NBA Predictions: Carmelo Anthony's New Team & 20 Other Bold Predictions for 2011
As we get ready to jump into 2011, the NBA sits about six months away from a potential doomsday scenario, also known as a lockout.
In other words, enjoy the NBA action while you can, folks.
While the NBA world recovers from the Miami Heat plastering the Los Angeles Lakers in L.A. on Christmas Day, it’s time to look ahead and see what lies in store for NBA fans in 2011. After all, no NBA champions were crowned on Christmas Day.
So, without further adieu, let’s take a look at where Carmelo Anthony will end up by February 24, and 20 other bold predictions for the NBA in 2011.
(And remember, these are bold predictions. As in, not the most likely scenario. Remember that while you’re yelling at me about why I don’t have the Miami Heat as 2011 NBA champs.)
21. The Suns’ Medical Staff Will Revive Vince Carter’s Corpse
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If there’s one team that Vince Carter should have been praying to be traded to, it had to be the Phoenix Suns.
It’s not just because he’s out from under Dwight Howard’s massive shadow; it’s not even because he now gets to share a backcourt with future Hall-of-Fame PG Steve Nash.
It’s because Phoenix’s medical staff appears to have the fountain of youth. And few NBA players could stand to benefit from Phoenix’s medical secrets like the ever-fragile Carter.
Already, the Suns’ medical team brought Carter down from talking about a surgery that would force him to miss 4-6 weeks, and they now expect him back within a week.
If the Suns could infuse Shaquille O’Neal’s 36-year-old body with a few extra years of basketball vitality, there’s no reason they can’t do the same to Carter. His chances to win an NBA championship are effectively over, but Carter’s landed on the one team that will keep him able to play into his late 30s.
20. The Magic’s Huge Trades Blow Up in Their Faces
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Two Saturdays ago, the Magic hit the self-destruct button on their roster, shipping out Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus and Rashard Lewis for Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark and Gilbert Arenas.
While the Magic got pasted in the two games immediately following the trade and had lost eight of their nine most recent games, Orlando snapped San Antonio’s 10-game win streak on Thursday, then followed it up by upsetting Boston on Christmas and ending their 14-game win streak.
Given that Orlando just beat two of the best teams in the league—and barely got any offensive contribution from Dwight Howard against Boston—it’s that much tougher to argue that these trades didn’t benefit them, at least in the short term. But I’m going to do it anyway.
One thing the Magic gave up and didn’t replace in these trades is frontcourt depth. If Howard gets saddled with two quick fouls (a pretty common occurrence with a big man who draws that many touches), who comes in to replace him down low? Earl Clark?
Unless the Magic make more moves to shore up their frontcourt depth, they won’t be able to hold their own against the Celtics, Bulls and Lakers of the world come playoff time. And that’s the recipe for a quick demise in the playoffs.
19. LBJ + Dwight Howard Team Together to Beat Blake Griffin in Dunk Contest
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Last year, the week before the All-Star Game, Dwight Howard and LeBron James teamed together in a McDonald's Super Bowl commercial to present their own personal dunk contest.
Neither player entered the actual dunk contest last season; instead, all 5’9” of Nate Robinson took home the dunk contest crown for the third time in his career. We get it. Little man can dunk.
This year, if Nate Rob decides to defend his title, he’s got a seriously dangerous contender in Blake Griffin. When you’re already getting a “Top 10 Dunks” highlight reel being compiled a month into your career, you’re a dunk contest natural.
Really, the only chance for anyone to stop Griffin from winning this year’s dunk contest would be if two stellar, All-Star dunkers teamed together. Enter LBJ and Dwight Howard.
Once LeBron and Dwight put their minds and their talents together to combine for one massive super-dunk (think Nate Rob’s dunk over Howard two years ago), Griffin will be going home empty-handed this year.
18. The Knicks Beat the Magic in the First Round of the Playoffs
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Remember how the Magic managed to trade away virtually all of their frontcourt depth to Phoenix two weeks ago? Unless they’ve got more trades cooking, that’s going to come back to haunt Orlando in this year’s playoffs.
After the Celtics, Heat and Bulls lock up the first, second and third seeds in the East (in that order), the Magic and Knicks will fall to fourth and fifth, respectively, setting up a first-round showdown between the two.
Offensively, the Knicks and Magic will likely mirror each other—an inside-outside game revolving around a dominant big man (Howard for Orlando, Amar’e Stoudemire for the Knicks) and a plethora of shooters (Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas and J.J. Redick for the Magic; Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas for the Knicks).
While the Magic will assuredly have the edge on the defensive end (I mean, Mike D’Antoni coaches the Knicks, after all), the Knicks likely have the advantage on offense. One look at how the Knicks torched the vaunted defenses of Chicago and Boston suggests just how offensively potent they can be.
Unless D’Antoni’s short rotation drives his players into the ground by playoffs time, the Knicks will score the biggest first-round upset of the year by knocking out Dwight Howard and the Magic.
17. The Sixers Find a Way to Trade Elton Brand AND Andre Iguodala
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One of the hottest names in the NBA trade rumors market (behind the obvious Carmelo Anthony) has been Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers.
It’s not difficult to see why: At 11-18, the Sixers’ mediocre playoff chances are only alive because they’re in a watered-down Eastern Conference. This team, in its current form, has zero chance of winning an NBA championship, and thus, changes need to be made.
Despite recent reports that Philly’s interest in trading Iggy has died down lately, they’ll eventually realize that having a ceiling of the seventh seed in the East isn’t something to shoot for.
Now, while Elton Brand’s 5-year, $80 million contract appears to be the definition of untradeable, there’s two things working in Philly’s favor here: 1) The Magic and Wizards just managed to trade Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis, who both have worse contracts; and 2) Brand’s actually shown signs of life this year, for a pleasant change.
In the next two months, expect the Sixers to blow themselves up and hand the keys of the franchise over to Evan Turner and Jrue Holdiay.
16. Erik Spoelstra Keeps His Job Through 2011
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As hard as this one may have been to believe a few weeks ago during the height of LeBumpGate, Erik Spoelstra’s hot seat has cooled off considerably as of late. (That’s what an eight-game win streak and beating the two-time defending champs can do for you.)
While Spoelstra may have the Heat steamrolling their competition now, it’s no secret that the Heat’s real season begins in mid-April, when the playoffs commence.
If Spoelstra thought he was under pressure after Heat’s 9-8 start, just wait until the Heat go down two games to one in a playoff series. That goes double if/when the Heat ever choke up their home-court advantage.
Conventional logic may say Spoelstra’s goose is cooked if he can’t guide Miami’s Big Three to an NBA championship this season, but in reality, the league has at least five legitimately solid title contenders this season. The Heat not winning this year isn’t nearly the upset it was presumed to be in the preseason.
Despite not coaching the Heat to a championship in the 2010-11 season, Coach Spo will remain with the Heat throughout the entire year. His defensive mindset is exactly what his Big Three need to elevate their games to championship status.
15. The Rockets Will Trade Yao Ming
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Despite what Daryl Morey recently said about Yao Ming being “different” than most players and an “essential part of the [Rockets] franchise,” the question remains of how many more years the Rockets can invest in a chronically injured big man like Yao.
With a $17 million expiring contract, Yao’s current trade value is as likely as high as it’ll ever be from this point forward in his career. Once he hits free agency next year, there’s no way he commands that type of money, regardless of where he lands.
If you’re the Rockets, you run the risk of upsetting Yao; however, Morey simply needs to explain to Yao that the trade is nothing personal, just business.
What would the Rockets have to lose by facilitating a Carmelo Anthony trade by throwing Yao (and change) into the deal? They’d be losing a guy who very well may never play professional basketball again, and would potentially be gaining long-term assets for their team.
In terms of business, it’s a no-brainer for the Rockets. If Morey can put personal affections for Yao aside, the Rockets will be shopping his expiring contract hard these next two months.
14. Portland Gives Up on the Greg Oden Era
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Much like Houston, the Portland Trail Blazers will soon be facing a decision that could decide the fate of their franchise for the next few years—whether or not to extend Greg Oden’s contract.
In the four years it’s been since Portland made Oden the No. 1 pick in 2007, Oden’s played in 82 out of a possible 328 games.
Much like Rockets GM Daryl Morey, Blazers GM Rich Cho has said all the right things about Oden’s future with the Blazers so far: “Greg is still a part of the team. He is going to be a restricted free agent this summer. I expect him to be a part of the team.”
Then again, Cho going back on his word here wouldn’t exactly be the first time a front office manager told a little white lie to the media.
And with Oden due nearly $9 million next season, the Blazers will need to invest serious thought into the prospect of paying a player that much money if he’s only on court for a quarter of the time possible.
After this season, Cho and the Blazers will decide that Oden’s price tag can’t justify the risk of another injury, and they’ll allow him to head to another team in restricted free agency.
13. Steve Nash Begins Demanding a Trade
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If he hasn’t realized it yet, it won’t be long before it dawns on Steve Nash that Phoenix’s days of being an NBA Finals contender walked out the door when Amar’e Stoudemire left in free agency this summer.
Without Amar’e to finish on the pick-and-roll, the Suns were left with an undersized, perimeter-focused team, which has gotten them a whole lot of nowhere so far this season.
The Suns recently attempted to add some size in their six-player trade with Orlando, acquiring Dwight Howard’s backup, Marcin Gortat. The frontcourt duo of Gortat and Robin Lopez should help the Suns not get pounded on the boards every single night, at the very least.
That said, this team is nowhere near the Western Conference finals, despite making it there only this past season. At this point, they’re not even projected to be a playoff team.
With Nash not getting any younger, he doesn’t have the time left in his career to sit through a rebuilding effort. Once it’s evident the Suns can’t compete with the Western Conference elite, Nash will begin asking Phoenix to allow him to finish out his career on a contender.
12. No Projected Lottery Pick Passes Up the NBA Draft, Despite Lockout Rumors
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In case you haven’t heard, a lockout’s heading towards the NBA.
And one of the biggest questions in terms of the lockout revolves around the NBA draft—will underclassmen resist the urge to declare for the draft, given the uncertainty with the possible lockout?
In this writer’s opinion, the lockout will only have a beneficial effect on NBA draft entrants. No projected lottery pick will pass up the chance to enter the NBA draft, as they’ll want to get into the league and start accruing years of service ASAP.
There’s still going to be a draft, lockout or not (the draft is in late June; the CBA expires July 1), so these players will still get drafted and have teams. They just won’t have contracts yet.
If anything, it’ll prevent the borderline draft picks from declaring, and it’ll keep the cupboards stocked at some lucky college programs next year. But fears of the lockout will not stop the Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irvings of the world from declaring for the draft next season.
11. The Boston Celtics Extend Shaq for Two More Years (Team Option on Year 2)
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Given how well Shaquille O’Neal has been filling his role with the Celtics this season, Boston would be absolutely crazy not to extend Shaq as long as he wants to continue his career and he remains useful.
Kevin Garnett’s been one of the more vocally appreciative Celtics towards Shaq in the early going this season, loving all of the attention Shaq attracts down low on both offense and defense. And when K.G.’s happy, Boston’s happy.
As long as The Big Shamrock is able to throw down alley-oops like this, he’s well worth the $1.3 million Boston’s paying him this season.
Shaq being in the C’s frontcourt gives them a big man advantage over every non-Laker team in the NBA. Against a team like Orlando, Boston can send wave after wave of big men at Dwight Howard, which makes them dangerous even on days like Christmas where Shaq draws six fouls in 12 minutes.
Shaq’s expressed the desire to play another two or three seasons, and the Celtics, who couldn’t be happier with his play this season, should be happy to oblige. They’ll give him a two-year deal with a team option for the second year, just in case Shaq tanks in the next year or two.
10. Raymond Felton Wins Most Improved Player
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How a guy can go from averaging 12.1 points and 5.6 assists one season to 18.3 points and 9.2 assists the next season and be getting little to no attention (in New York, no less!) is completely beyond me.
Yet that’s the tale of Raymond Felton’s season thus far, as Amar’e Stoudemire’s offensive explosion has stolen the entire New York spotlight away from Felton’s breakout season.
Felton’s currently ranked fifth in the NBA in assists and sixth in steals (two per game), as he’s been masterfully orchestrating one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA to this point in the season.
With Kevin Love and Roy Hibbert both having fine breakout seasons of their own, the competition for Most Improved Player will be heated this season.
However, if Felton can continue his near 20-10 averages while guiding the Knicks into the playoffs for the first time in what feels like forever, there’ll be no stopping the Knicks’ new star PG in the race for Most Improved Player.
9. Derrick Rose Wins MVP
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With a broken hand forcing Carlos Boozer to miss the first month of the season and a thumb issue causing Joakim Noah to miss 8-10 weeks, it’s a miracle the Bulls have opened a 4.5-game lead in the Central Division.
You can give most of the credit to the Bulls’ star PG, Derrick Rose.
All he’s done this season is average career-highs in points (24.3), rebounds (4.5), assists (8.4), steals (1.2) and three-point field goals (1.7) per game.
Rose’s ascendance to superstardom has kept the Bulls afloat and in the thick of the Eastern Conference home court race, as they’ve currently got the third best record in the East.
While Boozer and Noah negate some of each others’ value while playing together down low, the Bulls don’t have another consistent option in their backcourt beyond Rose.
Thus, expect Rose to continue posting ridiculous numbers all season, and shocking the NBA world as he takes home the MVP hardware, besting LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki and the rest of the usual MVP suspects.
8. The NBA Will Roll Back Current Player Salaries by 10 Percent
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One thing the NBA owners have made abundantly clear in the ongoing CBA negotiations: There’s zero chance that the player salary structure remains the same in the next CBA.
Currently, NBA players take in a guaranteed 57 percent of the league’s basketball related income, leaving the owners with 43 percent. (HoopsHype’s Matt Tolnick gives a much more detailed explanation of the players/owners CBA fight here.)
Long story short, the NBA projected over $300 million in losses for the league in the 2010-11 season despite record ticket sales, revenues, etc., arguing the league’s current BRI distribution has the NBA locked into insolvency.
Commissioner David Stern has gone on record suggesting that somewhere around $750 million needs to swing in favor of the owners. Meanwhile, the players have shown some willingness to reduce their share of the BRI, but they want owners to have more flexibility in terms of trades and free agent signings.
In the end, the sides will have to agree upon something, and they’ll ultimately decide to roll back current salaries by 10 percent as a method of reducing players’ share of the BRI.
7. The NBA Leaves the Door to Contraction Open With the New CBA
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While the “C-word” may be David Stern’s worst nightmare, he’s made it perfectly clear that the possibility of contracting the league is on the table in these CBA negotiations.
In reality, contraction can’t be seen as anything less than a worst-case scenario, something that could only become a legitimate possibility if the league locked out for multiple months with no resolution in sight. There’s no way the league suddenly shuts down 4-6 teams with little to no warning.
That said, the league could very possibly start a “contraction short-list”—highlighting which teams would be slashed from the league in this worst-case scenario.
If local fans caught wind that their team was on the short-list due to lack of fan support, you’d have to imagine at least a short-term increase in attendance, wouldn’t you?
Regardless, assuming the league doesn’t resort to contraction this time around, Stern will be sure to warn both players and owners that a new CBA doesn’t guarantee the league stays in its current 30-team form, especially if attendance stays pitifully low in certain cities.
6. Carmelo Anthony Lands in Dallas With the Mavericks
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After months of speculation, the Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes will end much like baseball’s recent Cliff Lee-stravaganza—with a surprise suitor swooping in and stealing the superstar from under everyone else’s noses.
In this case, that surprise suitor will be billionaire Mark Cuban and his Dallas Mavericks.
CBSSports.com’s Ken Berger recently reported that Cuban is poised to enter the Melodrama, even if it means only “renting” Carmelo for the season before having him depart in free agency this summer.
While the New Jersey Nets have Troy Murphy’s expiring contract, a plethora of draft picks and Derrick Favors, the Mavs have Caron Butler’s expiring contract, Roddy Beaubois and a few draft picks of their own, not to mention a very creative owner in Cuban.
With Tyson Chandler completely reinventing the Mavericks’ defensive identity, Cuban likely feels that the Mavs are one elite scorer away from being NBA title favorites. (Just imagine that Melo-Dirk-Chandler frontcourt, ladies and gents.)
5. Lakers-Thunder Rematch in First Round of Playoffs Goes 7 Games This Time
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Pau Gasol doesn’t get his miracle Game 6 putback this year.
After nearly bringing the Lakers to the brink of elimination in the first round of last year’s playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder will get another shot at toppling the defending champs this season.
The Lakers, faced with the choice to play for home-court advantage or to stay healthy for the playoffs, will clearly choose the latter every time. Thus, they’re likely to have a regular season similar to the Boston Celtics last year, where they fall to the four seed in their conference before turning it on in the playoffs.
With a dangerous Thunder team as the five seed, the Lakers will grow to regret their regular season mentality soon enough. The year-older, year-more-experienced Thunder will take advantage of their raucous fans, and they won’t drop a single game at home to the Lakers.
Luckily for Kobe Bryant and Co., the Lakers’ home-court advantage at Staples Center will prove too great to overcome for Kevin Durant and his plucky Thunder, and the Lakers will advance past Oklahoma City Thunder for the second straight year.
4. The Lakers Get Knocked Out in the Second Round of the Playoffs
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The alarms have officially been sounded in Laker-land after a 96-80 whipping at the hands of the Miami Heat on Christmas Day.
The Lakers managed to disregard their advantage in the post, fell apart defensively, and their two stars shot 0-for-11 in the first quarter, managing to effectively kill the Staples Center crowd in the process.
Kobe Bryant, fuming in his postgame press conference, effectively said that his teammates currently don’t have the heart of a champion—they’ve grown satisfied with their two rings, and aren’t putting in the work necessary to complete the three-peat.
Unfortunately for Laker fans, there’s no real reason to expect that mentality to change until the playoffs. L.A. may have a few more regular season wake-up calls like this, but fact is, their talent will allow them to coast through most of the regular season, much like LeBron James’ Cavs teams did the past few years.
But unlike last year’s Celtics team, who sleepwalked through the regular season only to explode in the playoffs, this year’s Lakers team won’t be able to follow suit. With the Mavericks, Spurs and Jazz cruising along in the West, the Lakers find themselves falling behind in the dogfight for home-court advantage.
Here’s predicting that the Lakers fall to fourth in the West (behind the Spurs, Mavs and Jazz, in that order), and lose to the Spurs in the second round of the playoffs.
3. D-Wade’s Body Breaks Down, Costs Heat the East
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While the Heat may look all but unstoppable after their Christmas Day massacre of the L.A. Lakers, there’s one thing that can stop Miami in its tracks this season: an injury to one of the Big Three.
And, as we’ve already seen this year, the questions this summer about Dwyane Wade’s ability to stay healthy were entirely legitimate.
Wade’s physical, high-contact style of play may allow him to be one of the NBA’s most electric scorers, but he’s already sprained a wrist and banged knees with Jason Kidd, knocking him out of two games this season.
Unless Heat coach Erik Spoelstra puts more of a premium on keeping Wade healthy for the playoffs, D-Wade’s going to continue to play his game without abandon. While that may mean more highlight-reel plays for Heat fans, that also increases the likelihood of an injury.
Here’s guessing that D-Wade’s body eventually succumbs to the punishment this season, causing the Heat to fall to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.
2. Spurs-Mavs Is an Epic Knock-Down, Drag-Out 7-Game Western Conference Finals
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Remember that time the second-seeded Mavericks flopped against the seventh-seeded Spurs last season in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs? No need to worry about that one here.
With the Mavericks finally having developed a defensive backbone, thanks to Tyson Chandler, the Spurs won’t be able to simply out-tough the Mavs this time around.
Instead, we get to see a showdown of two of the best power forwards in NBA history, as the Dirk vs. Duncan matchup would take front and center stage.
Much like some of the epic Suns vs. Spurs battles of the mid-Aughts, this matchup of the West’s top two seeds will get downright nasty by the time Game 7 rolls around. Expect plenty of hard fouls and bloody noses to go around.
When it’s all said and done, the addition of Melo to the Mavericks’ lineup will be the difference maker, as Melo puts a clinic on Richard Jefferson in Game 7 and brings the Mavs back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2006.
1. Melo Brings Dirk Nowitzki His First NBA Championship
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Once Melo comes to the Mavericks, the frontcourt trio of Anthony, Dirk and Chandler will be too much to handle for the rest of the NBA.
With Jason Kidd orchestrating the offense in the backcourt, and Jason Terry sniping from three-point land, the Mavericks will have the inside-outside balance that allows them to win games however they need to.
After knocking out Kobe Bryant and the two-time defending champion Lakers in the second round of the playoffs, and surviving a seven-game slobberknocker in the Western Conference finals against the Spurs, the Mavs will match up against the Boston Celtics in the 2011 NBA Finals.
While the Boston frontcourt of Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, the two O’Neals and Big Baby Davis will be a handful for Dallas, the Melo-Dirk-Chandler trio with Brendan Haywood in reserves will prove to be the difference-maker.
There won’t be a Dwyane Wade free throw parade this time, folks. And no Paul Pierce emerge-from-a-wheelchair-to-save-the-day moments. Dirk, Melo and the Mavericks will survive any surprises and emerge from the NBA Finals as the 2011 NBA champions.
