Derrick Rose: Are Chicago Bulls Fans Too Much or Ahead of the Curve?

With Derrick Rose and, for that matter, the Chicago Bulls, it seems there are two sides forming. First there is the "Derrick Rose is a valid MVP candidate" and the "Chicago Bulls are contenders." The other camp looks at the first camp and asks, "Are you kidding me?" 

It's understandable why some people would be incredulous. After all the Bulls were a team that had been hovering around .500 the last couple of seasons. Most fans realize that addition of Carlos Boozer has bolstered the team, but maybe haven't really absorbed just how much better they've gotten. 

The Bulls are currently owners of the third best record in the East and the fifth best record in the NBA. Again, in case you didn't quite catch that, in the entire NBA only four teams have a better record than the Chicago Bulls. They are also fifth in the NBA in point differential.

They have a 17-1 record against teams with .500 records, but all their wins haven't come against the weak. They started their schedule with the toughest schedule in the NBA. They've beaten Dallas in Dallas, as well as Denver, Portland, Los Angeles and Oklahoma City. 

They are the first team in the history of there NBA to have two come from behind wins of 23 or more points in the same season. They also have more 30 points wins than any team in the NBA, even the Heat. 

They own the second best defensive rating in the NBA, are second in rebounding, and 10th in assists. They are winners of  14 of their last 16. Only the Miami Heat have a better record over that stretch. In short there are a lot of reasons to say that the Bulls are among the teams elite. 

And they've done all of this with only having played seven games with their starting five together, and even then Boozer was coming back and Joakim Noah was playing injured. They have yet to play a game with their starting five healthy. 

But then there's the other side. The Bulls were blown out by the Orlando Magic in the return of Boozer by 31 points. They followed that up with another double digit loss to the Boston Celtics, their second loss to Boston in two tries this season. Throw in the 0-2 record against the Knicks and some will point to the Bulls and argue that they are "Bull-ies" picking on the weak.

To which there is the response of the elite teams named above which the Bulls have beaten and the fact that they've not had their starting five playing at full strength yet. Certainly the Bulls played their worse two games on those two nights. 

Then there are the arguments for Rose. He's averaging 23.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game, good  fir the highest total stats of any guard in the NBA. He's raised his three-point shooting percentage from .280 to .394. His eFG percentage is .496. 

He has not one, not two, not three but count 'em four buzzer beaters so far this season to win or send games into overtime. He sank two clutch free throws in Phoenix with 11 seconds left, to send a game into OT and eventually win it. As well he was the catalyst in the two huge comebacks the Bulls have had. 

On top of all that he's led the team through the aforementioned injury problems.

Then there are the arguments against him, some of which have some validity and some of which don't. There are arguments that he doesn't put effort on defense, which is just wrong.

Putting it succinctly, you don't play for Tom Thibodeau and not try on defense. His defensive rating is the fifth lowest among all point guards, and over the last 15 games it's been even better, at 96.7. He surrenders only a 13.7 PER from the PG position. He is emerging as one of the better defending point guards in the NBA

The next criticism which is not true is that he is not clutch. His scoring per 48 minutes in clutch time is a very respectable, if not excellent 40. While 82games doesn't have their sortable stats up yet those numbers are usually good for top 10. When you factor in his assists it certainly debunks that he's not clutch.

Add in that he has the four buzzer beaters and the key free throws he has hit, and certainly the words "clutch" and closer are apt to define him. Yes, he missed one free throw that would have sent a game into overtime. I don't believe that any player is perfect in those situations though, and he's four for four from the field, one for one from three, and three for four from the stripe. That's pretty good clutch shooting. 

Then there are two, more valid criticisms. First there is his scoring efficiency which is a bit low. On average there are 1.22 points scored per field goal attempt. With Rose he scores 1.19 points per field goal attempt. Admittedly this could be better, and is improving slightly as the season moves forward. 

However, it should be noted that there were a couple of nagging injuries that were bothering him for a time in December, particularly the wrist injury. It was evident watching him play that there was a problem. If you look at his numbers discounting the middle of December his numbers are slightly above average at 1.23 per attempt. 

Additionally, there's another minor factor that should be taken into account. Derrick Rose will frequently take the shot no one wants to take, the half court buzzer beater at the end of the quarter. While he's made one of those in 19 attempts, it does impact his efficiency. In fact if you take those shots out of the equation, his efficiency is 1.23. 

So does Rose need to improve his efficiency? Yes, but not as much as some would think. And whether he needs to improve it to win the MVP is another question entirely. Scoring efficiency has never been a great criteria for voters, and votes, not numbers win the MVP award. 

It also helps that now he's been getting to the line a little more often. Since December 18 he's been averaging 1.3 more free throw attempts per game than he was before that. Getting to the stripe more often will help him raise that efficiency. 

The other criticism is turnovers, as in too many of them. Again, this one has some legitimacy. He averages 3.51 turnovers per game. By comparison Deron Williams averages 3.1 and Chris Paul, 2.4 There are a couple of things to note though.  

First, Rose is improving. Since the last loss on Christmas Day, he's been taking much better care of the ball, averaging 9.5 assists and 1.8 turnovers. It's not that that it isn't an issue, it's an issue he is taking care of. 

Second, he is asked to run a different kind of offense than the other two. He is asked to split defenders off the dribble, break down defenses, and then pass out of it or score the ball. Inherent with that offense is the risk of higher turnovers, both because of the risk of losing the ball, and second because driving into the lane you are going to commit some turnovers via personal fouls. 

Now, some of Rose's turnovers are sloppy. He needs to cut those down, if not out. Sometimes he commits lazy passes that are more like tosses than passes. Sometimes he he tries to split defenders when there is just no way he's going to do it. I'm not excusing all of his turnovers, but there are certainly some of them that even Tom Thibodeau calls "good turnovers." 

They are "good turnovers" because they come off of Rose gaining penetration off the dribble. While they might result in a negative outcome that time, it forces double teams and that opens up Boozer.

If they double team Boozer, then the penetration will normally leave a wide open Korver or Deng for the three. In essence the offense revolves around Rose being able to penetrate off the dribble and when he's effective doing it, it's impossible to defend. 

It's how the Bulls are able to pull of some amazing runs, such as the other night against Cleveland when the Bulls scored on 15 of 18 possessions in the quarter, with Rose scoring or assisting on all but three of them. 

And the thing is, when Rose is running the offense, Rose is running the offense. Thibodeau coaches him how to run it, but the plays are called by Derrick. And what you really have to like about what he does, is when he sees someone struggling from the field, like Boozer or Deng, he'll figure out a way to create shots for them. From a 22-year-old to have that kind  of mentality or maturity is just, plainly put, MVPish. 

Unlike other high volume shooters Rose isn't actually "looking" for his shots as much as a paradox as that might seem. Often, when he's scoring, he's actually doing it to involve other players. He's playing chess.

It's like he's saying, "I'm going to knock down this three, and force you to come out and guard me. Then we do that, it's going to leave my boy Boozer man on man in the paint, and you can't take him man on man." He's scoring the three to make a shot for Boozer or Deng or Korver. 

Rose is a high volume shooter but he doesn't have a high volume ego. He's actually shockingly humble for a superstar. It's almost as if he doesn't quite deserve to be one yet.  He might play like he deserves to be a prima dona but he doesn't act like one. 

But I digress. He does commit more turnovers than he should but it is something he is improving, along with his efficiency. Keep in mind that this is a 22-year-old, learning a new system, and who has had to deal with two major blows to his starting lineup so far this season. That's not an excuse in the sense he doesn't need one. Overall, his numbers speak for themselves. It should mitigate a turnover or a point off his efficiency though. 

No. On the whole Rose has to be considered a viable MVP candidate, not in spite of his numbers but because of them. And also because he's making the Chicago Bulls an elite team, if they are not one already. 

The next few weeks will be an opportunity for the Bulls to convince a lot of people regarding their potential and for Rose to show his value. This week the Bulls host the Celtics, next week the Heat, the following week the Mavericks, and finally after that the Magic.

If the Bulls can win three of those games they would be able to establish themselves as not just a second round playoff team, but an honest contender for the finals.