Maryland Basketball: Terps Clutching Up in the Clutch

After letting another important game slip away yesterday v. Boston College, the Maryland basketball team has some serious thinking to do.

Sure, the 7-4 Terps lost their four games by an average of only five points, and all those opponents—except BC—were or were recently ranked in the AP top 25.  But that whitewashes the fact that Maryland was competitive in, even controlling, those games. 

"Was" is, of course, the operative word in the previous sentence. Maryland's momentum has so far had a disturbing habit of evaporating in crunch time. A confluence of factors are working together to bring out Maryland’s worst when it matters most. 

According to my crack research, Maryland was down by an average of 2.25 points (including a two-point lead on BC and a tie v. Temple) at the two-minute mark of each game. And yet, the Terps went on to lose those games by an average of five, meaning their deficits more than doubled in those final 120 seconds. Why?

During that time span, the Terps shot 7-25 (or 28 percent) from the field and 4-10 from the free throw line. This is the same team that ranks second in the ACC in overall field goal percentage with 48.5 and third in scoring offense with more than 78 points per game.

Defense also played a role. In those two all-important minutes, those four opponents went 5-10 from the floor, or 12 percentage points over the 38 percent FG clip the Terps allow on the whole (second best in the ACC). Combined with free throws (which I know increase in the final minutes of close games), the opponents averaged nearly eight points in that same stretch. 

Again, I realize that number is skewed because of the higher incidence of free throws, so let’s cut the free throws in half. After that, you still get about five points per opponent in those two minutes, which over a 40-minute game would factor out to 100—far more than the 65 Maryland allows on the whole.

These statistics, and the efforts that gave rise to them, clearly and directly correlate back to every one of the team’s weaknesses: Poor free throw shooting (only magnified down the stretch), inexperience, and the lack of a steady shooter or floor leader.

Senior guards Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie have been decent, but can’t consistently get their own shots or create shots for others. Terrell Stoglin has been terrific this year, and is currently second on the team in scoring with 11 points per contest, but he tends to force bad shots down the stretch, and has not shown the ability (or the willingness?) to distribute the basketball.

Starters Sean Mosley and Dino Gregory both make like Casper when the heat cranks up. And no one seems able to close out on shooters, at the best of times employing instead the ever popular ah-I’m-just-gonna-foul-him defense.

The good news is that some of these problems appear reparable. Stoglin and Pe’Shon Howard will hopefully get better with more game experience—each will certainly get plenty of chances to mature, and to perhaps supplant Tucker and/or Bowie in the starting rotation. Defense can improve in practice.

But the best (and biggest) opportunity for improvement lies at the free throw line. Unfortunately, however, the team is somehow finding a way to actually regress, having managed only 59.3 percent in their last three contests (two of them losses). It was encouraging to see Jordan Williams go 3-4 from the line against BC, but he’s still at 53 percent for the year. Although Jordan is Maryland’s best player and rightful first, second, and third scoring option, going to war with such a poor free throw shooter at your vanguard is like rooting for a boxer with three fingers on his left hand. His right can be more devastating, his toes more twinkly than anyone else’s, but eventually, inevitably, the opponent is going to make him throw the left.

This is not to let Jordan’s teammates off the hook; these miserable percentages are group efforts. But like sand through the hourglass, these games are going to keep slipping away at the end if Jordan and company can’t shore this up. Luckily, poor free throw shooting can be fixed by, you know, shooting free throws. I know; I’ve done it. If I can do it, so can they.

The ACC is definitely down this year. But if Maryland and its fans are assuming this means a glut of winnable games, then hopefully Boston College will serve as cold water on that dream. Because, in my opinion, it’s going to mean that a lot of teams will be hungry for wins, especially against a squad like Maryland’s that cannot simply outclass its opponents.

Maryland fans shouldn’t kid themselves; this team can make the dance, but it is going to take some work. I see dogfights on the horizon, and the Terps have loose screws to tighten if they’re going to start competing at maximum levels when that effort is of maximum importance.

(For this post and plenty more news, commentary, and ill-conceived attempts at humor on all things Terps, visit us over at Shell Games or follow us on Twitter @Terpsblog.)