Liverpool: How Stats Justify Club's Luis Suarez Hunt (FSG's Moneyball Approach?)

As the winter window heads to its most happening climax, after the horrible first half of the season, the Reds look forward to some desperate reinforcements.

With the name of Luis Suarez doing the rounds most frequently, I have hereby tried to paint a picture as to why the present owners would love to make the Uruguayan their top target, in spite of the criticism that most people consider about players coming from lesser leagues to the Premier League not materializing into success stories.

Most Liverpool fans already know how John W Henry and Co. took the Boston Red Sox back to their glory days. The method that the Red Sox used under Henry to recruit players has often been called “moneyball,” taking inspiration from the way the legendary Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s built their baseball team purely based on the stats of players from a cheap market to achieve phenomenal success.

Although John W Henry and Co. has not always gone for exactly the cheapest on the market, like Beane tried, the general manager he recruited, Theo Epstein, has always considered the statistical figures of every player recruited with great scrutiny, leading to similar success as Beane, hence the association.

Now although statistics are not essentially as vital in football as they are in baseball, a browse through the upcoming slides will still paint an interesting picture. Here in this slideshow, I have tried to make a comparison of Luis Suarez with the top strikers primarily of the Premier League who have come to England from the presumably weaker or rather lower-rated leagues by Football Associations around the world. The parameter I have used here to do so is the "goals/match" criteria, thus exhibiting the striking abilities of the forwards on an even scale.

(Here I have excluded players bought in below the age of 20, for the mere fact that most of them have played very few matches to give a clear indication.)

Emmanuel Adebayor (From Togo to France to Being a Gunner and Then a Citizen!)

Emmanuel Adebayor, although a controversial character in Arsenal's recent past, is still one of the better strikers in the Premier League.

Starting his senior career from as young as 13 with Sporting Club de Lome, Adebayor came to the fore with his career with Metz in France. In his four-year spell at both Metz B and Metz, he scored 19 goals in 62 appearances, thus scoring at 0.30 per match, which is about a little less than one goal every three matches.

Judging by the fact that he was still only 19 when he left Metz, his performance spoke something about his latent potential.

Adebayor joined Monaco in 2003 and scored a total of 18 goals in 79 matches for them in three years, at a rate of 0.22 per match, which wasn't exactly great. However, he was then snapped up by Arsenal, and in his three-year spell at the club with the Gunners, he scored 46 in 109 matches at a rate of 0.42 per match, which was almost double his previous scoring rate. Surely the peer influence had a marked influence on his scoring, but then he was never phenomenal at best.

The Togo man then left for Manchester City and so far has scored 15 in 34 again at a rate of 0.44! Thus with a good enough squad, his record didn't dip.

Robin van Persie (Arsenal from Feyenoord)

Although Van Persie joined Arsenal way back in 2004, when he was just 21 years old, the fact that he had already played as the main striker of Feyenoord by then for the best part of three years (2001-04) brings him to the list.

In all, Van Persie scored 15 goals for the Dutch giants in merely 59 matches, which accounts to a strike rate of about 0.254 goals per match, or just slightly better than one goal in every four matches.

Considering his ability to assist, dribble past defenders and his tender age, he certainly did look potent enough for the Premier League.

Arsene Wenger bought him in 2004, and the player has been a success when fit, scoring 51 in 142 so far, i.e. almost 0.36 goals a match, or better than one goal in three matches played.

Carlos Tevez (from Boca Juniors to Corinthians to the Premier League)

Carlos Tevez started his impressive career at the age of 16 with Boca Juniors and then moved to the Corinthians three years later.

He, however, joined West Ham in 2006 and then moved on to Manchester United and then to Manchester City, thus starting an impressive career in the Premier League.

On the goals/match count Tevez does make an impressive graph too. He scored 26 in 75 for Boca Juniors, a scoring rate of 0.34, and then went on to score 31 of 47 with the Corinthians, a scoring rate of 0.65. After a freak start at West Ham where he scored just seven in 26 at a rate of 0.26, he went on to better that slightly by scoring 19 in 63 for Manchester United, a scoring rate of 0.30.

In both of his last two clubs mentioned he couldn't really fit into the side for multiple reasons. However, when again given a full-fledged run, as he is given now with Manchester City, he has scored 37 from 55, a strike rate of 0.67—very similar to his stats at Corinthians!

There may be arguments of City being a strong side, etc., but judging by the assists and Tevez's work rate, he looks completely to be a player who should play for the big clubs, and thus comparing as above made sense to me.

Didier Drogba (From Marseille to Chelsea)

Didier Drogba has been a revelation. The Ivory Coast international's fling with success came a little late, however.

Drogba started his career a little late with Le Mans, an unknown French club to many around the world, at the age of 20 and then moved on to Guingamp before joining Marseille and then ultimately Chelsea.

His scoring rate is as follows. At Le Mans he scored 12 in 64 at a forgettable rate of 0.18, which, however, took a giant leap as he moved to Guingamp, where he played a single season, scoring 20 in 45 matches, a scoring rate of 0.44.

His meteoric rise continued with Marseille, where too he played just a single season but scored 19 goals in 35 matches, at a rate of 0.54! Thus, that took his total tally in his last two years in France to an impressive 39 goals in 80, just one goal short of a 0.50 strike rate or a goal in every two matches. Impressive indeed.

He then came to Chelsea, and although he has been in England much longer, his record says 92 out of 185, again a rate of 0.49. Get a clue!

Dennis Bergkamp (From Ajax to Inter to the Gunners)

Dennis Bergkamp is a legend both to the Netherlands and Arsenal. However, he has been more of a second striker than an out-and-out striker.

His record (impact-wise) has been pretty sinusoidal though, thus exhibiting the fact that sometimes playing conditions and also the manager and teammates can have a considerable influence even on successful players.

After scoring a mammoth 103 goals for Ajax in just 185 games, at a rate of 0.55, or better than one goal every second match played, Bergkamp moved to Inter Milan, where due to the aforesaid reasons (which could also be considered the flaws of this analysis), his scoring rate fell to an abysmal 0.25, as he scored a mere 11 goals in 52 games.

He was also laughed at and cynically given the term "donkey of the week," given to the worst player of the week. Adding insult to injury, the fans also named the term "Bergkamp of the week."

Now, though, being called by the same "Bergkamp of the Week" would seem more praise than anything else—all because of the legendary Dutchman's endeavour at Arsenal, where he was signed by Bruce Rioch, a year before Arsene Wenger came in.

Bergkamp scored a total of 87 goals in 316 games for the Gunners. That wasn't a huge improvement on his scoring rate, which read 0.27; however, it was his ability to assist the strikers, along with his useful contribution, which grants him legendary status!

Ruud van Nistelrooy (Another Dynamic Dutch Import!)

Ruud van Nistelrooy was one of the best strikers in the Premier League in the last decade, if not the best among the Red Devils.

Van Nistelrooy started his career with Den Bosch in the Netherlands at the age of 18 and scored 17 goals in 69 matches for them in three years from 1994-97, at a rate of 0.24, or about a goal in almost four matches.

He then moved to Heerenveen, where his scoring rate improved to 0.41 (13 in 31). This was followed by an explosive three-year spell at PSV Eindhoven, where he netted 62 in 67 appearances and grabbed attention much like Suarez does now. His scoring rate almost 0.93 per match!

Amidst all this Manchester United signed the striker, whereby he scored a massive 95 goals in 150 matches at an impressive rate of 0.63 per match! Thus, although there was a dip in his scoring record from the Eredivisie, it still stayed impressive enough.

However, the goal-scoring prowess of the Dutch veteran striker still very much follows him. After quitting England and United, he scored a total of 46 in 68 for Real Madrid and so far has scored 11 in 26 for Hamburg—scoring rates of 0.67 and 0.42 respectively. Very impressive indeed.

Thierry Henry (The Best Striker in the Premier League Era?)

At least as far as scoring record goes, it is hard to better Thierry Henry, who was not a striker in the first place when bought by Arsene Wenger's Arsenal.

Henry was a winger who was on the verge of eternal anonymity before being spotted and used as a central forward by Wenger.

Henry's record before joining Arsenal was a mere 23 goals in 121 matches for both Monaco and his solitary spell at Juventus combined—a scoring rate of 0.19!

Not at all the makings of a player destined to score 174 goals in 254 matches at Arsenal, was it? Considering what the pundits claim to be far tougher competition! 

Henry, however, did it and at a scoring rate of 0.68 per match, or in other words, at a rate of slightly more than two goals every three matches! Surely, the lower players not doing good enough in England must be busted, therefore, but no, he was an exception, as people will tell.

But exceptions are also possibilities!

Finally, Luis Suarez, the Uruguyan (Nacional to Ajax to...Liverpool?)

Luis Suarez was already perceived as a phenomenon in his country and at his native club Nacional, but then, as is often the case, they had to sell him to book the profits early.

He then moved to Europe to the Netherlands and Groningen. After a brief but impressive spell there, he moved to Ajax.

The Uruguayan's scoring rate at both Nacional and Groningen was 0.37 (10 in 27 for Nacional and 11 in 29 with Groningen), which in the company of better players at Ajax soared to more than twice that value to 0.75 (81 goals in 108)!

Added to that, Suarez was also the top scorer in all Europe last season, scoring 49 goals in all competitions!

Going by all the earlier instances as cited, there is always a reason to be optimistic if Liverpool goes after Suarez and gets him. At least going by all the statistics that John W Henry and Co. are used to with their spell at the Boston Red Sox, there is almost no one as good as Suarez on whom they must choose to spend.

Now whether this "moneyball"-type approach is compatible with football remains to be seen...even though the money involved with the game keeps rising!