NBA Draft 2011: Comparing the Top 10 Prospects To Their NBA Counterparts
The NBA Draft may be the greatest equalizing force the NBA has to offer for struggling teams. With the expectation that higher draft picks will lead to better players, the bottom-feeders of the league are supposed to re-stock their talent pool so they can one day retake their spot at the top of the totem pole.
However, so often the same teams end up at the bottom of the standings every year. Perhaps it is bad management, a bad budget or just luck, but whatever it is, it is clear that the NBA Draft is extremely important.
With valuable young players coming on rookie scale contracts, the Draft is the best opportunity to acquire low-cost talent, a huge commodity in the NBA.
If teams want to get better, the best way to do so is to improve their drafting, no easy feat. Still, with better scouting, more effort and smarter executives, it is an achievable goal.
Can a supposedly "can't miss" prospect fail? Yes, a top prospect can easily fail, an element of risk is inherent in drafting a college player. Under the right circumstances, a general manager can maximize his chances of netting a top player.
Without further ado, here are the 10 top prospects, along with their NBA counterparts, who are likely to have the most success in the NBA.
10. Donatas Motiejunas: Andrea Bargnani
1 of 10
Motiejunas, a potential lottery pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, backed out because of concerns about his body and his consistency. So far this season in Italy, Motiejunas has delivered.
Playing a larger role for Benetton Treviso, Motiejunas has looked far more comfortable this year and has seen his statistics improve to a certain degree in this incipient season. He's scoring more, hitting at a higher efficiency and starting to think his way around the basketball court.
When comparing him to his counterpart, Andrea Bargnani, it is necessary to look at both the positives and the negatives.
Much like Bargnani, he's a highly skilled, legitimate seven-foot big man who can hit the outside jumper and run the floor. He's excellent in the pick-and-pop, is a smart passer out of both the post and perimeter and is fundamentally sound.
Unfortunately, he struggles with some of the same issues Bargnani does, as he isn't yet strong enough to establish post position, is a subpar rebounder and is a horrible defender.
Even with his struggles, he would be a great value in the late lottery. With some work in the gym, he could be a star, but he will require patience.
9. John Henson: Anthony Randolph
2 of 10
Often compared to the inconsistent Knicks forward Anthony Randolph for his strengths and shortcomings, John Henson is a tantalizing prospect for many NBA scouts and executives.
With freakish athleticism, strong rebounding and shot-blocking skills, Henson has the potential to change so many shots on the defensive end that it's very easy to look past his weaknesses. Unfortunately for Henson, he is very similar to Randolph in that he has many shortcomings.
An absolute string bean, Henson has nowhere near the required strength to defend inside and there is some legitimate concern that he may never become strong enough. He has little to no game outside of the paint, a small divergence from Randolph, but they are very similar in that they have no consistent jump shot.
He could become a solid NBA forward who blocks tons of shots, but just as the case was with Anthony Randolph, he has a huge bust potential.
8. Terrence Jones: Lamar Odom
3 of 10
Perhaps it is due to his left-handed shot which looks so much like Odom's, but Terrence Jones has long been compared to the lanky Lakers forward. While the left-handed shot certainly plays a factor, the comparison is not without basis.
With his incredible length as a combo forward, Jones even looks like Odom physically. However, when he starts playing, the comparison looks even more close. Few players of Odom's length and athleticism can claim to pass and handle the ball like Odom can, but Jones certainly can.
He can score in a variety of ways, able to shoot from outside, penetrate and even score a bit from the post at times, just like Odom can.
While people may not appreciate Odom as much as is merited, being compared to him is high praise for Terrence Jones.
7. Kemba Walker: Aaron Brooks
4 of 10
In evaluating NBA Draft prospects, there is always an extremely fragile balance between rewarding success on the college level and weighing upside. Players like Adam Morrison, Christian Laettner and even Juan Dixon had impressive college careers but went on to bust in the NBA, while others like Larry Bird and Michael Jordan went on to have extremely successful careers.
In Kemba Walker's case, while he lacks a lot that scouts look for in an NBA point guard, his performances have simply been too good to look past. He's taken over games late, shown incredible skills and has improved in finding teammates. While he will never be a true point guard who looks to pass first, he can be a dominant scoring point guard in the NBA, similar to Aaron Brooks.
Both of these players were written off as legitimate top prospects because of their size and shoot-first mentalities, but Brooks has already proven to be a more than adequate NBA point guard. There's little doubt that Kemba Walker can do the same.
6. Jonas Valanciunas: Pau Gasol
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This year's NBA Draft's international class is headed by three talented power forwards: the aforementioned Donatas Motiejunas, the Czech Jan Vesely and Jonas Valanciunas. Naturally, one of them is going to be compared to one of the most successful European power forwards in the league, Pau Gasol.
However, while it may be seemingly based upon an overused stereotype, the comparison is extremely close.
Valanciunas, much like Gasol, has developed into one of the more polished big men in Europe, flashing ball skills around the rim, incredible maturity and brains for a player his age, and an extreme drive to compete.
He's not the polished low-post scorer Gasol is at this point in his career, but neither was Gasol when he was 18 years old. Having seen Valanciunas play on multiple occasions, it is clear that the more you see of him, the more he impresses you.
While he may never be considered to be a top-three big man in the NBA like Gasol, there is no doubt he is one of the most impressive draft prospects in 2011, and whoever drafts him will be getting very good value.
5. Harrison Barnes: Luol Deng
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Perhaps no player has seen his draft stock fall as much as Harrison Barnes has over the course of this college basketball season. Expected to dominate from day one, Barnes has wilted under the lofty expectations and has plummeted down most draft boards from the No. 1 spot he was situated in at the start of the year.
Because of his struggles against higher competition, it is necessary to temper the expectations for Barnes and his NBA future. Many compared him to Kobe Bryant for his all-around game and impressive athleticism, but after seeing him in a college jersey, his career path appears to be heading more like Luol Deng's than Kobe Bryant's.
With NBA length and athleticism, Barnes has a body that appears ready from day one, but his offensive game needs some major work.
Much like Deng, Barnes is capable of hitting mid-range jump shots with ease, but struggles when pushed out further to the three-point line. He's smart and even-keeled, but even he is starting to appear frustrated playing at UNC this year. If he cannot handle the pressure of the NBA, he's going to struggle immensely.
While Barnes may still be a star, the odds of him are much more likely that he simply becomes a somewhat improved version of Luol Deng who helps his team but never carries it.
4. Jared Sullinger: Elton Brand
7 of 10
Another prospect challenging the balance between on-court production and upside, Jared Sullinger has been as good as any big man in college basketball this year.
Much like Kemba Walker, Sullinger has less than ideal size at his position, and has given some scouts reservations about promoting him as a top draft pick. Unlike the prototypical NBA big man prospect who plays above the rim, Sullinger's game is predicated on craft, toughness and a huge body which helps him establish presence down low.
Much like Elton Brand who was draft first overall in the 1999 NBA Draft, Sullinger is an absolute load in the paint. He rebounds like a machine, can score in a variety of ways and can defend with physicality.
Perhaps with some better luck in the injury department, Sullinger can be the player that Brand was before knee injuries struck for longer than five years.
3. Enes Kanter: Andrew Bogut
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The biggest unknown in the draft, Enes Kanter will likely not have played a single minute of competitive basketball for all of 2011 before the draft. For that reason, it is very difficult to ascertain exactly who he will be like when he reaches the NBA.
Is he Nazr Mohammad? Cole Aldrich? Zach Randolph? In the end, the only player who Kanter can be compared to is Andrew Bogut.
While Kanter doesn't have the seven-foot size that Bogut has, he makes up for it with an impressive wingspan that allows him to play bigger than his listed height of 6'10". He has a great feel for the game of basketball, blocks shots and is a polished post scorer.
With some work, he can become a more consistent defender and game-changer on that end of the floor like Bogut is. He may be a better shooter than the Australian center, but otherwise, the comparison is true.
Size has a tendency to float to the top as the draft approaches, and don't be surprised if it happens again. With the uncertainty about the first overall pick, Kanter could be a sleeper pick for that slot.
2. Perry Jones: Tracy McGrady
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Perry Jones, like many who have come before him, is a player that draws a variety of reactions when talking about him to scouts. While some are concerned with his positional uncertainty, others his less than consistent performance, the reviews are almost unilaterally positive.
The biggest question is about his position. Where do you stick a 6'11" player with point guard ball-handling and passing skills and big man rebounding and shot-blocking skills? It is almost as if he is too versatile at this time. Despite the fact that he likely will end up as a power forward in the NBA, his closest comparison has to be Tracy McGrady.
In fact, on an offensively challenged Baylor team, some have even suggested that he run the point as he is clearly the team's best passer and playmaker, much as the 6'8" McGrady is now running the point for the Pistons.
Whether Jones is a shooting guard or power forward, he is going to create numerous mismatches for whatever team is trying to guard him. Most power forwards will not be able to stay with him, and shooting guards cannot stop him from scoring over them.
The only concern is that despite his incredible physical gifts, he has not yet dominated on the collegiate level. Still, picking him in the top three would be a smart move for any team looking to get better.
1. Kyrie Irving: Chris Paul
10 of 10
Just the fact that Irving is capable of being mentioned in the same breath as Chris Paul says a lot about him and who he is as a basketball player.
Bridging the gap between on-court production and future potential, Kyrie Irving truly appears to be the complete package when it comes to NBA Draft prospects for 2011.
While Irving is a better scorer at this point in his career than Paul was at Wake Forest, their games are very similar. Both are extremely quick point guards who excel at getting to the basket and either setting up teammates or scoring themselves.
Paul was a stronger distributor at a younger age, but Irving has shown enough skills as a pure point guard to demonstrate to scouts that he could easily reach the level of an elite NBA point guard.
For now, his only issue relates to health. Because of a big toe injury, Irving has been unable to play since his eighth game in the season, limiting his visibility to scouts. Still, that is a poor excuse to not draft him No. 1. He is as low risk a prospect as there is in the draft, plays a premium position and could potentially turn a team around. That is a first overall draft pick.
