San Antonio Spurs: How Long Will Tim Duncan's Reduced Role Last?
So far, there have been two tales to tell during the Spurs' franchise-best 20-3 start to lead the NBA and get a firm grasp on the Western Conference. One of those tales has been the Spurs' new run-and-gun offense that is proving to be one of the best in the league.
The other has been the fact that they are accomplishing such feats with a reduced role to their star player in Tim Duncan.
With a career low in minutes at 28.8 per game directly contributing to a career-low of 13.4 points per game, Duncan has recently taken somewhat of a back seat role in his team's early season surge.
While he may not admit to enjoying his new role, he definitely welcomes the rest for his 34-year-old knees that have 1,000 regular-season and 170 playoff games on them over 13-and-a-quarter seasons.
The key question here is, how long will this reduced role last?
He has already proven he is willing and ready to step in (even without permission) to be the leader he has always been. However, his team has done very well with him resting so much, so if it's not broke, don't fix it. Right?
Perhaps, but the time will come when the schedule will get tougher and Duncan's presence and veteran leadership will be needed more. Here is a list of some of the season's toughest stretches and when the fourth-quarter cheerleader could begin to see more playing time.
December 28: No More Tasty Cupcakes Here
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That first opportunity to see Duncan more often might come sooner than later. Beginning with the Los Angeles Lakers visiting town on December 28, the Spurs' schedule will begin get much more difficult with more games on the road and against tougher opponents.
A stretch that includes six games in a 11 days, four of them on the road and all against tough, quality opponents, might require Duncan to play a little more often.
After playing the Lakers at home, the Spurs will head to Dallas, come back home for the Oklahoma City Thunder and then take a three game road trip to visit some of the East's tougher teams in New York, Boston and Indiana on January 7.
All six of these teams would be playoff-bound today with Indiana being the only one currently holding losing record (11-12), but they have proven to be no slouch, especially on offense. Each team also has quality big men that require a good amount of defensive attention (Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, etc), which is where Duncan comes into play.
His defensive presence will definitely be needed during this stretch, and don't expect any blowouts that will allow him to sit out for so many fourth quarters.
January 22: A Prequel Of What's Ahead
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Beginning January 22, the Spurs will have a chance to see where they will stand prior to the annual Rodeo Road Trip.
After a home game against the NY Knicks on the 21st, they will head straight to New Orleans to face the Hornets (again), followed by games at Utah and Golden State. That's a lot of miles to travel in just five days, especially when there's a lot more to come.
While the Spurs have beaten all three of these teams on the road already, neither one will be a cake walk.
Duncan may or may not be needed as much in these games (probably mostly in Utah), but the Spurs will want to make sure they have a good record going into the Rodeo Road Trip, so he probably won't let them waste games for his sake.
February 1: Off They Go On The Rodeo Road Trip
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Here it is. The toughest stretch of the season (or at least the most exhausting).
After a brief return home to play Houston, the Spurs will embark back to the West coast to begin nine straight road games beginning with Portland on February 1. Then they will travel to Los Angeles to play the Lakers in the toughest game of the trip, followed by Sacramento the next night.
After a brief three days off, they will then head East to play the final six games of the trip in Detroit on February 8, followed by Toronto the next night, Philadelphia, Washington, the Little General in New Jersey and finally concluding with a difficult game in Chicago on February 17.
It is important to note that unlike previous seasons, the All-Star break will not act as mid-term resting period, considering it happens after the Chicago game. While this is not toughest group of teams the Spurs will play against, it will be an exhausting trip. Everyone, including Duncan, will need to contribute.
The Rodeo Road Trip has always been a time of bonding for the Spurs, so as well as everything is going now, imagine how much better it could be then.
March: The Time To Act Is Now
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March has often been when the Spurs start to peak before the playoffs, and they'll need to do it again this season.
In a streaky month where they will play 16 games, four back-to-backs and eight teams who are currently playoff-bound (a number that could easily increase by then), Duncan will have to start preparing for the inevitable increase in playing time that will likely come during the playoffs.
March will include consecutive home games against Miami and the Lakers, as well as two three-game road trips. One includes Houston, Miami and Dallas during the middle of month, and the second includes Denver, Portland and Memphis less than a week later.
I guess it's only fitting that March ends with a visit from Boston and The Big Shamrock named Shaq.
If Duncan hasn't seen an increase in playing time yet, he will now.
April 9: The Finishing Touch
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The Spurs will finish off the regular season with a tough three-game stretch that could very easily affect where they end up in the final standings going into the playoffs. After their final home game against the always tough Utah Jazz, the Spurs will finish their season visiting the Lakers and Phoenix Suns in back-to-back games.
All three of these teams will likely be jockeying for a good playoff seed or birth. They could also very well meet up in the first or second round of the playoffs, so the Spurs will want to end the regular season on a high note.
For that reason I imagine coach Greg Popovich will not be resting his stars too much in the final games unless the Spurs are the top seed and won't give anything up going into the playoffs. However, they'll want to have momentum, so I expect it will be full steam ahead.
The Playoffs: Full Steam Ahead!
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Once the playoffs arrive it will be full force Spurs all the way!
Hopefully everyone will be in perfect health and ready to fight for a fifth championship. Despite several tough stretches and a probable increase in minutes building up to this point, Duncan should be rested and ready to go.
If Pop plans on having to play him 35-plus minutes per game during the playoffs, then he will have to steadily increase his minutes as the season wears on. Duncan is a lot more to the Spurs than the fourth leading scorer, and as the schedule gets tougher, his role will increase, especially on the defensive end.
He may be enjoying several fourth quarters off and only 29 minutes per game right now, but that could quickly change as soon as as next week. Enjoy being a sideline cheerleader while it lasts, Timmy, because it won't be for much longer.
