Orlando Magic: Why They're the New Favorites in the Eastern Conference

Sometimes it's not what a basketball player does that makes him valuable, but what he allows other players to do.

A good point guard makes other players better by "creating" open looks at the basket—either by driving into the lane and drawing defensive help or pushing the pace and forcing the defense to scramble.  This is why Steve Nash won two MVPs in Phoenix—the field-goal percentages of Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Suns' All-NBA forwards, went up dramatically after Nash came to the desert.  He made them better offensive players.

The converse is also true.  Just as Nash made Marion a better offensive player, Marion made Nash a better defensive player.  In Dallas, the Mavericks had no defensive stoppers, and Nash was forced to defend Mike Bibby and Bobby Jackson in the playoffs—not a good look for him.  In Phoenix, Marion could guard quick point guards and Nash could be "hid" on guys like Bruce Bowen instead of sticking Tony Parker.  

** This is why I think Marion, not Nash, was the Suns' MVP.  Defense wins championships, and Marion was an amazing defensive player.  The number of guys who could shut down Dirk Nowitzki and Tony Parker can be counted on one finger.  Nash, at 36, is putting up the same numbers as he did in his MVP seasons for a Phoenix team that recently blew itself up because it was underperforming.  Offensive numbers from the backcourt aren't going to mean much if you don't have any defensive stoppers in the frontcourt. **

That's the prism through which people should view the blockbuster series of trades Orlando initiated this morning.  None of the key players Orlando picked up—Hedo Turkoglu, Earl Clark, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas—play any defense.  This was a problem in Phoenix and Washington, but it won't be in Orlando.  Dwight Howard plays defense; they just need to worry about "getting buckets." 

When you have a 6'10", 240-pound center with a 7'4" wingspan and a 35' vertical leap patrolling the middle of the lane, defense is really easy.  You play face-to-face defense on your man, and you contest his jumpers, because if he blows by you, he's not scoring at the rim.  There's a big guy with really long arms who jumps really high preventing it.

For example, if you break down his statistics, Hedo Turkoglu is the same player he was two years ago.

** He's a little out of shape, but he was playing for bad teams on his last contract.  What did it matter?  Basketball players are human beings who respond to incentives like anyone else, if you know you are not getting another contract from your employer, and your work isn't going to make a difference, and you're paid either way—where's your motivation?  Now that he's playing meaningful basketball again, I expect Hedo to hit the treadmill and put down the pastries.  He's got plenty of time—NOTHING matters until April, anyway. **    

In Toronto and Phoenix, playing in front of Andrea Bargnani and Robin Lopez, he was a defensive catastrophe, with a defensive rating of 113 (the number of points his team allows per 100 possessions when he's on the floor).  

This meant his minutes went down, from 36.6 in Orlando to 30.7 in Toronto and 25.2 in Phoenix.  His usage rate (the percentage of times the offense ran through him) followed a similar pattern—23.0 to 18.1 and 17.0.  Which of course impacted his per-game statistics, but his PER (a measure of how efficient an offensive player is regardless of his number of touches) stayed fairly constant, slipping only from 14.8 to 13.4.  

But in Orlando, the story changes.  In his last season with the Magic, Turkoglu's defensive rating was a solid 104, his best rating since he was 23 years old.  Thanks to Dwight's shot-blocking, Hedo's defense becomes tolerable and the Magic can exploit his offensive talents, mainly his ability to act as a point guard and run the pick and roll at 6'10".  So Howard makes Turkoglu a better player better then Nash ever could.

It's the same story for Richardson and Arenas, score-first guards who have never played much defense.  With defensive ratings of 114 and 113 respectively, all their offensive contributions didn't mean much to their old teams.

** A center's job is to protect the cylinder, just as a goalie's job in hockey is to protect the net.  You don't have to play as good defense in front of Patrick Roy (one of the NHL's greatest goalies) as you do in front of an average goalie—Roy is going to block a lot more shots!

And if you don't have a good goalie, it doesn't matter all that much how good your wings and centers are.  Eventually in the playoffs they are going to run into an excellent goalie, and since good defense trumps good offense in almost every sport, they are probably going to lose. **

So the Magic have had the best "goalie" the last few years—they have just been failed by their offensive shot-creators.  In the 2009 NBA Finals, Turkoglu and Lewis could not create a lot of looks against Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza, and the Magic scored over 100 points only once (the game they won, Game 3).  

It was a similar story in last season's Eastern Conference Finals, with Boston holding the Magic to under 100 points in five of the six games, since they could sick Rajon Rondo on Jameer Nelson and Tony Allen on Vince Carter, the only two perimeter players on the Magic who could create their own shot off the dribble.

But now?  Now it changes.

Orlando has four shot-creators on the perimeter—Turkoglu, Nelson, Richardson and Arenas.  Since all four can shoot three-pointers, the Magic can keep their 4-out system of four three-point shooters around Dwight Howard, and slide Ryan Anderson (a 6'10" forward with a career 36.3 three-point percentage) into Rashard Lewis' spot.  

All of a sudden, their matchups with Boston, Miami and Chicago look a lot different.  Thanks to Howard, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year who seems certain to win the next five, too, the Magic will always be an elite defense—they currently have the fifth-rated defense in the NBA.  But now they have four guys who can get 20 every night surrounded by the best finisher at the rim in the game (Howard) and three-point shooters in J.J. Redick, Anderson and Quentin Richardson.  

In dealing Lewis, the Magic now only have one key vulnerability—Anderson isn't nearly the defender, so Orlando will have trouble dealing with two scoring big men.  But none of the elite Eastern teams can exploit that—Anderson can easily do a competent job on Joakim Noah (Bulls), Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) and Joel Anthony (Heat).

A potential matchup with the Lakers in the NBA Finals is a different story, but there's no reason to worry about that if you are the Magic.  No team has won four straight conference championships since Russell's Celtics; all those playoff games are a lot of wear and tear on the players' bodies, and L.A. is only a sprained ankle from any of their top four players from being in a lot of trouble.

The big picture, with Miami still feeble inside and Chicago lacking offensive firepower from the perimeter besides Derrick Rose, is this trade sets up an epic rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, but Orlando's coming loaded with firepower instead of a Super Soaker (Vince Carter's rapidly deteriorating offensive game).

Dwight Howard's ability to make his defensively challenged teammates better means the Magic could afford to add a bunch of one-dimensional scorers to push themselves back into the NBA Finals.  That's why he, as long as he stays uninjured, should be the MVP of the 2010-2011 season.

** Note: the following factors are not all that relevant to Orlando's chances at winning the East:

1) Is Dwight Howard “tough” enough to win the East? And has he received the Autobot “Matrix of Leadership”?

2) Gilbert Arenas’ gun charge. Arenas is no longer the best player on a team going nowhere, he is a key cog in a championship contender. This tends to have a dramatic impact on the attitude of even the most ignorant of players — see Ron Artest in LA or Stephen Jackson in San Antonio.

3) Will the Magic have the right chemistry? Will there be enough shots to go around? All three players Orlando acquired—Arenas, Richardson and Turkoglu—are on the downsides of the career. And all three are seen as dubious pieces for various non-basketball related reasons. And since all can shoot the ball effectively, none should have a huge problem playing off the ball. They will be willing to do whatever it takes to win.

Jay-Z: No matter where you go, you are what you are player / And you can try to change but that’s just the top layer / Man, you was who you was ‘fore you got here. **

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