Why the Boston Celtics Will Beat the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals

Daily NBA headlines consist of the Los Angeles Lakers’ December blues, Carmelo Anthony trade rumors, the remaking of the Orlando Magic, and the minute-by-minute update on the Miami Heat.

Can’t anyone see the problem here? The issue is that none of those headlines have anything to do with the league’s two best teams—the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs. The Celtics stretched their win streak to 14 last night night with an 84-80 victory over Philadelphia, while the Spurs notched their second win streak of 10 games or more with a 109-103 win against Denver.

Boston is 23-4, beating opponents by an average of 9.4 points per game. San Antonio is 25-3, with average margin of nine.

Since 1999, Boston and San Antonio have combined for five NBA championships and six NBA Finals appearances. Yes, four of the five banners belong to the Spurs, and Boston was at the bottom of the food chain for much of that time, but it’s current three-year run since adding Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett is as good as just about any we’ve seen in the past 10 years.

I’m not here to tell you that we’re going to see these teams squaring off in the NBA Finals in June because until someone beats the Lakers in a seven-game series, there’s no sense in even talking about the Spurs playing in the Finals. Boston will also have some heavy lifting to take care of just to get through the Eastern Conference.

What I’m telling you is that these are the two best teams in the NBA today, Dec. 23. Not the Lakers, not the Mavericks (although they aren’t far behind), not the Heat, and certainly not the Knicks.

If the NBA decided to get its lockout started early and begin the Finals on Christmas day, the Spurs and Celtics would begin the best-of-seven series in San Antonio.

So who would win? Homecourt advantage gives San Antonio the early edge, but not much of one since neither team is losing very often in any city. Let’s break it down position by position.

Point guard: Rajon Rondo v. Tony Parker

Two jet-quick point guards with completely different mentalities and abilities. Parker is a scoring guard with average defensive ability. He is doing a better job getting others involved, averaging a career-high 7.1 assists per game to go along with 17.7 points.

Thanks to Chris Paul and Deron Williams, Rondo is the league’s most underrated and least appreciated play-maker, although he might just be the best there is. He has a pass-first, drive-second, shoot-last mentality, and with three future Hall of Famers by his side, it’s a good one to have. Rondo averages 11.2 points, and a league-leading 13.8 assists. Steve Nash is a distant second at 10.2.

He gets it done defensively, ranking third in the NBA in steals at 2.35 a game, and is one of the best rebounding point guards, averaging 4.6 per game.

Parker guided the Spurs offense through three of their four championship runs, and was MVP of the 2007 Finals. Rondo was a rookie during the Celtics championship season in 2008, and was arguably their best player both last year and now.

Rondo is exceptional defensively and could neutralize Parker enough to negate his edge offensively. Running the offense and getting others involved becomes the tiebreaker.

Edge: Rondo

Shooting guard: Ray Allen v. Manu Ginobili

 One of two key positions pairing players who are now considered elderly in NBA terms. But Allen, 35, and Ginobili, 33, haven’t let their age affect their games.

When you talk about how these two impact a game, you talk about offense. Both are high percentage shooters, with Allen hitting 49 percent and Ginobili 45.5, and both are very good three-point shooters, although Allen holds a significant edge there as well, making 42 percent to Ginobili’s 36.

Both are shooting 88 percent from the foul line, but here’s one area where Ginobili is significantly better than Allen. Manu has been to the line 166 times, while Allen has only shot 79. Few players squirm, scream, whine, cry, and flop better than Ginobili and, clearly, it works for him. Free throws will play a big role in determining who wins this series, and the Spurs should have an edge from the shooting guard spot.

Neither is great defensively at this stage of his career, but they aren’t exactly liabilities either. If they were, these wouldn’t be two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Allen is more efficient offensively, but Ginobili is San Antonio’s first option, whereas Allen is Boston’s third. Manu’s ability to create offense (4.9 apg), and get to the line gives him the slightest nod here.

Edge: Ginobili

Small Forward: Paul Pierce v. Richard Jefferson

 Jefferson was supposed to be the player that kept the Spurs in the championship chase when he came to San Antonio before the 2009-10 season. Perception and reality were totally different there, as Jefferson saw his scoring, rebounding, assist and three point shooting numbers drop off rather significantly last season.

Maybe it was the pressure of playing for a contender, but whatever it was, Jefferson has shaken it off in his second season with the Spurs. He is averaging 14.2 points, making almost 50 percent of his shots and about 46 percent of his three’s. That’s as efficient as you will get from a small forward. Jefferson’s renaissance is a huge reason San Antonio has the NBA’s best record.

With that said, he’s staring Paul Pierce in the eyes. The Truth. The MVP of the 2008 NBA Finals. The Celtics heart and soul. The closer. If you take a look at Pierce’s numbers, they are almost the same as what he finished last season with, in every category but three point percentage (18.2 points, 3.4 assists, five rebounds), which is a bit down.

How did that work out for him? Pierce elevated his game in the playoffs and had Boston seconds away from a second title in three years.

Jefferson went to the NBA Finals twice with the New Jersey Nets, but very early in his career. I know Pierce will be there to deliver at winning time. Jefferson? That, I’m not as certain.

Edge: Pierce

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett v. Tim Duncan

 Boy, what I would give to have it be 2003. Back then, these two were not only the best "four" men in the NBA, but they may have been the two best players in the league.

Eight years later, they are still holding their own, but in admittedly different roles. Neither is their team’s No. 1 option, but let’s be honest, does anyone think the Spurs or Celtics would even advance in the playoffs without Duncan or Garnett?

KG is back after a difficult, injury-riddled 09-10 campaign that saw his numbers and minutes drop to career-lows. The offseason did wonders for those knees, as Garnett is shooting just a shade under his career-high 53.9 percent from the field, and averaging 15.3 points.

He’s also averaging 9.9 rebounds per game, which, surprisingly, is the highest since his final season in Minnesota in 06-07. Defensively, Garnett is as solid as ever, as he showed last night when he blocked Andre Iguodala’s attempt at a game-tying layup in the final seconds to seal a Boston victory.

Duncan is having a season similar to last year’s Garnett. He is averaging a career-low 14 points per game, which is four points less than last year’s output. He’s also on pace to average less than 10 rebounds for the first time in his career, while playing less than 30 minutes a night for the first time.

Career-lows aside, The Big Fundamental is still logging 2.1 blocks per game and shooting a healthy 50 percent from the field. When the game is on the line, the Spurs will run their offense through Duncan because he is certain to get himself or the team the best shot possible.

Garnett has more spring in his step, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen Duncan quietly sit in the weeds before exploding onto the scene. Both men are winners. Both are sure bet Hall of Famers. And both will deliver when it matters most.

Edge: Push

Center: Shaquille O’Neal v. DeJuan Blair

 I actually had to check to see who each team started at center and that tells you all you really need to know. Neither team will have a center on the floor at the end of a game, and if one does, the obvious odds are with the Celtics using Shaq.

For the time that they are on the floor, I don’t think much analysis is needed. O’Neal is an all-time great, four-time champion, three-time NBA Finals MVP, standing five inches taller than Blair and outweighing him by a solid 55 lbs. Yikes. Talk about a mismatch.

I would expect that when Shaq is on the floor, Duncan will be on him and Blair will switch to Garnett, which is also a serious mismatch that favors Boston.

The center position will make the least amount of impact of any position in this series, and you can expect all the noise to be made by The Big Green, or Shaq Leprechaun, or whatever it is he calls himself these days.

Edge: O’Neal

Benches

 The Spurs bench is made up of George Hill, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Antonio McDyess, and Tiago Splitter. Off of Boston’s pine comes Nate Robinson, Marquis Daniels, Glen Davis, Von Wafer and Semih Erden. My guess is when Delonte West and Jermaine O’Neal are ready to play, Wafer and Erden will not be in the rotation.

The first two players off the bench generally make the most impact. For San Antonio, that would be Bonner and Hill, and for Boston, it would be Robinson and Davis.

Bonner and Hill combine to average 18.5 points, six rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 49.6 minutes per night.

Robinson and Davis combine for 20.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in 47.8 minutes.

That says Boston’s duo outplays San Antonio’s on most nights, and that doesn’t factor in potential contributions from West and O’Neal, for whom I could argue are better than anyone on the Spurs’ bench. The Celtics bench is quicker, more athletic, and more experienced then San Antonio’s.

If I were Gregg Popovich, I would consider starting Hill and bringing Ginobili off the bench to offset Boston’s advantage, as he has done in years past.

Edge: Boston

Coaches: Doc Rivers v. Popovich

 This isn’t as big of a landslide as Shaq and DeJuan Blair, but the numbers don’t lie. Popovich has been doing this longer and at a much higher rate of success.

He has coached the Spurs since 1996-97, the same year the organization drafted Duncan No. 1 overall. Sweet deal there, eh? In those 14+ seasons, Popovich’s record is 761-365 (.676) in the regular season, and 106-69 (.606) in the postseason.

“Pop” is 4-0 in the NBA Finals, was named NBA Coach of the Year in 2002-03, and has failed to qualify for the playoffs just once.

Rivers is in his 12th season as a head coach and, like Popovich, hasn’t received the credit he deserves. He led three really bad Orlando teams to the playoffs in his five seasons there, but never advanced out of the first round. His first three years in Boston brought one playoff appearance and two seasons where the Celtics combined to win 57 games.

His fortunes changed with the arrival of Garnett and Allen, and he coached them to a title and two finals appearances in three seasons. Rivers’ record is 474-384 (.552), and 46-40 (.535) in the postseason.

Popovich has three more rings than Rivers, and has never lost in the Finals. And while Rivers doesn’t get the respect he deserves, there is no question who a majority of NBA owners, GM’s, players, and fans would choose between the two if their team needed to win one game.

Edge: Popovich

Prediction

 Boston has the edge at point guard, small forward, center, and bench. San Antonio has it at shooting guard and coach, and the two pushed at power forward.

However, you would be hard pressed to find a spot where either team has a decided advantage. If I had to pick one, and center doesn’t count because I don’t think we’ll see them when the games are decided, I would say it comes from the benches.

Boston’s current bench, or most of it, helped it reach the NBA Finals last June, whereas San Antonio’s was sent home in the semifinals. It is already more productive than the Spurs’ and has more potential with injured players on the mend.

Both teams have multiple players who will be under consideration for the Hall of Fame, and both are great defensively. I have a hard time seeing Parker outplay Rondo, or Pierce being outplayed by Jefferson and, to me, those are the two biggest match-ups in this series because Duncan and Garnett will play to a draw.

San Antonio could pull it off with homecourt, and Popovich out-coaching Rivers, but while Popovich’s history is better than Rivers’, Doc’s teams have had more recent success.

In predicting the closest of series, it comes down to modern day sport’s favorite adage- “what have you done for me lately?”

And that’s why I say Boston in 6.

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