Fantasy Basketball: Is It Time To Sell High on Manu Ginobili? Not So Fast...

This is Manu Gilobili’s ninth season in the NBA and he is currently averaging a career high in points per game. He’s also playing a career-high 32 minutes per game at the not-so-ripe age of 33.

Add to it that in the six games he’s played in December, Ginobili is only averaging 14.5 points and 28.7 minutes, and it would seem you have yourself an ideal sell-high candidate.

But I’m not so sure that’s the right move to make here.

The first thing you are going to look at when you are analyzing the stats for Manu this year is his season scoring average of 20 points a night versus his career average of 15.2.

That’s a pretty big leap for a guy in his ninth season, but the difference can be justified and might not be the fluke that some seem to think it is.

Let’s look at some of the factors contributing to this change. The big thing here is that while the team is largely the same as it has been for the last few years, it is a different team at the same time.

The biggest difference is that Manu Ginobili is option one on the offensive end of the court, which is something that has never happened before. Up until this year, this has been Tim Duncan’s team on offense and Ginobili was never better than the second option, sometimes third with Tony Parker’s penchant for scoring.

There is no denying though that at this point, Duncan is not what he used to be offensively. The Spurs are more interested in preserving Duncan’s legs for the playoffs than seeing him dominate on offense, and I don’t think his minutes are going to increase anytime soon

Even when he is on the court, he’s just not as effective as he used to be.

Another big difference on the Spurs is that Tony Parker is looking more like a balanced point guard this year than the score-first point he sometimes falls into.

Currently, Parker is averaging a career high seven assists per game, and while he still barely leads the team in shot attempts per game, his total field goal attempts are below what they used to be a few years ago when he was at 15 and even 17 shots per game.

Manu is one of the better off the ball players in the league with a motor that doesn’t stop and so, if Parker is looking to make plays for others, then Manu is going to find a way to take advantage of it.

The other big factor in the increase in points for Manu is the increase in time on the floor. Ginobili has only averaged over 30 minutes per game one other time in his career.

Because of that, we have to ask a couple of questions: Will Manu sustain these minutes, and if he does, will he wear down at some point?

Like I mentioned at the top of the article, Ginobili has only played 28.7 minutes in his six December games, but the Spurs have blown out their opponents in four of those six games, and in the two that were close, Manu played 33 and 34 minutes.

It seems the Spurs are finally committed to making Ginobili a regular starter and giving him the minutes he deserves. The team has a playoff mindset and so there is the risk that they may cut back on minutes for Parker and Manu at some point, but that’s pretty hard to predict.

As for whether or not Ginobili is going to wear down, there isn’t a history of breaking down late, and in fact, his best basketball last year was played in February through April.

He might not have as fresh of legs this year when he gets to those last couple months, but I still don’t see him declining because of extra time on the court. Like I said earlier, there are few guys with Ginobili’s motor, and he just doesn’t seem to be the kind of player who is going to wear down.

The real X Factor is Ginobili’s history of injury problems, which will always be hanging over the head of the Spurs guard. This is the one thing that makes me step back and wonder about selling high, but it’s the same risk you took when you drafted him.

Add to all of this talk about scoring, Ginobili’s value isn’t even ultimately tied to just his scoring. He’s a career 15 points per game guy who was being taken in the fourth round in drafts.

It’s because he’s an across the board contributor.

He’s averaging 3.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.4 3-pointers per game along with 90-percent FT shooting. The scoring boost is just gravy for a guy who contributes in so many categories and doesn’t hurt you in any.

Ultimately, it’s hard to sell high on a guy that not enough people are high on.

Manu has the same stigma as many of the other Spurs, and people just don’t value him at what he’s worth, which makes him hard to trade and typically easy to get for less than he’s worth.

He may not average 20 points per game, but regardless, he’s bordering on being a top 25–30 player, and some people don’t consider him much better than the 40–50 range.

Selling high only works when you can get more value than a guy is worth, and that’s not easy to do with Manu Ginobili.

For more fantasy basketball analysis check out The Rotoprofessor.