NBA Power Rankings: Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and the NBA's 10 Best Two Guards
Michael Jordan is the best shooting guard in the history of the game. There's almost no argument about that. But who are the best shooting guards in the NBA right now?
It's a position that is probably the most difficult in many ways. The shooting guard is compelled to take most of his shots from outside, countering its only advantage—scoring—with an inherently lower field goal percentage. I wanted to see statistically who the best shooting guards in the NBA were.
Now most of the time when people do these kinds of stat analyses, most of the talk is all about what they do with the ball. Sometimes defense is mentioned, but it's taken as an afterthought. The fact is that most NBA players spend just as much time on defense as they do on offense. Their is a stronger tie to defense and championships than offenses and championships, though both are historically necessary.
Thus, in my rankings I take both offense and defense into equal account. The formula I use is listed below. The order of the rankings is entirely objective. While I understand and agree that "stats don't mean everything" I have elected to not change the order or the laws of math to fit my opinion.
There are times where I feel that the intangibles aren't measured by the objective, and I will note those in the commentary. However it should also be pointed out that sometimes the stats actually do say something. By objectively quantifying things we can actually discover things that we might not have been made aware of.
Most significant to these rankings will be the effect of adding in defense as an equal consideration with offense. Some players that would never make a list like this are on it because they are outstanding defensive players. Others that would be on it are not because they are bad defensively. When reviewing these remember, it's not merely an offensive measure. The formula I used is below.
Since defense is very hard to measure, I used a formula that includes defensive rating and Opponent PER. Opponent PER is to measure on the ball defense, DRtg help defense. oPER counts twice as much as DRtg, and both are measure against the average among the averages of the top shooting guard for every NBA team. In essence they are ranked relative to how they compare to one another.
One other qualifier is that I didn't select the starters from every team, but the player who played the most minutes at shooting guard from every team.
Pts+(2*Asts)+(1.05(RB+BLK+STL))-(1.05*(TO+MFG+(MFT/2)))+(AVG PER)+(AVG DRtg-DRtg)+((AVG oPER-OPer))*2)
Missing The List
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There are some key players who aren't on the list. They aren't on for one or both of two reasons. These two reasons are offensive subtractions and defense. Players who produce a lot but also miss a lot of shots and turn over the ball, and/or play poor defensively sometimes will miss the list for that reason.
While I understand that some will point at certain things and discount the rankings as ridiculous because of that, I think that it speaks for itself. You can be very productive, but so can your opponent. If you outscore your opponent 13-5 on 53 percent shooting it's better for your team than if you outscore your opponent 21-17 on 40 percent. In other words, efficient offense and defense count too, not just big offensive numbers. Here are some notables who didn't make the list.
Monta Ellis (12): In terms of pure production, Ellis was the top of the list. However he also had the most subtracts for offensive inefficiency and the fourth lowest defensive score among the players considered. That was enough to drop him to 13th on the list overall. If defense weren't a factor, even with his inefficiency Ellis would be second on the list. It's his horrible defense that does him in.
Landry Fields (11): I wanted to put him on this list not because he's notably absent, but because he's notably high. While Fields is not a high powered scorer, he is an efficient one. He rebounds well. He plays solid defense. All of these things together actually place him higher than Ellis. If it weren't for Blake Griffin, Fields would be the Rookie of the Year, even over John Wall, based on his consistent, outstanding play.
Kevin Martin (14): As with Ellis, so with Martin. Martin would have made the list at number seven with an offense only approach. His defense though makes an overall average player.
Stephen Jackson (15): Jackson is generally regarded as a good defensive player, however his opponent PER says otherwise. For me personally it was a surprise to see him at the fifth highest oPER among all twos.
10: Jason Terry
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Offense: 17.9 (12)
Defense: 20.7 (11)
Total: 38.6
Jason Terry, a.k.a. Jett has not been the starting shooting guard for the Mavericks most of the season, but he's played 64 percent of the minutes at that position. He's a balanced shooting guard playing capably on both offense and defense. He's also one of the Mavericks' key clutch players, scoring 41.4 points per 48 minutes of clutch time minutes.
9: Eric Gordon
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Offense: 23.7 (5)
Defense: 15.2 (17)
Total: 38.9
Eric Gordon is flying a bit under the radar. He's rapidly becoming one of the better guards in the NBA, though his star quality seems to be lagging a bit. Offensively he's producing at the fifth best rate of any shooting guard, and he's defensively competent.
Has anyone noticed that the Clippers have won seven of 10? They're on their way to being an improved team. They won't make the playoffs this year, but they have a collection of young talent that must have Clips fans being optimistic for the first time since...ever? It wouldn't hurt if they were able to obtain a new owner though.
8: Brandon Roy
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Offense: 16.74 (16)
Defense: 22.95 (8)
Total: 54.85
There's no question that Roy is having a bad year due to his injury issues. His numbers are down across the board. He has been one of the NBA's best players for the past few seasons, but playing in an obscure West Coast out of sight Portland team has diminished his star power.
It's notable that his defense isn't suffering as much as his offense. Defense is a largely effort measure, and his maintaining a high level of defense speaks well of the character of the man. One can only hope that he's able to rebound from the injuries and get back to being himself. At his peak, he's a spectacularly fun watch.
7: Vince Carter
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Offense: 17.06 (14)
Defense: 25.75 (4)
Total: 59.16
On his new team Vince Carter is joined with Grant Hill, a combination which intrigues me as the two are both players who once were two of the most amazing, watchable offensive talents in the NBA. Both have had a series of knee injuries which have slowed them down and diminished their offensive abilities. Both have somewhat reinvented themselves as outstanding defensive players. Vince Carter will always be known for his dunks but I don't know if people realize how much he's improved defensively.
6: Ronnie Brewer
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Offense: 11.3 (26)
Defense: 33.4 (1)
Total: 61.7
If you think that you're surprised that Ronnie Brewer is on my list, you're not alone. I'm surprised too. But as I said in the opening slide, it's all objective, and I'm not changing anything. How did Brewer end up here? Because of the opposite of the reasons that left Ellis off of it. He is the second most efficient of all the guards and he is far and away the best defensively.
Brewer knows who he is, and is one of the best players on the baseline in the NBA. He doesn't extend himself beyond his capacity offensively and is an absolute shut down defender. If you can't be D-Wade or Kobe, shut them down.
5: Joe Johnson
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Offense: 22.4 (6)
Defense: 22.7 (9)
Total: 45.2
Is Joe Johnson worth a max contract? The Atlanta Hawks think he is. Here's a tidbit that might support that. Since 2005 there are four players that are averaging 20 points, five assists and four rebounds per game over that span. Joe Johnson is one of them; the other three are Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dywane Wade. How's that for pretty good company? He might not be at their stature, but he's only a notch below.
4: Ray Allen
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Offense: 20.5 (9)
Defense: 25.7 (5)
Total: 46.2
Remember when Ray Allen was a defensive liability? My how things have changed. He's still an offensive threat but his defense is there too. Both offensively and defensively what make the Celtics so good is that they are so balanced. All five positions they get exactly what they should be getting from every player. Ray Allen may be one of the great pure shooters in the game's history. He only needs 38 more three-point field goals right now to assume the all-time lead from Reggie Miller.
3: Kobe Bryant
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Offense: 25.59 (3)
Defense: 23.14 (7)
Total: 48.7
While much has been made about Kobe's shooting and the Lakers winning or losing, it's been lost that this has actually been one of Kobe's most efficient seasons overall. While he's technically third here, this is merely an objective ranking. There's simply no measurement to quantify Kobe's intangibles. You could also argue the same for the two ahead of him though.
Still, wherever he ranks here with his knees showing the mileage they have on them, as long as Kobe Bryant is a Laker, the Lakers will be a legitimate contender for the NBA Championship. Just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers (55 points! OUCH!!)
2: Manu Ginobili
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Offense: 24.1 (4)
Defense: 26.7 (3)
Total: 50.8
Manu Ginobili has been getting some MVP hype this season and deservedly so. He doesn't produce massive offensive numbers. He's not going to go off and rip 50 on you on any given night, but he's going to give you respectable offensive production within the rhythm of the offense. He's going to play shut down defense. He's worth at least one highlight play on each end of the ball every night. He's just plain outstanding on both ends of the ball, every night. He's a far bigger reason for the Spurs having the best NBA record than some might realize.
1: Dwyane Wade
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Offense: 29.2 (1)
Defense: 31.0 (2)
Total: 60
The Heat are really getting it together. The more they play together the better they are going to get. In Dwyane Wade and LeBron James there's a real chance that they could present the greatest tandem, not just in the NBA right now but in the entire history of the game. They are second and sixth in the history of the game in Player Efficiency Rating.
Of course PER has its flaws, primarily that it rewards bad shooting and doesn't account for defense. However, Wade and James are both efficient scorers and among the best defenders at their position in the game today, so if anything, their PER understates their value, not the other way around. The more they play together, the better they are going to be. Not even the sky is the limit for these two.,
Kobe fans may hate me for this, but right now D-Wade is the best two guard in the game, and there's really not much of an argument. Kobe has the greater history right now, but Wade is also the better player right now.
