney Stuckey
It's hard to believe it wasn't that long ago that this team was annually in the Conference Championships. Now they're a team in complete disarray. Rip Hamilton is sitting on the bench waiting to get traded. He hasn't been in a game since January 10th. Crazy, right?
Maybe there's a method to the madness though. The Pistons are 6-2 since benching Rip. It remains to be seen whether they can get a taker for his bloated contract or if they can maintain their initial success. It's something worth keeping an eye on though. Those last two playoff spots are up for grabs in the Eastern Conference.
Orlando Magic: C
16 of 31
Preseason: 54.5
Pace: 54
Pace: -0.85%
Midseason MVP: Dwight Howard
I was kind of surprised how quickly Orlando completely dismantled a team that had reached the finals just two years ago. I thought it seemed a little desperate. However, after a few games getting used to their new teammates, the Magic have been jellin' like a team that has a felon, even if that felon isn't finding his groove yet.
A big part of the reason, other than the obvious—Dwight Howard—is that Hedo Turkoglu is doing what he does so well. It seems like he just fits with them.
I considered giving the Magic extra credit for working through the trade and all. But in the end, I figured that's how they got back to preseason expectations.
Philadelphia 76ers: C+
17 of 31
Preseason: 34.5
Pace: 35
Pace: +.41%
Midseason MVP: Andre Iguodala
Iggy is having his worst season in a while, but it seems the trade rumors are getting put to bed and that might help. Elton Brand is having his best season with the 76ers. Jrue Holiday is having his best season as a pro. There are reasons to expect the 76ers will have a better second half than first.
They're 5-5 in their last ten and their opponents have an overall winning record. The 76ers currently hold that seventh playoff spot, and they should continue to do so.
Memphis Grizzlies: C+
18 of 31
Preseason: 38.5
Pace: 39
Pace: -1.57%
Midseason MVP: Zach Randolph
In the preseason, the Grizzlies' owner, Michael Heisley, promised the team would make the playoffs. To borrow an adage from the south, "Them's be's big words," especially in the Western Conference.
They are looking like they may be able to back them up though, as they are perched in the ninth spot right now, 3.5 games behind the Trail Blazers. Hollinger's playoff odds have them as a 54 percent chance of getting there. If they do make it to the postseason, they would have not only exceeded preseason expectations, they would have raised them and met them. Give Memphis credit for fighting this one out.
Los Angeles Lakers: B-
19 of 31
Preseason: 56.5
Pace: 58
Pace: +3.09%
Midseason MVP: Kobe Bryant
The Lakers are pulling it together. They did have a struggle for a while, but they are a two-time champion. They're working things out and right now, they are one of the hotter teams in the NBA.
The next couple of weeks should be interesting, as they have games coming up against a lot of the top teams, including Utah, Boston, San Antonio and New Orleans. If they sweep those four games, they'll certainly put a stamp on the season that they are still the Champs, and any ring winning is going to have to come through the City of Angels.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B-
20 of 31
Preseason: 51.5
Pace: 53
Pace: +3.53%
Midseason MVP: Russell Westbrook
Were preseason expectations too high for the young Thunder? Apparently not, as they are actually ahead of expectations. The emergence of Russell Westbrook as a premier NBA point guard has to be a big reason for that. In fact, it's Westbrook I'm giving the midseason MVP award to. He's the team leader in PER and particularly at the beginning of the season, when Durant was struggling a bit (for Durant), Westbrook was carrying the team more.
The two might form the best tandem in the NBA right now.
The Thunder have a big weakness though. They don't have a championship defense. In fact, they have a pretty bad defense. They are 21st in the NBA in points against, and 19th in defensive rating. To go somewhere in the playoffs, that's just not going to fly.
Utah Jazz: B
21 of 31
Preseason: 48.5
Pace: 50
Pace: +3.68%
Midseason MVP: Deron Williams
Williams just hasn't missed a beat. Change his entire frontcourt, he doesn't care. He just keeps feeding and scoring.
That's the one thing that Jazz fans seem to agree on. Beneath the surface though, it seems there's some concern from Jazz fans that it's the same ol' same ol'. A good, but not quite good enough Jazz team that executes the pick and roll with precision, but isn't going to make it past the second round.
Unfortunately, that's about how they've played so far this season. One of two things needs to happen for Utah. Either A) they trade Kirilinko to New Jersey and get someone for him. They're interested and we all know they are willing to overpay in order to just do something. Harris too much to ask? Yes, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.
Or B) They just get hot at the right time. When the Jazz are hot, they are really, really good.
Dallas Mavericks: B
22 of 31
Preseason: 49.5
Pace: 53
Pace: +7.27%
Midseason MVP: Dirk Nowitzki
Extra Credit: B+
Dirk's value to the team became apparent when he went down. It's interesting that now Peja Stojacavich might be becoming a Maverick. Remember when the debate was over which was the best Euro, Peja or Dirk? There's really not much of a debate over that now, is there?
The Mavericks were doing so much better that, even in spite of their recent struggles, they are still above expectations. Due to the double injury that caused it with both Caron Butler and Dirk going down at the same time, they get a bit of extra credit and their final grade goes to a B+.
Denver Nuggets: B+
23 of 31
Preseason: 43.5
Pace: 48
Pace: +8.69%
Midseason MVP: Carmelo Anthony
I wonder if this is in Anthony's Ipod. I find that all the incredulity over the constant questions and the booing and all of that are being treated as though this was something happening to Anthony rather than happening because of Anthony.
He is the one who started it all this summer. It's almost like he was coveting all the free agent attention everyone else was getting.
The fact is that any situation he gets traded into isn't likely to be better than the situation he's already in, for whatever that's worth. If Anthony really wants to settle everything, then all he has to do is say, "I don't want out." Not saying that means he's trying to keep his options open.
Denver's made it past the first round only one time with Anthony. Maybe he owes it to Denver to stick around and give them one more chance before he runs out somewhere else.
Atlanta Hawks: B+
24 of 31
Preseason: 46.5
Pace: 53
Pace: +11.95%
Midseason MVP: Al Horford
Atlanta has had to deal with some injuries and lately it seems that theirs is a revolving door of injuries. Joe Johnson goes out and when he comes back, Marvin Williams gets injured. Then when Williams gets back, Horford goes down. At least for Atlanta's sake, they aren't compounding.
Speaking of Horford, add him to the list of most underrated players in the league. He's become one of the top centers in the league defensively. He's averaging over 16 points and almost 10 rebounds. He shoots 81 percent from the stripe, which is very good for a center. His true shooting percentage is almost at .600. It's time to give Horford his props.
The Hawks though, are not going to make it out of the first round of the playoffs. They held steady while everyone else moved forward. They don't appear to be considering a move now either. That's not going to work in today's NBA.
When the teams that are better already are getting even better and you aren't, you're getting worse by comparison.
Boston Celtics: A-
25 of 31
Preseason: 54.5
Pace: 63
Pace: +13.35%
Midseason MVP: Rajon Rondo
Extra Credit: A
To say they are playing fantastic would be an understatement. They literally have four (or five?) potential Hall of Famers in their starting lineup. Add to that arguably the deepest bench in the league and it shouldn't be much of a surprise they are doing so well, but it is.
They've been hampered by injuries and they are still doing this well. Rondo missed time. Garnett missed time. And don't forget that Kenrick Perkins has yet to play a game. When this team is all together, they will be frightening. They lead the NBA in made field goal percentage and are second in field goal percentage against.
New York Knicks: A-
26 of 31
Preseason: 35.5
Pace: 42
Pace: +3.53%
Midseason MVP: Amar'e Stoudemire
The Knicks are doing better than expected, but let's not get carried away. They aren't a contender yet. Would Carmelo Anthony make them one? I'm not sure he would.
Based on offensive and defensive ratings, they have a top 10 offense in the NBA and a bottom 10 defense. Is more offense and even less defense what they really need?
There's a reason D'Antoni's teams never won it all in Phoenix, even when they had a superstar point guard feeding the ball to Amar'e. The reason is that you need to have a defense to win a championship.
Not too long ago, I did a study on what the most consistent factors were in previous NBA championships.
From that I determined "the most compelling consistency in previous NBA champions is Defensive Rating. Nearly half (16 teams) have finished in the top three in the league, 23 have been in the top five and only two teams—the '01 Lakers and the '95 Rocket—were outside of the top 10. When it comes to winning championships, nothing seems to matter as much as stopping the other team when they have the ball."
Golden State Warriors: A
27 of 31
Preseason: 30.5
Pace: 36
Pace: +15.85%
Midseason MVP: Monta Ellis
Obviously, if we're grading on straight up performance, the Warriors aren't getting an A, but remember we're grading against expectations and the Warriors are winning at a rate better than expected. Monta Ellis has been a big part of the reason why, but he's another one who needs to start adding some defense to his play.
All in all, you have to give them some props. Outside of their seven game losing streak, they have a winning record, believe it or not. They are another one of those below .500 teams that could work their way up to .500 and earn that final playoff spot in the West.
Chicago Bulls: A
28 of 31
Preseason: 46.5
Pace: 56
Pace: +16.85%
Midseason MVP: Derrick Rose
Extra Credit: A+
Yes, I'm a huge Bulls fan. No, that's not why they get extra credit.
They get it for the same reason as the other teams that have gotten it for, excessive injury issues. The Bulls have played 44 games. Of those 44, they've played nine with their whole starting five. They've played four with two of their starting five out.
And this isn't Keith Bogans that's missing. It's been their three best players that have missed those games. Mostly it's been Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose has missed one game. In spite of that, they are sitting on the third seed in the Eastern Conference and within reach of the top seed.
Most would have considered that seating at full strength with a first year head coach overly optimistic. If you told them that the Bulls would be missing that much time from Boozer and Noah, they would have called it impossible. Yet, there the Bulls are, in spite of the adversity. It's the reason that Derrick Rose isn't just the Bulls MVP at midseason, he's the NBA's.
New Orleans Hornets: A+
29 of 31
Preseason: 41.5
Pace: 53
Pace: +21.41%
Midseason MVP: Chris Paul
The Hornets weren't really on anyone's radar at the beginning of the season. They are now. If they weren't last week, they sure are now. After blowing out Atlanta and San Antonio by a combined 65 points, they sure grabbed some people's attention.
After a red hot 11-1 start, they sputtered a bit, but now it seems as if they're going again. When you have a new coach and you're learning a new system, it's not unreasonable that you're going to go through some midseason struggles. Chris Paul should be in more MVP consideration than he is. Perhaps this last week's winning ways will get him more in the conversation.
San Antonio Spurs: A+
30 of 31
Preseason: 49.5
Pace: 69
Pace: +28.22%
Midseason Co-MVPs: Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker
The only thing surprising about the Spurs being this surprising is that it's surprising at all. Parker, Ginobili and Duncan have won three rings together. Over the last decade, the Spurs have won almost 20 more games than any other team in the NBA. That the Spurs would be in the hunt for the championship should have been in the "duh" category of thinking.
That might have something to do with the last two seasons, where they have been winning in the low 50s and haven't gotten past the second round of the playoffs. A lot of that had to do with a steady run of injuries though. This year, the team has been healthy, especially in their own big three.
They've also reinvented themselves and that's a big part of what has people talking. The offense has been taken over by the talents of Ginobili and Parker and they've become the third best team in offensive rating, while maintaining a good defensive presence that's seventh in the NBA. Thats why Gregg Popovich gets my midseason Coach of the Year.
Midseason Awards
31 of 31
MVP: Derrick Rose
Most Improved Player: Raymond Felton
Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich
Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin
Defensive Player of the Year: Andrew Bogut
Sixth Man of the Year: Jamal Crawford
